10/30: New York Governor: Solid Democrat

Among likely voters including early voters and those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, Democrat Andrew Cuomo has a 19 percentage point lead over Republican Carl Paladino in the race for Governor in New York.

Cuomo receives 56% to Paladino’s 37%.  This Marist Poll data was collected from Tuesday, October 26, 2010 through Thursday, October 28, 2010 with 5 days until Election Day.

Click Here for Complete October 30, 2010 NY Governor Marist Poll Release and Tables

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New York: Governor
Question: If next week’s election for Governor in New York State were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are: [If undecided: If you had to decide today, are you leaning more towards:]
	Cuomo	Paladino	Other	Undecided
NY LV Oct. 30, 2010	56%	37%	3%	4%
NY LV Oct.  22, 2010	60%	37%	1%	2%
Party Registration
Democrat	84%	12%	1%	3%
Republican	23%	67%	6%	5%
Non-enrolled	49%	42%	6%	4%
October 30, 2010 Marist Poll New York Likely Voters including early voters and those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate N= 415 MOE +/- 5%. Totals may not add to 100 due to rounding.

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Democrats Close Enthusiasm Gap

41% of registered voters are very enthusiastic about voting in Tuesday’s elections.  Although Democrats enjoy a wide party enrollment advantage in New York State, up until now, Republicans were far more enthusiastic about voting than Democrats.  But, that’s no longer the case.  46% of Republicans and 43% of Democrats currently have a high level of enthusiasm.

In the previous Marist survey, 53% of Republicans were very enthusiastic about voting on Election Day to 39% for the Democrats.

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New York:  Those Very Enthusiastic to Vote 2010
Question: Thinking about next week’s elections overall, would you say you are very enthusiastic, somewhat enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all about voting in the elections next week?
	October 30, 2010	October 22, 2010
NY Registered Voters	41%	43%
Party Registration
Democrat	43%	39%
Republican	46%	53%
Non-enrolled	33%	35%
Tea Party Supporters	58%	60%
Enthusiasm of Candidates’ Supporters
Voters for Cuomo	36%	37%
Voters for Paladino	54%	57%
October 30, 2010 Marist Poll New York Registered Voters including early voters N= 805 MOE +/- 3.5 %.  Totals may not add to 100 due to rounding.

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Key Findings:

• Andrew Cuomo leads Carl Paladino among likely voters by a very wide margin in New York City and has a double-digit lead in the suburbs of New York City.  Cuomo and Paladino are closely matched upstate.  Cuomo also leads Paladino by more than two-to-one among women, but among men, the contest is tight.
• 69% of those who are likely to vote in New York strongly support their choice of candidate.  More Cuomo supporters — 77% — compared with Paladino backers — 58% — are firmly committed to their choice of candidate.
• Cuomo is viewed favorably by 57% of likely voters statewide while 38% perceive him unfavorably.  Paladino is seen favorably by 31% of likely voters while 63% have a negative impression of him.
• 73% of registered voters view Cuomo as fit to be governor.  21% do not.  32% perceive Paladino as fit to hold this office.  59% do not.
• Among all registered voters in New York, Cuomo takes 62% to Paladino’s 28%.
• 58% of registered voters rate the job Attorney General Andrew Cuomo is doing in office as excellent or good.
• 17% of registered voters in New York State view the job Governor David Paterson is doing in office as excellent or good.  This matches Paterson’s lowest approval rating since he assumed office.
• 78% of registered voters think the state is headed in the wrong direction.

About The Marist Poll’s Methodology:

Telephone numbers were selected based upon a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the state. The exchanges were selected to ensure that each region was represented in proportion to turnout in comparable elections. In an effort to increase coverage, this land-line sample was supplemented by respondents reached through random dialing of cell phone numbers. The land-line and cell phone samples were then combined.

Complete Marist Poll Methodology

Related Marist Poll Releases:

10/22: Cuomo Opens Up Big Lead Over Paladino

10/30: New York U.S. Senate – Schumer/Townsend: Solid Democrat

According to this Marist Poll, Democrat Chuck Schumer has a wide lead over Republican Jay Townsend in the race for U.S. Senate in New York.  Schumer leads Townsend by 24 percentage points among likely voters including early voters and those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.

Schumer garners 60% to 36% for Townsend.  This data was collected from Tuesday, October 26, 2010 through Thursday, October 28, 2010 with five days until Election Day.

Click Here for Complete October 30, 2010 NY U.S. Senate Marist Poll Release and Tables

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New York: U.S. Senate Likely Voters
Question: If next week’s election for U.S. Senate in New York State were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are: [If undecided: If you had to decide today, are you leaning more towards:]
	Schumer	Townsend	Other	Undecided
NY LV Oct. 30, 2010	60%	36%	1%	3%
NY LV Oct. 22, 2010	63%	35%	1%	1%
Party Registration
Democrat	87%	10%	<1%	3%
Republican	28%	68%	2%	2%
Non-enrolled	54%	36%	4%	6%
October 30, 2010 Marist Poll New York Likely Voters including early voters and those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate N= 415 MOE +/- 5%. Totals may not add to 100 due to rounding.

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Key Findings:

• Schumer leads Townsend among likely voters by a very wide margin in New York City and has majority support over Townsend in both the suburbs of New York City and upstate.
• 75% of voters who are likely to vote in New York strongly support their choice of candidate for this race.  80% of Schumer’s supporters are firmly behind him while a majority of Townsend’s — 65% — strongly back him.
• 64% of likely voters view Schumer favorably while 32% have a lesser opinion of him.  38% of likely voters have a positive perception of Townsend.  30% do not.  He is unknown to 32%.
• 55% of registered voters approve of the job Chuck Schumer is doing in the U.S. Senate.
• Schumer leads Townsend by 38 percentage points among all registered voters in New York.  Schumer receives 66% to 28% for Townsend among the statewide electorate.

New York U.S. Senate – Gillibrand/DioGuardi: Solid Democrat

In the race for U.S. Senate in New York between Kirsten Gillibrand and Joe DioGuardi, Gillibrand has a 15 percentage point lead among likely voters including early voters and those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  Gillibrand nets 55% to 40% for DioGuardi.  This Marist Poll data was collected from Tuesday, October 26, 2010 through Thursday, October 28, 2010 with five days still to go before Election Day.

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New York: U.S. Senate Likely Voters
Question: If next week’s election for U.S. Senate in New York were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are: [If undecided: If you had to decide today, are you leaning more towards:]
	Gillibrand	DioGuardi	Other	Undecided
NY LV Oct. 30, 2010	55%	40%	1%	4%
NY LV Oct. 22, 2010	56%	38%	1%	5%
Party Registration
Democrat	80%	14%	<1%	6%
Republican	26%	71%	1%	2%
Non-enrolled	51%	45%	1%	3%
October 30, 2010 Marist Poll New York Likely Voters including early voters and those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate N= 415 MOE +/- 5%. Totals may not add to 100 due to rounding.

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Key Findings:

• Nearly two-thirds of likely voters in New York City support Gillibrand.  She has a slim majority in the suburbs of New York City and upstate.
• 65% of voters who are likely to vote in New York strongly support their choice of candidate in this contest, up from 57% in Marist’s previous survey.  The intensity of support for DioGuardi’s candidacy among his backers has risen.  68% of likely voters who support him say they firmly do so.  This is up from 54% previously.  63% of Gillibrand’s supporters are strongly committed to her.  59% reported the same in Marist’s earlier poll.
• Gillibrand is viewed favorably by 56% of likely voters.  36% perceive her unfavorably.  DioGuardi is thought highly of by 45% of likely voters.  31% view him unfavorably.  He is unknown to 24% of this state’s electorate.
• 36% of registered voters rate Gillibrand’s job performance as U.S. Senator as either excellent or good.
• Among registered voters statewide, the margin between the candidates is wider than it is among those likely to cast their ballot.  Gillibrand receives the support of 55% of registered voters statewide to 32% for DioGuardi.
• 45% of registered voters in New York State approve of President Barack Obama’s job performance.
• Half of registered voters in New York — 50% — think we’ve turned the corner and the nation’s economic problems are behind us.  45% say the worst of the nation’s economic problems are yet to come.
• 63% of registered voters think President Obama inherited today’s economic conditions from the previous administration.  32% say the economy is a result of Obama’s own policies.

About The Marist Poll’s Methodology:

Telephone numbers were selected based upon a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the state. The exchanges were selected to ensure that each region was represented in proportion to turnout in comparable elections. In an effort to increase coverage, this land-line sample was supplemented by respondents reached through random dialing of cell phone numbers. The land-line and cell phone samples were then combined.

Complete Marist Poll Methodology

Related Marist Poll Releases:

10/22: NY U.S. Senate Race: Schumer Leads Townsend by 28 Percentage Points Among Likely Voters

10/30: Colorado U.S. Senate: Tossup

In the race for U.S. Senate in Colorado, Democrat Michael Bennet and Republican Ken Buck are neck and neck.

According to this McClatchy-Marist Poll, Buck receives 49% to 45% for Bennet among likely voters including early voters and those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  This data was collected from Tuesday, October 26, 2010 through Thursday, October 28, 2010 with five days until Election Day.

Click Here for Complete October 30, 2010 CO McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables

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Colorado: U.S. Senate Likely Voters
Question: If next week’s election for U.S. Senate in Colorado were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are: [If undecided: If you had to decide today, are you leaning more towards:]
	Bennet	Buck	Other	Undecided
CO LV Oct. 30, 2010	45%	49%	3%	3%
CO LV Oct. 4, 2010	42%	50%	2%	6%
Party ID
Democrat	94%	6%	<1%	1%
Republican	9%	86%	4%	1%
Independent	42%	48%	4%	6%
October 30, 2010 McClatchy-Marist Poll Colorado Likely Voters including early voters and those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate N= 615 MOE +/- 4%. Totals may not add to 100 due to rounding.

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More Republicans than Democrats Enthusiastic to Vote

Almost half of registered voters in Colorado — 48% — are very enthusiastic about voting on Tuesday.  Conservatives are more enthusiastic than liberals.  Republicans are slightly more so than Democrats. 

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Colorado:  Those Very Enthusiastic to Vote 2010
Question: Thinking about next week’s elections overall, would you say you are very enthusiastic, somewhat enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all about voting in the elections next week?
	October 30, 2010	October 4, 2010
CO Registered Voters	48%	44%
Party ID
Democrat	52%	42%
Republican	59%	54%
Independent	34%	35%
Tea Party Supporters	64%	67%
Enthusiasm of Candidates’ Supporters
Voters for Bennet	42%	40%
Voters for Buck	58%	60%
October 30, 2010 McClatchy-Marist Poll Colorado Registered Voters including early voters N= 822 MOE +/- 3.5%.  Totals may not add to 100 due to rounding.

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Key Findings:

• 40% of registered voters approve of the job President Barack Obama is doing in office.  This is unchanged from McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey.
• Registered voters in Colorado divide when it comes to the future of the nation’s economy.  46% say the worst of the country’s economic problems are yet to come, and the same proportion — 46% — believe the worst is behind us.  Voters who are pessimistic about the economy and believe it will get worse are more likely to vote Republican.  Those who are more optimistic and believe the worst is behind us are more likely to vote Democratic.
• A majority of registered voters — 51% — think President Obama inherited today’s economic conditions from the Bush years.  38% say the economy is a result of Obama’s own policies.
• Likely voters statewide are firmly committed to their choice of candidate.  82% say they strongly support their pick.  83% of likely voters who are behind Bennet strongly support him, an increase from 66% earlier this month.  78% of those who support Buck are strongly behind him.  73% felt this way in McClatchy-Marist’s previous poll.
• Neither Bennet nor Buck is viewed favorably by a majority of likely voters.  45% view Bennet favorably, and 44% think well of Buck.  Both Bennet and Buck have a negative rating of 48%.
• Among all registered voters in Colorado, Bennet takes 45% to Buck’s 44%.  In the previous McClatchy-Marist survey, the contest among the statewide electorate was 41% for Bennet and 40% for Buck.

About The McClatchy-Marist Poll’s Methodology:

Telephone numbers were selected based upon a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the state. The exchanges were selected to ensure that each region was represented in proportion to turnout in comparable elections. In an effort to increase coverage, this land-line sample was supplemented by respondents reached through random dialing of cell phone numbers. The land-line and cell phone samples were then combined.

Complete Marist Poll Methodology

Related McClatchy-Marist Poll Releases:

10/4: CO U.S. Senate Race: 8 Percentage Point Lead for Buck Among Likely Voters

10/30: Pennsylvania U.S. Senate: Leaning Republican

In the race for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania, Republican Pat Toomey leads Democrat Joe Sestak by 7 percentage points among likely voters including early voters and those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, according to this McClatchy-Marist Poll.

This data was collected from Tuesday, October 26, 2010 through Thursday, October 28, 2010, still five days from Election Day.

Click Here for Complete October 30, 2010 PA McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables

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Pennsylvania: U.S. Senate Likely Voters
Question: If next week’s election for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are: [If undecided: If you had to decide today, are you leaning more towards:]
	Sestak	Toomey	Other	Undecided
PA LV Oct. 30, 2010	45%	52%	1%	2%
PA LV Oct.  4, 2010	42%	51%	1%	6%
Party ID
Democrat	89%	9%	1%	1%
Republican	8%	91%	<1%	1%
Independent	40%	51%	3%	7%
October 30, 2010 McClatchy-Marist Poll Pennsylvania Likely Voters including early voters and those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate N= 461 MOE +/- 5%. Totals may not add to 100 due to rounding.

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The Enthusiasm Game

40% of registered voters in Pennsylvania are very enthusiastic about voting on Election Day.  Republicans, conservatives, and men are more enthusiastic about voting than Democrats, liberals, and women.  The enthusiasm gap hasn’t narrowed since McClatchy-Marist’s previous poll.

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Pennsylvania:  Those Very Enthusiastic to Vote 2010
Question: Thinking about next week’s elections overall, would you say you are very enthusiastic, somewhat enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all about voting in the elections next week?
	October 30, 2010	October 4, 2010
PA Registered Voters	40%	38%
Party ID
Democrat	36%	36%
Republican	58%	51%
Independent	23%	20%
Tea Party Supporters	57%	61%
Enthusiasm of Candidates’ Supporters
Voters for Sestak	32%	35%
Voters for Toomey	52%	55%
October 30, 2010 McClatchy-Marist Poll Pennsylvania Registered Voters including early voters N= 806 MOE +/- 3.5%.  Totals may not add to 100 due to rounding.

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Key Findings:

• In a state that Barack Obama carried by 11 percentage points, the president’s approval rating currently stands at 47% among registered voters and 43% among those likely to vote on Tuesday.
• Registered voters in Pennsylvania still divide about whether the worst of the nation’s economic problems are behind us or if the worst is still to come.  Voters who are pessimistic about the economy and believe it will get worse are more likely to vote Republican.  Those who are more optimistic and believe the worst is behind us are more likely to vote Democratic.
• 57% of registered voters think President Obama inherited today’s economic conditions from his predecessor.  32% say Obama’s policies are responsible for the state of the economy.
• 74% of voters who are likely to vote in Pennsylvania strongly support their choice of candidate.  77% who pull for Toomey and 71% who are behind Sestak firmly back their pick.
• 49% of likely voters have a favorable impression of Toomey while 35% do not.  45% of likely voters in Pennsylvania view Sestak favorably while 40% view him unfavorably.
• Among all registered voters in Pennsylvania, the race for U.S. Senate is Sestak 43% and Toomey 39%.  In the previous McClatchy-Marist survey, Toomey had 40% to Sestak’s 38% among the entire state’s electorate.

About The McClatchy-Marist Poll’s Methodology:

Telephone numbers were selected based upon a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the state. The exchanges were selected to ensure that each region was represented in proportion to turnout in comparable elections. In an effort to increase coverage, this land-line sample was supplemented by respondents reached through random dialing of cell phone numbers. The land-line and cell phone samples were then combined.

Complete Marist Poll Methodology

Related McClatchy-Marist Poll Releases:

10/4: PA U.S. Senate Race: Toomey Leads Sestak by 9 Percentage Points Among Likely Voters

10/30: Washington State U.S. Senate: Tossup

According to this McClatchy-Marist Poll, Democrat Patty Murray and Republican Dino Rossi are in a virtual dead heat in the race for U.S. Senate in Washington State.

Murray has 49% among likely voters including early voters and those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate to Rossi’s 48%.  This data was collected from Tuesday, October 26, 2010 through Thursday, October 28, 2010 with still five days to go until Election Day.

Click Here for Complete October 30, 2010 WA McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables

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Washington State: U.S. Senate Likely Voters
Question: If next week’s election for U.S. Senate in Washington State were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are: [If undecided: If you had to decide today, are you leaning more towards:]
	Murray	Rossi	Other	Undecided
WA LV Oct. 30, 2010	49%	48%	2%	1%
WA LV Oct. 20, 2010	48%	47%	<1%	5%
Party ID
Democrat	95%	5%	<1%	<1%
Republican	5%	95%	<1%	<1%
Independent	42%	51%	4%	3%
October 30, 2010 McClatchy-Marist Poll Washington State Likely Voters including early voters and those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate N= 638 MOE +/- 4%. Totals may not add to 100 due to rounding.

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More Republicans than Democrats Enthusiastic to Vote

A majority of registered voters are enthusiastic about voting on Tuesday.  Republicans and conservatives are more enthusiastic than Democrats and liberals about casting their ballot.  Although 56% of Rossi backers and 51% of Murray supporters are very enthusiastic, there has been a narrowing in the gap from McClatchy-Marist’s previous poll.  At that time, 58% of voters for Rossi and 43% of Murray backers expressed a high level of enthusiasm.

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Washington:  Those Very Enthusiastic to Vote 2010
Question: Thinking about next week’s elections overall, would you say you are very enthusiastic, somewhat enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all about voting in the elections next week?
	October 30, 2010	October 20, 2010
WA Registered Voters	51%	49%
Party ID
Democrat	52%	48%
Republican	62%	59%
Independent	44%	44%
Tea Party Supporters	64%	72%
Enthusiasm of Candidates’ Supporters
Voters for Murray	51%	43%
Voters for Rossi	56%	58%
October 30, 2010 McClatchy-Marist Poll Washington State Registered Voters including early voters N= 838 MOE +/- 3.5%.  Totals may not add to 100 due to rounding.

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Key Findings:

• 48% of registered voters approve of the job President Barack Obama is doing in office.  Obama’s approval rating has changed little since McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey.  Obama carried Washington State by 17 percentage points two years ago.
• Nearly half of registered voters in Washington State — 49% — think we’ve turned the corner and the nation’s economic problems are behind us.  41% say the worst of the nation’s economic problems are yet to come.  In McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey, voters divided with 44% saying the worst was behind us and the same proportion — 44% — reporting the worst is still ahead.  Voters who are pessimistic about the economy and believe it will get worse are more likely to vote Republican.  Those who are more optimistic and believe the worst is behind us are more likely to vote Democratic.
• 61% of registered voters think President Obama inherited today’s economic conditions from the Bush years.  30% say the economy is a result of Obama’s policies.
• Nearly nine in ten likely voters strongly support their choice of candidate.  87% of Murray supporters and 85% of Rossi supporters firmly back their pick.  Voters’ intensity of support is up from McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey.
• Although 49% of likely voters have a favorable impression of Murray and 46% perceive Rossi well, both have high negatives.  44% of likely voters have a poor impression of Murray while 46% assess Rossi unfavorably.
• Among all registered voters in Washington State, Murray takes 47% to Rossi’s 44%.  In mid-October, Murray received 47% to Rossi’s 42%.

About The McClatchy-Marist Poll’s Methodology:

Telephone numbers were selected based upon a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the state. The exchanges were selected to ensure that each region was represented in proportion to turnout in comparable elections. In an effort to increase coverage, this land-line sample was supplemented by respondents reached through random dialing of cell phone numbers. The land-line and cell phone samples were then combined.

Complete Marist Poll Methodology

Related McClatchy-Marist Poll Releases:

10/20: WA U.S. Senate Race: Murray and Rossi in Virtual Dead Heat

10/30: Wisconsin U.S. Senate: Leaning Republican

Republican Ron Johnson leads incumbent Democrat Russ Feingold in the race for U.S. Senate in Wisconsin by 7 percentage points among likely voters including early voters and those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, according to this McClatchy-Marist Poll.

This data was collected from Tuesday, October 26, 2010 through Thursday, October 28, 2010, five days from Election Day.

Click Here for Complete October 30, 2010 WI McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables

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Wisconsin: U.S. Senate Likely Voters
Question: If next week’s election for U.S. Senate in Wisconsin were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are: [If undecided: If you had to decide today, are you leaning more towards:]
	Feingold	Johnson	Other	Undecided
WI LV Oct. 30, 2010	45%	52%	1%	2%
WI LV Oct. 4, 2010	45%	52%	<1%	3%
Party ID
Democrat	91%	5%	<1%	3%
Republican	4%	95%	1%	<1%
Independent	41%	57%	<1%	2%
October 30, 2010 McClatchy-Marist Poll Wisconsin Likely Voters including early voters and those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate N= 491 MOE +/- 4.5%. Totals may not add to 100 due to rounding.

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Enthusiasm: The More Things Change, the More Things Stay the Same

Although there’s no change in the matchup between Feingold and Johnson and voters’ enthusiasm overall is similar to McClatchy-Marist’s previous poll, the enthusiasm factor is different among key groups.  Democrats, liberals, women, and Feingold supporters express greater enthusiasm about voting on Tuesday when compared with the earlier poll.  While Johnson’s supporters remain more enthusiastic than Feingold’s backers, the gap between the two candidates has narrowed.

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Wisconsin:  Those Very Enthusiastic to Vote 2010
Question: Thinking about next week’s elections overall, would you say you are very enthusiastic, somewhat enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all about voting in the elections next week?
	October 30, 2010	October 4, 2010
WI Registered Voters	48%	44%
Party ID
Democrat	54%	38%
Republican	56%	53%
Independent	42%	44%
Tea Party Supporters	57%	69%
Enthusiasm of Candidates’ Supporters
Voters for Feingold	48%	39%
Voters for Johnson	56%	58%
October 30, 2010 McClatchy-Marist Poll Wisconsin Registered Voters including early voters N= 811 MOE +/- 3.5%.  Totals may not add to 100 due to rounding.

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Key Findings:

• In the 2008 presidential election, Barack Obama carried Wisconsin by 13 percentage points.  Today, his approval rating among registered voters is 47%.
• When thinking about the U.S. economy, 51% of registered voters in Wisconsin say the worst is behind us. 41% believe the worst is yet to come.  There has been little change on this question since McClatchy-Marist’s previous poll in the state.  Voters who are pessimistic about the economy and believe it will get worse are more likely to vote Republican.  Those who are more optimistic and believe the worst is behind us are more likely to vote Democratic.
• 53% of registered voters think President Obama inherited today’s economic conditions from the previous administration.  31% say the economy is a result of Obama’s own policies.
• There has been a 7 percentage point increase in the proportion of likely voters overall who strongly support their choice of candidate.  85% currently do so.  Although he trails in the contest overall, 88% of Feingold supporters, compared with 82% of Johnson supporters, firmly back their pick.
• Although Johnson and Feingold have a similar rating among likely voters, Feingold’s unfavorable rating is higher.  51% currently perceive Johnson favorably while 38% do not.  49% view Feingold positively.  46% do not.
• Among all registered voters in Wisconsin, Johnson and Feingold are neck and neck.  Johnson has 44% to Feingold’s 42%.

About The McClatchy-Marist Poll’s Methodology:

Telephone numbers were selected based upon a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the state. The exchanges were selected to ensure that each region was represented in proportion to turnout in comparable elections.  In an effort to increase coverage, this land-line sample was supplemented by respondents reached through random dialing of cell phone numbers. The land-line and cell phone samples were then combined.

Complete Marist Poll Methodology

Related McClatchy-Marist Poll Releases:

10/04: WI U.S. Senate Race: Feingold and Johnson in Virtual Dead Heat

10/29: McClatchy-Marist Poll

Where do the races for U.S. Senate in Colorado, Pennsylvania, Washington State, and Wisconsin stand?  Find out in the latest McClatchy-Marist Poll.

To read the full McClatchy article, click here.

Complete Tables for McClatchy-Marist Poll of Colorado

Complete Tables for McClatchy-Marist Poll of Pennsylvania

Complete Tables for McClatchy-Marist Poll of Washington State

Complete Tables for McClatchy-Marist Poll of Wisconsin

10/28: Turnout Key for Midterm Elections

While Democrats have the edge among registered voters nationwide heading into next week’s midterm elections for Congress, Republicans have the advantage among those who are most likely to vote.

Click Here for Complete October 28, 2010 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables

According to this McClatchy-Marist Poll, 47% of registered voters nationwide report they are more likely to vote for a Democrat in their district while 41% say they are more likely to support a Republican.  Six percent do not plan to vote for either party’s candidate, and 6% are undecided.

When looking at likely voters nationally, neither party has the competitive edge.  Among this group of voters, 46% say they are more likely to vote for a Democrat while 46% report they are more likely to support a Republican candidate.  Four percent will not vote for either party’s candidate, and the same proportion — 4% — are undecided.

However, Republicans gain the advantage among voters who are the most likely to go to the polls on Election Day.  Here, 49% report they are more likely to vote for a Republican candidate while 43% say they are more likely to support a Democrat.  Three percent believe they will not vote for either party’s candidate, and 4% are undecided.

“With numbers like these, it’s no wonder both parties are putting the pedal to the floor to get their supporters out,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “What location is to real estate, turnout is to this year’s political landscape.”

Table: Generic Congressional Ballot

Democrats Narrow Enthusiasm Gap

Four in ten registered voters nationally — 40% — report they are very enthusiastic about voting in next Tuesday’s elections.  In McClatchy-Marist’s October 8th survey, 36% reported a similar level of enthusiasm.

Republican voters continue to be more energized than Democrats about casting their ballot on Election Day, but Democrats have narrowed the enthusiasm divide.  Currently, 49% of Republicans compared with 35% of Democrats express a high level enthusiasm, a 14 percentage point difference.  In McClatchy-Marist’s previous poll, that difference stood at 23 percentage points.  At that time, a majority of Republicans — 51% — said they were very enthusiastic about voting on Election Day compared with 28% of Democrats.  There has also been a bump in the proportion of independent voters who are very enthusiastic.  38% feel this way now compared with 32% a few weeks ago.

Age and gender gaps remain on this question.  The youngest members of the electorate — those 18 to 29 — are underwhelmed by the upcoming elections.  Only 13% report they are very enthusiastic about voting compared with 11% earlier this month.  The eldest members of the electorate — those 60 or older — outpace their youngest counterparts on enthusiasm by nearly four-to-one.  Half of those over 60 — 50% — now report a high level of enthusiasm.  48% had a similar degree of enthusiasm in McClatchy-Marist’s early October survey.

Looking at gender, 44% of male voters and 37% of female voters say they are very excited about voting on Election Day.  39% and 32%, respectively, reported the same earlier this month.

Table: Enthusiasm to Vote

Obama Approval Rating Inches Upward

President Barack Obama has a slight increase in his job approval rating.  48% of registered voters nationally say they approve of his job performance, 43% disapprove, and 9% are unsure.  In a McClatchy-Marist survey earlier this month, 43% approved, half disapproved, and 7% were unsure.

Democrats and independents are responsible for this uptick in the president’s rating.  79% of Democrats currently say they approve of the president’s job performance compared with 74% earlier this month.  Nearly half of independents — 48% — share this positive opinion of Mr. Obama’s performance.  This is a 13 percentage point increase since McClatchy-Marist’s last national survey when 35% held this view.  Among Republican voters, 14% approve of the president’s job performance while 12% did so earlier in October.

One wrinkle for Obama, though, is that half of voters still say he has fallen below their expectations as president.  In McClatchy-Marist’s September 22nd survey, 54% said the same.

Table: Obama Approval Rating
Table: Obama Approval Rating Over Time

Table: Obama Meeting Expectations
Table: Obama Meeting Expectations Over Time

Economic Conditions Still Viewed as Inherited

Six in ten registered voters — 60% — believe President Obama mostly inherited today’s economic conditions from the Bush years.  These perceptions are bolstered by 85% of Democrats and 61% of independents who share this view.  30% of registered voters report the nation’s economic conditions are a result of the president’s own policies, including 59% of Republicans.

Table: Economic Conditions Inherited
Table: Economic Conditions Inherited Over Time

Americans Divide Over Future of the U.S. Economy

When thinking about the future of the U.S. economy, registered voters divide.  47% are more optimistic and say the worst is behind us, 45% are more pessimistic and think the economy will get worse, and 8% are unsure.  A few weeks ago, 49% said there is bad economic news on the horizon, 46% said better days are ahead, and 5% were unsure.

Among likely voters nationally, 48% report the worst is behind us, 44% say the worst is yet to come, and 9% are unsure.

Looking at Americans overall, when thinking about the future of the U.S. economy, 47% believe the worst is yet to come while 45% say the worst is behind us.  8% are unsure.  In McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey, half — 50% — thought the worst was yet to come, 46% said it was behind us, and 4% were unsure.

Table: U.S. Economy — Will It Get Worse?

Obama Viewed Favorably by Majority

A majority of registered voters — 54% — have a favorable impression of President Barack Obama while 41% have an unfavorable one.  5% are unsure.  In McClatchy-Marist’s early October survey, half — 50% — thought highly of the president, 47% did not, and 3% were unsure.

Table: Obama Favorability
Table: Obama Favorability Over Time

Nearly Half Plan to Support Incumbent

46% of registered voters report they will support their current elected congressperson on Election Day while 41% believe they will vote for someone else.  13% are undecided.  In McClatchy-Marist’s September 22nd survey, 48% said they would support the incumbent, 43% wanted someone else, and 9% were undecided.

A majority of Republicans — 54% — say they want someone new in office while 38% say they want to stick with their current elected official.  Just 8% are undecided.  In contrast, a majority of Democrats — 54% — report they plan to support their incumbent.  26% think they will vote for someone else, and 20% are undecided.  Independent voters divide with 46% saying they want their incumbent to remain and 44% reporting they want someone else to be elected.  10% are undecided.

Table: U.S. Congress — Incumbent or Other?
Table: U.S. Congress — Incumbent or Other? (Over Time)

Majority of Americans View Nation as On the Wrong Path

52% of U.S. residents think the nation is moving in the wrong direction while 38% believe it is moving along the right path.  10% are unsure.  In McClatchy-Marist’s September 22nd survey, 56% thought the country needed a new compass, 41% said the nation was on track, and 3% were unsure.

Table: Right or Wrong Direction of the Country

Marist Poll Methodology

10/28: The Ramifications of the Midterm Elections

Will the GOP retake the House? Will the Senate be gridlocked? And, what are the lasting effects of Tuesday’s midterm elections? The Marist Poll’s John Sparks speaks with Marist Poll Analyst and syndicated political columnist Carl Leubsdorf who writes a weekly column for The Dallas Morning News.

Listen to the interview or read the transcript below.

John Sparks
Carl, we’re right on top of the midterm elections. I read an estimate that said in the House, about 168 seats are solidly Republican, 155 solidly Democrat, about 112 seats in play.  Do you think that the Republicans have a chance to retake the House?

Listen to Part 1 of the Interview:

Carl Leubsdorf
Oh, I think most people think that the Republicans are going to retake the House, and the only real question is by how much they take it.  All signs are, and I’ve been just looking at a lot of polls of House Democratic incumbents, and there’s so many districts in which the Democratic incumbents are polling in the low 40’s, some that are ahead by a couple of points, some that are behind by a couple of points.  An an incumbent who’s in his low 40’s at this time, two weeks out from the election, is in very deep trouble, and undecided vote is unlikely to go with the incumbent. So if the national polling on intent and Congressional elections is anywhere close to correct and you’re seeing those have anywhere from a five to a 10-point Republican lead, the Republicans are going to gain between 50 and 60 seats, and they need to get 39 to take the House.

John Sparks
You know, we’ve both seen polls that indicate that voters are angry. They say, “Throw the bums out regardless of the party.”  They want change which is kind of ironic since President Obama campaigned on change just two short years ago. But, do you really think that incumbents are in trouble?

Carl Leubsdorf
Oh yeah, I think they are, but they’re mostly Democratic incumbents who are in trouble.  One reason for that is there are many more Democrats who represent swing districts. As a result of the 2006 and the 2008 elections, the Republican representation in the House was reduced substantially, and most of those districts are pretty safe Republican districts, but, for example, you have 48 or 49 Democrats who represent House districts that John McCain carried in the presidential election. That kind of a district can go either way and has in different years, so the Democrats have to defend an awful lot plus, they’ve been running the government for the last two years, so they’re the — any anti-incumbent wave is going to strike them and inordinately high.

John Sparks
Do you think that we could wake up on November 3rd to see a repeat of say, what we saw in 1994 with the Contract with America when the Republicans won in droves?

Carl Leubsdorf
Well, the Republican… The difference between this and 1994 is that in 1994 most of us thought that the Republicans would win the Senate, which they did, and we had that pretty much pegged because there were so many open Democratic seats in the Senate. But in the House, most of us were quite surprised by the Republican landslide in the House.  It broke very late.  A lot of Democrats were quite unprepared for what happened. There’s no surprise this time.  For the last year or more than a year, some analysts have been saying that the Democratic hold on the House is in trouble, that many Democratic freshmen and sophomores in districts that are not particularly Democratic would have a tough time. So, we won’t be surprised at all. I mean, we’ll be surprised by two things.  We’ll be surprised if the Democrats keep the House, and we’ll surprised — be surprised if the Republicans win a majority, win 70 or 80 Democratic seats as opposed to more like 50.

John Sparks
Let’s take a look over at the Senate side of things. What do you think is going to happen?

Listen to Part 2:

Carl Leubsdorf
Well, that’s interesting because it looks at this point like the Democrats have a pretty good shot of holding the Senate.  Now some analysts have pointed out that there has been no election in modern time where the House has switched parties where the Senate has not switched parties, and yet it looks at this point like the Republicans are likely to fall a seat or two short in the Senate.  Not only that, but a couple of races where the Republicans have had fairly comfortable leads, the polling shows they’ve tightened up a lot.  For example, in Pennsylvania where Arlen Specter, the incumbent, was beaten in the Democratic primary by Joe Sestak, a congressman.  Ever since then, the polls have showed that Pat Toomey, the conservative Republican challenger, has been ahead of Sestak by anywhere from 7 to 10 points.  In the last two or three days, we’ve had a couple of polls showing Sestak pulling ahead by 3 points.  In the primary, he came on very late, and it’s always possible that that will happen here again, and what makes the polls somewhat credible is they continue to show a comfortable Republican lead in the governor’s race there. So we’ve seen that there.  We even saw a poll in Wisconsin where, I think, most many Democrats gave Senator Russ Feingold up for as a loser this year, that someone came out with a poll this week that showed him a couple of points ahead. So, we’ve got half a dozen at least very close Senate races, and there is some history that in a wave election where there’s a big swing to one party, all of those close races go one direction, and that’s certainly possible that at the end all these close Senate races will go Republican along with the House, and the Republicans will win the Senate. One other thing about the Senate, whichever party wins the numerical majority in the Senate, whether it’s 50/51/52 seats, it’s going to be a very small majority, and given the fact that the Senate has decided you need 60 votes to do almost anything, the Senate is certainly headed for gridlock city.

John Sparks
Carl, you know we’ve been talking about the immediate election, but there are some down ballot races, state results that are going to have an impact on the makeup of the Congress, and I talk about redistricting.

Listen to Part 3:

Carl Leubsdorf
I think there is a real danger for the Democrats of what I call a double whammy in this election that not only will they lose the House and possibly the Senate, but certainly a lot of their Senate seats, but that what’s happened in some of those down ballot races, especially legislative and gubernatorial races, will set the Democrats up for another defeat in two years, and let me explain what I mean.

As you know, every 10 years, legislative and congressional seats are –  the boundaries are redrawn according to population changes. Some states gain Congressional seats, some lose Congressional seats, and in other cases, the population is shifted within the state, so the boundaries get redrawn.  And, it looks like that because this is going to be such a Republican election, and that’s going to carry through into state legislative races, that the Republicans will have a real advantage in redrawing the district lines. For example, in Texas, which will probably gain four seats, and Florida, which will be probably gain two seats, the Republicans will probably control the legislature in both.  Probably win the governorship in Texas. Florida is closer. They might not win there. But a couple of Northern states like Michigan and Ohio, which are losing seats in Congress, the Republicans are doing well there, too.  So, if they redraw the lines in these states to favor the Republicans, it could make it that much harder for the Democrats to rebound in two years, even if the economy improves and President Obama gets re-elected. There’s another factor in this.  The Senate seats, of course, come up every six years, and the Senate seats that are going to be up for election in 2012 are the ones that were elected in 2006.  Well, 2006 was a big Democratic year so as a result of the 33 Senate seats up next time, only 10 are Republican seats, and most of them are pretty safe.  So this is why Republican leaders are talking about, even if they don’t win the Senate this time, they think they can win it next time.  And, if it’ll rebound, then the House would be very difficult for the Democrats.  So, they may be in the minority for more than two years here.

John Sparks
You know, the president and first lady are traveling now stumping on behalf of Democratic candidates.  Former President Clinton has been out on the campaign trail too I understand.  What will it be like for the president and the — his administration with Republican control of the Congress?  What can we look for in the way of running the government for the next two years?

Listen to Part 4:

Carl Leubsdorf
Of course, the president will continue to run the government in terms of the executive branch, and it’s going to be very difficult for the Republicans, even if they win the House and even if they get a small majority in the Senate to be able to follow through on some of their promises to basically stop what Obama has done and, for example, repeal and replace major parts of the health reform bill.  The president will still have the veto.  He certainly will be using it, and that requires a two-thirds vote in either — in both houses to override him, and that will be very difficult. For example, if the Republicans try to deny funding to carry out the health bill when the appropriation bill is up for the Department of Health and Human Services, the result of that will be that it’ll be very hard to pass an appropriations bill for those departments. Even if they get it through both houses, again, the President will be in a position to block it, so I think there’s going to be a lot of — they’re going to be at each other’s throats a lot, and unless they can find some areas to do some cooperating, you’re not going to see much of that. Now, the other thing that will happen with a Republican Congress and especially Republican House is, we’ve seen this before, that when the other branch has the control of the Congress, they have control of the committees, and they can conduct investigations. And Darrell Issa of California, Republican congressman who’s due to the head the committee that the government — used to call it Government Operations Committee, has already said that he’s going to hire a lot of FBI agents, and he’s going to conduct a whole series of investigations of the way the Obama administration has done its business. So, the administration, if that happens, can expect to have its top officials spending a lot of time testifying on Capitol Hill as the Republicans try to poke holes in its record in advance of the presidential election.  So, the administration will have to do the best it can with this. It’s not a unique situation obviously. President Clinton faced it after the 1994 election. He really stood tough on budget issues, but — and in the end forced a confrontation which rebounded in his favor.  So, I think we’re in for a lot of acrimony and not much cooperation.

John Sparks
When I think back about a Democratic president losing popularity, I think back to Jimmy Carter and the scenario that we were in prior to the election of 1980 where we had a Democratic president who was slipping, who was hurt.  He was stymied by the Iran hostage crisis, but at that time the Republicans had Ronald Reagan who came in waiting in the wings and took the election of 1980.  When I think about our present times, I see Obama losing the confidence of the American people, but I see the Republican Party this time in much of a disarray. Would you agree?

Listen to Part 5:

Carl Leubsdorf
Well, I think two things to that.  First is for all the talk about how badly Obama’s doing and all of his problems, his job approval isn’t that bad. There was a new poll today, I think he was — his job approval was 47%. It’s never gone below the low 40’s, and it sort of stabilized in the mid to upper 40’s, so it’s not like he’s in the high 20’s, which is where former President Bush ended up, and Carter ended up pretty low too at the end.  So that’s one thing. He’s not as unpopular as people think, and the electorate and presidential elections is very different from Congressional elections.  Young people vote more. Minorities vote more, and things that help the — those help the Democrats.

As for the disarray in the Republican Party, the Tea Party wing of the Republican Party, and I mean that’s really what it is, it’s the right side of the Republican Party, is really feeling its oats after having won a bunch of primary fights with establishment Republicans.  Now, ironically some of those primary fights may be the reason that the Republicans don’t win the Senate, that there are a couple of Senate seats that they probably would’ve won with the establishment candidates and might not win with the Tea Party candidates.  But in any case, it’s clear that the Tea Party group has a lot of support in the Republican rank and file, and you can see a really bitter fight developing for the Republican presidential nomination in which one or another or several candidates backed by various Tea Party groups and bowing to really shake up the Republican Party take on the more established wing.  For example, if former Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska runs against — as a Tea Party candidate against Mitt Romney, the former Governor of Massachusetts, who’s more of the establishment type, you can see a really divisive primary fight and possibly the nomination of someone who’s not electable. I mean, we’ve seen that before. The Republicans nominated Barry Goldwater in 1964.  He was not electable and lost to President Johnson. The Democrats nominated George McGovern in 1972. He was not electable.  In both cases, they would more acted the swing of the party forced the nomination on the establishment wing, and they took a licking in the election.  So, so much is going to depend on the economy and how things go in the next couple of years.  If unemployment is still near 10% in the spring of 2012, President Obama is going to be in trouble no matter who the opponent is, but if unemployment drops to say the 8% level, which these days would look pretty good, and put people in much more optimistic about the trend, it’s going to be much harder for the Republicans.  Elected presidents tend to get re-elected in this country.  Jimmy Carter did not, and he was — that was an unusual situation.  He had regained the White House for his party in  the 1976 election and lost four years later. The other incumbents who’ve been beaten were President Bush who was beaten in 1992, but that was the third Republican term after the two Reagan terms, and same thing is true many years ago President Hoover in 1932.  So someone who brought his party back in to then lose in four years, that would be unusual, but of course, nothing’s impossible in politics.

John Sparks
Carl, the mention of acrimony a moment ago certainly resonated with me. I am very concerned about that. It seems like to me that the bitterness has been responsible for the lack of productivity on the Hilltop, and now we see polls where voters are angry…throw the bums out… what in the world would it take to get folks on both sides of the aisle to work together, to have logrolling, to do deals, to live to fight another day?

Listen to Part 6:

Carl Leubsdorf
Well, you know logrolling has been made a dirty word, too. It’s one of the problems.  We used to say, and that it would be good if the parties, if the all liberals were on one side and all the conservatives were on the other side.  I’ve just been reading a book about the 1938 Congressional election where President Roosevelt tried to defeat several conservative senators in the Democratic Party so that the Democratic Party would more reflect his liberal progressive point of view.  And what’s happened is that with one party — instead of two parties that are coalitions where there’s sort of a natural effort in the middle to work together, we have one on one side and one on the other, and it’s not only personal acrimony, they — there’re two things. They act… They really disagree with each other on the approaches. You see that in this debate about taxes where the Democrats want to increase the taxes on those over a certain income level, and the Republicans don’t. You see it on the role of the government in the stimulus bill that has become such a controversial issue. That was one of the first things that passed after President Obama came in. By all independent analyses, the stimulus bill really saved the economy from going off the cliff even worse than it was. It saved about 3 million jobs, and it got some things going that really were helpful to the economy. But, all you hear from the opponents of Obama and most of the Republicans saying that they wasted $800 billion. Well, no… independent analysts don’t think it was wasted.  The bank bailout, the bank bailouts have had a terrible press, but the fact is that they stabilized the banking system.  So, it seems like as soon as one side gets in, the other side is determined to prove what a bunch of failures there are.  You would’ve thought with a big economic crisis two years ago and Obama having won by a fairly considerable majority, that there was a basis for the parties cooperating more, but that didn’t happen, and I’m not sure now what it would take to have that happen.

John Sparks
Anything you’d like to add before we call it a day?

Listen to Part 7:

Carl Leubsdorf
No, I mean I think one thing that’ll happen of course is there always are some surprises on Election Day.  Some people we thought we were going to lose are going to win. Some people who were going to win going to lose.  But, I think everyone in the political world would be shocked if, for example, the Democrats retained control of the House of Representatives, or something like that happened or if some of the candidates on the Republican side, like you know, some of the more conservative candidates if they won, but some of them probably are going to win, and it’s going to be interesting to see how the Republicans deal with that. But, there will be some surprises. Something will happen that we didn’t expect.  But, with — modern polling has gotten very sophisticated. There’s an awful lot of it being done. There is a lot of comparing of apples and oranges in different polls, but the polls this time are so consistent and so uniform both on the district and state level and on national level, that it’s hard to see the major result of the election being a surprise.

10/28: Too Little Too Late?

The latest national poll numbers from McClatchy-Marist point to some late movement for Team Obama and the Democrats.  But, if you’re Speaker Pelosi, you’re still likely to lose your day job.

The president’s approval rating is up to 48% from 43% earlier this month.  This is nothing exactly to write home about, but an improvement nonetheless.    The so-called “enthusiasm gap” which has been the center point of much political discussion this election cycle has also narrowed.  Among those who say they are “very enthusiastic” about voting next Tuesday, the GOP advantage over the Democrats has decreased from 23 percentage points to 14 percentage points.

On the economic front, there has been a five percentage point swing in the number of voters who think the economic glass is half full and that we’ve turned the economic corner.  Another good sign for the Democrats.

But, before the White House breaks out the champagne, the pre-election poll numbers for the Democrats still look pretty bleak.  Most telling is the question on the generic vote for Congress.  Here, the Democratic advantage of 6 percentage points among the entire potential electorate melts away as consideration is first given to likely voters and, than dramatically, to those who are most likely to vote.  It is with this group of definite voters that the GOP enjoys a 6 percentage point lead over the Democrats.

Then, there’s the enthusiasm question.  The GOP continues, despite the narrowing gap, to have a double digit advantage over the Democrats.  More than half of those voters who identify as politically conservative are “very enthusiastic” about voting next Tuesday compared with only about one in three political liberals.  And, 44% of those most likely to vote self-identify as conservative.  Only 20% sees themselves as liberal.   And, perhaps, most telling is the weakest group on the enthusiasm question is those under 30 years old.  What a difference two years has made.

The wrong direction numbers, also a sign that the party in power has some explaining to do, dwarfs the right direction numbers by 52% to 38%.

So, we head into the final few days of campaign 2010.  But, this time it’s the elephant herd that’s fired up and ready to go.

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