9/30: Cuomo Leads Paladino 53% to 38% Among Likely NYS Voters

Then, there were two.  Rick Lazio announced earlier this week that he was dropping out of the New York State gubernatorial race.  How does the contest stack up when Democrat Andrew Cuomo and Republican Carl Paladino go head-to-head?

Click Here for Complete September 30, 2010 Poll Release and Tables

Cuomo has a 15 percentage point lead over Paladino.  53% of likely voters in New York say they will support Cuomo while 38% report they will back Paladino.  One percent backs someone else, and 8% are undecided.  When Marist asked this question last week, prior to Lazio’s withdrawal from the race, 52% of likely voters backed Cuomo, 33% tossed their support behind Paladino, and 9% thought they would cast their ballot for Lazio.  6% were undecided.

“Cuomo continues to hold a double-digit lead, but the numbers have shifted somewhat following Lazio’s withdrawal from the race,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Without Lazio on the Conservative Party line, Paladino is more competitive in the New York City suburbs and among non-enrolled voters.”

Not surprisingly, 79% of likely Democratic voters believe they will cast their ballot for Cuomo.  However, a notable proportion of likely Republican voters — 27% — also report they will support him.  43% of non-enrolled voters plan to cast their ballot for Cuomo.  While the support Cuomo receives from likely Democratic voters is relatively unchanged since Marist’s previous survey, there has been a slight bump in the proportion of likely Republican voters from whom Cuomo receives support.  Last week, 81% of likely Democratic voters reported they will vote for Cuomo while 19% of likely Republican voters said the same.  44% of likely voters not enrolled in any party backed Cuomo at that time.

67% of likely Republican voters plan to back Paladino compared with 14% of likely Democratic voters.  45% of non-enrolled voters who are likely to vote on Election Day toss their support behind Paladino an increase from Marist’s previous survey.  In last week’s Marist Poll, Paladino garnered the support of 63% of likely Republican voters, 11% of likely Democratic voters, and 33% of likely voters not enrolled in any party.

Paladino is the candidate of choice for 77% of likely voters who support the Tea Party.  16% back Cuomo.  Two percent say they are supporting someone else, and 4% are undecided.  In Marist’s previous survey, 69% said they supported Paladino, and 13% were pulling for Cuomo.  Lazio, who was still in the race at that time, received 14%.  4% were undecided.

Cuomo’s support remains strongest in New York City.  70% of likely voters in this region say they will cast their ballot for Cuomo while 18% report they will vote for Paladino.  10% are undecided.  Cuomo’s lead in the city has changed little since last week.  At that time, 65% of likely city voters said they backed him while 23% trumpeted Paladino.  Then-candidate Lazio garnered 6%.  An additional 6% were undecided.

With Lazio’s departure from the race, the New York City suburbs become more competitive.  49% of likely voters in the suburbs toss their support behind Cuomo while 43% believe they will vote for Paladino.  7% are undecided.  Last week, a majority of likely voters in the suburbs — 52% — said they would support Cuomo while Paladino netted 30%.  Before his withdrawal, Lazio took 16% of the likely suburban vote.  3% were undecided.

Cuomo and Paladino are neck and neck upstate.  Cuomo receives 46% of likely upstate New York voters while Paladino receives 47%.  7% are undecided.  In Marist’s previous statewide poll, Cuomo and Paladino each received 43%.  Then-candidate Lazio garnered 7%.  An additional 7% were undecided.

Among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, Cuomo has a 16 percentage point lead.  56% report they will vote for Democrat Cuomo while 40% say they will vote for Republican Paladino.  4% are still undecided.  Last week, 53% believed they would vote for Cuomo while 34% backed Paladino.  Lazio took 10%, and 3% were undecided.

Looking at the overall electorate, 56% of registered voters plan to cast their ballot for Cuomo while 34% say the same about Paladino.  10% are undecided.  In Marist’s previous survey, 55% of registered voters statewide said they would back Cuomo while 29% said they would pick Paladino.  Lazio received the support of 10%, and just 6% were undecided.

Table: NY Gubernatorial Tossup (Likely Voters)
Table: NY Gubernatorial Tossup (Likely Voters Including Leaners)
Table: NY Gubernatorial Tossup (Registered Voters)

Candidates Receive Firm Backing from Majority of Likely Voters

63% of likely voters strongly support their choice of candidate while 28% say they somewhat support him.  8% believe they might vote differently on Election Day.  One percent is unsure.  In Marist’s previous survey,  nearly six in ten — 59% — likely voters reported firmly supporting their candidate, 28% said they somewhat backed him, and 12% thought they might vote differently.  One percent were unsure.

67% of likely voters who are Cuomo backers say they are firmly in his camp.  An additional 28% are somewhat behind him, and 5% might vote differently on Election Day.  In Marist’s previous survey, 64% of Cuomo’s backers who are likely to vote strongly supported him, 25% were somewhat with him, and 10% thought they might waver in their support.

Nearly six in ten likely voters who support Paladino — 59% — strongly pledge their allegiance to their candidate.  29% somewhat support him while 11% could change their minds and vote for someone else.  In Marist’s previous survey, 61% firmly backed Paladino, 32% somewhat supported him, and 7% said they might cast their ballot differently.

Table: Candidates’ Strength of Support (Likely Voters)
Table: Candidates’ Strength of Support (Registered Voters)

For or Against Candidate of Choice?

Nearly six in ten likely voters — 58% — report they are voting for their candidate because of him while 38% say they have chosen their candidate because they are against his opponent.  4% are unsure.  In Marist’s previous survey, prior to Rick Lazio’s withdrawal from the race, 66% said they were for their chosen candidate while 32% reported they were against his opponents.  2% were unsure.

Almost seven in ten likely voters — 68% — who support Cuomo plan to do so because they are for him.  29%, though, are supporting him because they are against Paladino.  3% are unsure.  Last week, 72% of likely voters who support Cuomo were behind him because they are for their candidate while 26% were supporting him because they were against Paladino and Lazio.

When compared with Cuomo supporters who mostly back their candidate because they are for him, fewer likely voters who are behind Paladino share that reasoning.  45% of Paladino backers plan to cast their ballot for candidate Paladino while 51% plan to vote for Paladino because they are against Cuomo.  4% are unsure.  In Marist’s previous survey, 58% were voting for Paladino while 39% supported him because they didn’t want Cuomo or Lazio to win. 3% were unsure.

Table: Voting for Candidate or Against Opponents? (Likely Voters)
Table: Voting for Candidate or Against Opponents? (Registered Voters)

More Than One-third Express High Level of Enthusiasm for November’s Elections

When thinking about November’s elections, 35% of registered voters say they are very enthusiastic about casting their ballot.  Last week, a similar proportion — 38% — reported a high level of enthusiasm.

About one-third of the national electorate — 33% — says they are very enthusiastic.

The state’s GOP remains more enthusiastic than Democrats in New York although the gap has narrowed.  44% of registered Republican voters are very enthusiastic while 33% of Democratic voters profess the same sentiment.  27% of non-enrolled voters are very enthusiastic about voting in this November’s elections.

In Marist’s previous survey, a majority of registered Republican voters — 51% — were very enthusiastic.  34% of Democratic voters and 31% of non-enrolled voters shared this degree of enthusiasm.

Table: Enthusiasm to Vote

Cuomo Favorable Among Six in Ten Voters

Among registered voters statewide, 60% have a favorable impression of Andrew Cuomo while 31% have an unfavorable view of him.  9% are unsure.

77% of registered Democrats view Cuomo favorably.  However, a notable proportion of Republican voters — 46% — have a positive impression of Cuomo.  A majority of non-enrolled voters — 55% — also share this impression.

Table: Cuomo Favorability

Nearly Half View Paladino Unfavorably

48% of registered voters say they have an unfavorable impression of Carl Paladino while 34% view him favorably.  18% are unsure.

While 57% of registered Republicans perceive Carl Paladino positively, nearly three in ten — 29% — do not hold him in high esteem.  14% are unsure.  44% of non-enrolled voters have a negative impression of the Republican candidate for governor while 33% have a positive image of him.  23% of non-enrolled voters are unsure.  67% of Democrats have an unfavorable impression of Paladino, and 19% have a favorable one.  14% of Democrats are unsure.

“Neither Cuomo nor Paladino is particularly shy,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “I suspect we’ll be hearing a great deal more from and about the candidates as the campaign heats up.”

Table: Paladino Favorability

“Turn This State Around,” Say 79% of Voters

Most registered voters statewide — 79%– believe New York State is moving in the wrong direction while just 16% think it is on the right path.  5% are unsure.

Last week, 73% reported the state needed to be re-directed while 24% thought it was moving in the right direction.  3% were unsure.

Table: NYS Direction
Table: NYS Direction Over Time

Cuomo Approval Rating at 52%

A majority of registered voters in New York State — 52% — approve of the job Attorney General Andrew Cuomo is doing in office.  This includes 12% who say he is doing an excellent job and 40% who report he is doing a good one.  29% rate his job performance as fair while just 11% think he is performing poorly.  8% are unsure.

Cuomo’s approval rating continues to decline.  Last week, 56% of registered voters told The Marist Poll they thought Cuomo deserved high marks while 29% gave him a grade of “fair.” 13% said he had fallen short while just 2% were unsure.

Table: Cuomo Approval Rating
Table: Cuomo Approval Rating Over Time

43% Approval Rating for Obama in NYS

43% of registered voters statewide think President Barack Obama is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  Included here are 13% who think the president is doing an excellent job and 30% who say he is doing a good one.  27% rate the president as fair while 29% think he is doing a poor job.  One percent is unsure.

President Obama’s approval rating last week was 47%.  Included here were 16% who said he was doing an excellent job and 31% who described his efforts as good.   22% called his performance fair, and 31% said the president was doing a poor job in office.

Table: Obama Approval Rating
Table: Obama Approval Rating Over Time

NYS Voters Divide About U.S. Economy

Nearly half of registered New York voters — 49% — believe that, when thinking about the U.S. economy, the worst is behind us while 47% say the worst is yet to come.  4% are unsure.  When Marist asked this question last week, 53% reported the worst of America’s economic problems are behind us while 43% said the worst is yet to come.  4% were unsure.

In the most recent national Marist Poll, 53% believed the worst is yet to come while 43% thought the worst of the nation’s economic problems are still ahead.  4% were unsure.

Table: U.S. Economy – Will It Get Worse?

Marist Poll Methodology

Lee Miringoff discusses Paladino’s chances against Cuomo:

9/30: Polls, Polls Everywhere

Don’t be thrown by a recent flurry of New York State polls on the governor’s contest between “The Son also Rises” Andrew Cuomo and “I’ll clean up Albany with a baseball bat” Carl Paladino.  Is Cuomo ahead by 6 points (Quinnipiac) or 33 points (Siena), or somewhere in between, 19 points (Marist)?  Much of the difference can be explained in the varied methodologies of the polling organizations.   Were the numbers based upon registered or likely voters?  Was former Conservative Party candidate Rick Lazio included in the tossup question?

Public opinion polling has a statistical basis but a great deal of the sausage making has to do with the judgments and interpretations of the various pollsters.  How are respondents selected? Are cell phones being used as well as landlines? What effort is being made to reach hard to reach voters? What is the question wording and order?  Is the quality of the interviewing up to industry standards? How is the data balanced to ensure it reflects the electorate?   AND, so much more…

Clearly, not all polls are created equally.  Given the range of possibilities each poll organization can utilize, it may be more surprising that poll results are often similar and not all over the map as recently occurred in the New York governor’s race.

Now, this electorate is a tougher read than in recent election cycles, especially when it comes to who is likely to turn out.  It is a volatile time, and the polls will need to pick up on that uncertainty.  Having said that, I suspect the next round of Cuomo-Paladino polls to be singing a similar tune.  It is also unlikely the media will serve up a similar amount of coverage to the “polls are similar” story as the recent avalanche of words devoted to the “why polls are so different.”

9/30: Back to the Statistical Drawing Board

I couldn’t help but notice that, according to the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research), the economic recession is over.  This caught me off guard because I was under the impression that the economy was still teetering, mired in a slump comparable to the Chicago Cubs qualifying for post-season play.

So, I took a closer look and was even more astonished that NBER’s September 20th release was based on data dating back to June 2009.  Clearly, the problems that Americans are experiencing as they try to make ends meet are far more immediate than this report.   And, to add to my cognitive dissonance, according to the latest McClatchy-Marist national survey, 80% of the nation thinks the U.S. economy is currently in an economic recession.   Go figure!

Now, President Obama, donning his “politician-in-chief” hat, quickly pointed out how the economists are off-base matched up against people struggling to pay their daily bills.   But, the economists have their tried and failed models which calibrate the relative health of the economy even if they don’t jive with public realities.  The ol’ “perfessor” Casey Stengel might be instructive to these financial forecasters.  “Can’t anybody here play this game?” Step up to the plate and revise your statistical models.  If not, run the risk of being cast aside in the public dialogue.

9/29: Daily News/Marist Poll

In the race for New York governor, do voters statewide think the candidates are fit to be governor?  Find out the answer in the latest Daily News/Marist Poll in New York State.  Click here to read the full Daily News article.

Tables for the Marist Poll Conducted for the Daily News:

Cuomo Fit to be Governor?

Paladino Fit to be Governor?

Read or Heard Comments Made by Paladino

Paladino on Albany

Paladino on Health Care Plan

Paladino on Recent Emails

Paladino on Criticism Saying He’s Blunt

Paladino on Public Assistance

Paladino Fit to be Governor (After Statements)

Marist Poll Methodology

9/28: Gillibrand Leads DioGuardi, 52% to 41%, Among Likely Voters

Both of New York’s seats in the U.S. Senate are up in this November’s midterm elections.  In the race between Democratic U.S. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand and her Republican opponent, Joseph DioGuardi, Gillibrand holds an 11 percentage point lead among likely voters in New York State.  A majority — 52% — reports they support Gillibrand while 41% say they back DioGuardi.  7% are unsure.

Click Here for Complete September 28, 2010 Poll Results and Tables

Not surprisingly, there is a partisan divide among likely voters.  85% of likely Democratic voters plan to support Gillibrand while 9% say they will back DioGuardi.  80% of likely Republican voters intend to cast their ballot for DioGuardi while 14% say they will vote for Gillibrand.  A plurality of non-enrolled voters who are likely to cast their ballot on Election Day — 46% — throw their support behind Gillibrand while 41% back DioGuardi.

81% of likely voters who are supporters of the Tea Party favor candidate DioGuardi while 14% are pulling for Gillibrand.  5% are unsure.

”The seat is leaning Gillibrand’s way,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, the contest remains competitive.”

Gillibrand is the clear leader among likely voters in New York City but not in other regions in the state.  About two-thirds of likely New York City voters — 66% — support Gillibrand while 27% back DioGuardi.  7% are unsure.  Voters in upstate New York and in the suburbs of New York City divide.  Upstate, Gillibrand garners the support of 47% while DioGuardi nets 45% from likely upstate voters.  7% are unsure.  And, in the suburbs, including Westchester County which is DioGuardi’s regional base of support, nearly half of likely voters — 49% — back DioGuardi while 45% support Gillibrand.  6% are unsure.

When likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate are taken into consideration, 54% report they plan to cast their ballot for Gillibrand while 42% state they will vote for DioGuardi.  4% are unsure.

Among the overall statewide electorate, Gillibrand nets 55% of registered voters’ support compared with DioGuardi’s 36%.  9% are unsure.

Table: U.S. Senate in New York Tossup – Gillibrand/DioGuardi (Likely Voters)
Table: U.S. Senate in New York Tossup – Gillibrand/DioGuardi (Likely Voters with Leaners)
Table: U.S. Senate in New York Tossup – Gillibrand/DioGuardi (Registered Voters)

Strong Support for Gillibrand and DioGuardi

How strongly are likely voters supporting their choice of candidate?  A slim majority — 51% — say they strongly support their pick while 35% somewhat support their candidate.  13%, however, might vote differently on Election Day.  Just 1% are unsure.

“This could be an important factor in the contest.  Nearly half of the probable electorate is still up for grabs,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “They either somewhat support a candidate or might vote differently.”

A majority of likely voters who support DioGuardi — 54% — are firmly backing him.  An additional 33% are somewhat behind him while 13% may change their mind.  1% are unsure.

Senator Gillibrand receives similar intensity of support.  Half of likely voters who back her — 50% — report they are firmly in her camp.  36% are somewhat behind her while 14% might cast their ballot differently.  Fewer than 1% are unsure.

Table: Candidates’ Strength of Support – Gillibrand/DioGuardi (Likely Voters)
Table: Candidates’ Strength of Support – Gillibrand/DioGuardi (Registered Voters)

Schumer with 21 Percentage Point Lead Over Townsend

U.S. Senator Chuck Schumer enjoys a comfortable lead over his challenger Jay Townsend in the race for U.S. Senate in New York.  Among likely voters statewide, 58% say they will support Schumer while 37% report they will cast their ballot for Townsend.  5% are unsure.

While most Democrats who are likely to vote in November — 86% — back Schumer, he also receives the support of one-fourth — 25% — of likely Republican voters.  Seven in ten Republicans — 70% — pull for Townsend while he takes one-tenth of the likely Democratic vote.    Among likely voters who are not enrolled in any party, Schumer has a 7 percentage point lead.  49% report they will vote for Schumer while 42% state they will back Townsend.

Townsend, however, is the favorite among likely voters who support the Tea Party.  Most in this group — 79% — choose Townsend for senator while 18% want Schumer to represent them.  3% are unsure.

Regardless of region, Schumer outpaces Townsend.  Schumer has the best early showing in New York City.  Here, almost three-quarters of likely voters — 74% — support Schumer while 23% back Townsend.  3% are unsure.  Schumer also receives majority support in the city’s suburbs.  51% of likely voters in this region plan to cast their ballot for Schumer compared with 44% who toss their support behind Townsend.  5% are unsure.  Half of likely upstate voters back Schumer while 43% want Townsend to win.  7% here are unsure.

Schumer maintains his lead when likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate are included.  Schumer receives the support of nearly six in ten — 59% — to Townsend’s 38%.  3% are unsure.

When looking at registered voters, Schumer’s lead grows to thirty-one percentage points.  63% are for Schumer while 32% back Townsend.  5% are unsure.

Table: U.S. Senate in New York Tossup – Schumer/Townsend (Likely Voters)
Table: U.S. Senate in New York Tossup – Schumer/Townsend (Likely Voters with Leaners)
Table: U.S. Senate in New York Tossup – Schumer/Townsend (Registered Voters)

Schumer Supporters More Intense in Support of Candidate

In the Schumer-Townsend race for U.S. Senate, 63% of likely voters strongly support their choice of candidate.  29% somewhat support their pick while 7% might vote differently.  Just 1% are unsure.

Schumer backers are more committed to their candidate.  Among likely voters who support the incumbent, 70% strongly support him while 24% somewhat back him.  Just 6% might change their minds before Election Day, and fewer than 1% are unsure.

Townsend enjoys strong support from a majority of his supporters who are likely to vote — 52%.  An additional 37% are somewhat confident they won’t second guess their decision while 10% might waver.  1% are unsure.

Table: Candidates’ Strength of Support – Schumer/Townsend (Likely Voters)
Table: Candidates’ Strength of Support – Schumer/Townsend (Registered Voters)

Nearly Four in Ten Very Enthusiastic About November Vote

38% of registered voters in New York State express they are very enthusiastic about voting in this November’s elections.

Republican voters are more enthusiastic than are Democrats and non-enrolled voters.  A majority of Republicans — 51% — are highly enthusiastic while 34% of Democrats share the same level of enthusiasm.  31% of non-enrolled voters are very enthusiastic.

Table: Enthusiasm to Vote

Schumer Approval Rating at 47%

47% of voters currently report Senator Schumer is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  This includes 15% who think he is doing an excellent job and 32% who say he is doing a good one.  31% rate his performance as fair while 19% think he is doing poorly.  Just 3% are unsure.

When Marist last asked voters about Senator Schumer’s approval rating in May, 50% of the electorate gave him above average marks.  31% thought his job performance was fair while 16% reported he fell short.  3%, at the time, were unsure.

Table: Schumer Approval Rating
Table: Schumer Approval Rating Over Time

No Bump in Gillibrand Approval Rating

There has been little change in Senator Kirsten Gillibrand’s approval rating.  27% of registered voters think Gillibrand is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  Included here are 4% who say she is doing an excellent job and 23% who rate her performance as good.  38% grade her job as fair while 18% think she is performing poorly.  17% are unsure.

In Marist’s May survey, 27% gave her a thumbs-up while 37% thought she did an average job.  14%, at the time, believed her performance was poor, and 22% were unsure.

Table: Gillibrand Approval Rating
Table: Gillibrand Approval Rating Over Time

Marist Poll Methodology

9/28: The New York Ballot in 2010

Despite calls to replace all incumbents regardless of whether they are Democrats or Republicans, Political Analyst Jay Dedapper thinks most of New York’s incumbents will hold onto their seats. And, he tells the Marist Poll’s John Sparks that’s because he believes voter turnout will be low in the upcoming midterm elections.

Listen to Part 1 of the Interview:

John Sparks
Jay, the last time we spoke, you told me New Yorkers were not all that excited about races coming up on the November ballot.  Since then, however, the Tea Party scored a couple more primary victories, and a New York Times‘ poll recently reported that voters across the country, they said they’re disenchanted with all incumbents regardless of whether they’re Democrats or Republicans.  Do you still feel that New York voters are rather lukewarm about these upcoming races?

Jay DeDapper
Yeah, I do.  I think there’s the anger and the frustration that voters say they feel in polls actually hasn’t really showed up at the polls. It’s showed up in terms of the number of people who do come to the polls and vote, but take a look at that race in Delaware, for instance, with Christine O’Donnell, and here’s someone who got a big victory over a moderate Republican that was supported by the party structure.  But, look at the number of people who turned out to vote. It was fewer than 25% of — or less than 25% of the Republican electorate.  So, yeah, people are frustrated and upset and angry. So far, there hasn’t been a lot of evidence that mass numbers of people are so upset and angry that they’re actually going to bother to go to the polls and do anything about it, at least not in primaries.  I think the situation in New York is exacerbated by the fact that there’s such a large Democratic registration advantage, and at least right now the premier race, the marquee race, which is for governor, is headlined by a guy, Andrew Cuomo, who does not really  –  there’s not a lot of animosity towards him among independents.  Republicans may not like him because his Cuomo, but independents don’t really seem to dislike Andrew Cuomo all that much, and they are the only ones who could swing this race into something that would be considered competitive, I think.

John Sparks
So, Andrew Cuomo in the governor’s race, Paladino really doesn’t have a shot since he knocked off Lazio?

Jay DeDapper
Well, again, you have to look at the registration advantage the Democrats have in the state, and for a Republican to win in New York, any statewide office, in the last ten years or so, it hasn’t happened, and it hasn’t happened because that registration advantage is so large.  When it’s happened in the past, even when the Democrats have held a big registration advantage, it happened at the end of Cuomo, for instance, the last Cuomo when he was running for a fourth term, and George Pataki ran as kind of an outsider and an independent.  In this case, Andrew Cuomo, the son of Mario Cuomo, is not running for a fourth term.  He’s running as an outsider.  He’s running as the guy who could come in and fix Albany. There is no incumbent that’s running, so I don’t think that the Republicans have the advantage that they have when they’re running against incumbent Democrats who have frankly been in office too long.  That’s not the case in this case, and it’s going to — it would take a overwhelming turnout among independents and Republicans and for Democrats to simply stay home, lots and lots of Democrats to stay home, to get Paladino much of a chance, and that doesn’t even accept the fact that Republicans are pretty split about him winning.

Listen to Part 2:

John Sparks
And, so I don’t suppose Chuck Schumer’s staying awake at night worrying about Jay Townsend these days?

Jay DeDapper
Yeah, I mean there are on top of the gubernatorial race, there are two Senate races. Chuck Schumer is one of them, and Kirsten Gillibrand is the second.  So, both U.S. Senate seats are up.  Chuck Schumer is clearly the one that doesn’t have anything to worry about because he still has, among all the politicians in New York that are in office and running for re-election, he’s the one who has the highest rating of favorability.  It’s not as high as it once was, but as you said at the very beginning, it doesn’t really matter what party you’re in, if you’re an incumbent, people are angry.

John Sparks
You know, Gillibrand’s an interesting study I think.  At one time there were mixed reviews even among Democrats when she was appointed.  What sense do you get now?  Is there any chance that her opponent can surprise her?

Jay DeDapper
I think there’s more of a chance there than there is that Paladino’s going to surprise Cuomo or Jay Townsend’s going to surprise Chuck Schumer.  There doesn’t… She has failed over the course of her term — her time in office, and remember, she replaced Hillary Clinton when Hillary Clinton became Secretary of State. And as you alluded to, there was a lot of consternation among Democrats that the governor at the time, David Paterson, appointed her as opposed to appointing someone else, like Caroline Kennedy. Kirsten Gillibrand came in with that problem of Democrats feeling that she wasn’t the best — many Democrats feeling she wasn’t the best candidate, and I don’t think she’s done a lot in the last two years. I think she’s tried, but I don’t think she’s made a lot of progress in convincing Democrats that she’s really the senator that they would pick if they really had their choice.  It’s not much of a choice.  I mean all of that being said, the Republican challenger that she’s facing is not well — particularly well-known, not particularly well-funded, and in a year like this when you’ve got a Cuomo and Schumer on the ballot, it seems unlikely to me that a Gillibrand is going to have enough trouble that she is going to be in danger of losing this seat.  But of all the major races, she’s the one because she has failed to really garner strong Democratic support.  I think she’s probably the one who faces the only real challenge.

John Sparks
And whoever wins this one will be up again three years from now.

Jay DeDapper
Yeah, well two years from now. Three years from now, but two years from Election Day…

John Sparks
True.

Jay DeDapper
Therefore, January.  Yeah, this is a strange race because she was appointed, and by New York State law, once you’re appointed to fill out the seat, you don’t actually fill out the entire time. You actually have to run in the next general election so that the voters get a chance to approve or disapprove of the appointment. But then you only fill out the term as it is legislatively laid out or constitutionally laid out, and Hillary Clinton’s term was supposed to end in 2012.  So Kirsten Gillibrand, should she win, will be running again in 2012.  So, there’s a lot of races for her.  But I suspect that with most  –  as with most incumbents, the longer that you — the more you’re able to get through tough races early on, the more — the better chances you have later on of fending off tough challengers and having tough races.

Listen to Part 3:

John Sparks
You know Charlie Rangel’s had his problems lately.  Do you think that that will sway voters in his congressional district this time?

Jay DeDapper
Wel, if that was going to happen, it was going to happen in the primary. He was running against Adam Clayton Powell IV. Remember, Charlie Rangel won his historic race back in the ’70s against Adam Clayton Powell’s father.  Adam Clayton Powell was a historic African American congressman.  Charlie Rangel ran as the new blood, the new breed, the new guy who was going to come in and shake things up.  Well, now he’s the old guy, the old guard, and Adam Clayton Powell IV didn’t come anywhere close to unseating him in the Democratic primary.  And let’s face it, in our Harlem, a Republican’s not going to win in Harlem. The district that Charlie Rangel is in is one of the most Democratic districts in the entire country. So, if you don’t beat him in the primary, he’s not going to lose the race.

John Sparks
Do you see any upsets in congressional races in New York?

Jay DeDapper
Mike McMahon on Staten Island. That’s a seat that has been Republican for many years.  Vito Fossella lost that or decided not to run for re-election in that seat after the scandal involving a mistress and a child.  Before that, Susan Molinari held that seat.  It’s been a Republican seat for a long time.  Mike McMahon won it in a tight election in an overwhelmingly Democratic year, 2008.  I would say that’s probably in the New York City area, the one where there’s the most risk to an incumbent, and in this case a Democrat. There’s some outside of the direct New York City area.  John Hall in the Hudson Valley who won in 2004, I believe, it may have been 2006.  He won in what was kind of a Democratic year. It must’ve been 2006.  That’s a district that has been Republican in the past.  It’s kind of a swing district, and I imagine he’s facing — I believe he’s facing a veteran, Iraq War veteran.  That could be a tough race as well.  And there’s some in Upstate New York, some congressional Democrats that won again in either 2006 or 2008, very strong Democratic years, in seats that have traditionally been kind of squishy, not very Democratic, a little bit more Republican, and all of them could face some problems. But in the New York City area, Mike McMahon, I think, is the only seat to really watch for an upset.

John Sparks
But, all in all for the most part, I take it that you see not very many upsets in, what, low to moderate turnout?

Jay DeDapper
Yeah.  There doesn’t seem to be the passion. And even again, this goes back to my original point. If you look at what happened in the Republican primary in New York, Paladino beat Lazio, Lazio being the kind of the standard candidate of the Republican Party, by a very large margin, but the number of people who turned out was not huge. It wasn’t like 50% of Republican voters turned out. The turnout was really quite low.  These are among allegedly very angry voters, the Republican voters, and they didn’t really turn out. I think that what you see in election years like what’s coming up, and we saw it in 1994, is that you have a very motivated portion of the electorate that turns out and can sway elections. I’m not denying that they can sway elections in dramatic fashion, but it’s not a majority. It’s not even a significant minority.  It’s a fairly small number of people who are really upset and really angry who bother to go to the polls, and they do make a difference in years like this. I think unfortunately apathy is the more common thing that you see in a year like this, voters that are just frustrated and angry or frustrated and angry, but angry in a way that doesn’t translate into action.

Listen to Part 4:

John Sparks
Jay, always a pleasure to talk politics with you.  Any other thoughts you’d like to share about the upcoming midterm election?

Jay DeDapper
I think it’s going to be really interesting to see if the people who have been driving the elections this year, and they’re not all Republicans and they’re not all Tea Party members, the people who have been driving elections all year all across the country have been people who are angry. Some of them are Democrats.  Some Democratic incumbents have lost in primaries.  It’ll be interesting to me that once you get to the general election, and everybody in the nations focused on this first major Election Day after Barack Obama became President.  And if Barack Obama throws some of his weight into this, as it looks like he’s going to, it’ll be really interesting to me to see if there’s kind of a counterweight to that anger, that anti-incumbent anger, that ends up supporting some incumbents (In many cases, that would be Democrats) and whether that’s enough to offset some of this anger that seems to be aimed at ousting incumbents, including many Democrats. I think the other thing to watch for, and everybody’s talked about it, but it’s fascinating to me, is — what is the role the Tea Party plays in the future of the GOP?  In Tea Party activists and in angry voters electing or putting on the ballot, excuse me, in primaries, people like Christine O’Donnell in Delaware — does that create a situation where the Republican Party in a general election is so out of the mainstream, is so filled with candidates who are so crazy that the party actually ends up blowing an incredible opportunity that’s been handed to them on a silver platter and fails to capitalize in a significant way on the intense voter dissatisfaction? That is something that I think is fascinating, and I think everybody’s looking at that. Everybody’s talking about, but that’s the big story, and I think will remain the big story all the way to Election Day.

9/28: Voters’ Outlook on NYS Economy

When thinking about the New York State economy, 46% of voters currently believe New York’s economy is getting worse, 42% report it is staying about the same, and 12% report it is getting better.  When Marist last asked this question in May, 48% of voters believed the state’s economy was getting worse, 37% said it was staying about the same, and 15% reported it was getting better.

Click Here for Complete September 24, 2010 NYS Poll Release and Tables

Republican voters are the most pessimistic on this question.  60% of the state’s GOP think the economy is getting worse while 32% believe it is staying about the same.  9% say it is getting better.  Nearly half of Democrats are tentative about the New York State economy.  48% report the economy is steady, 38% think it is declining, and 14% say it is improving.  A plurality of non-enrolled voters — 47% — believe New York’s economy is declining.  41% think it is on a steady plain, and 12% say it is on an upswing.

Regionally, upstate voters have the most dismal outlook on the statewide economy compared with New York City and the suburbs.  A majority — 55% — think the state’s economy is declining while nearly four in ten — 39% — think it is constant.  Just 6% say it is getting better.  In Marist’s May survey, 57%, 33%, and 11%, respectively, held these views.

In the Big Apple, 46% report the economy is status quo.  38% say it is deteriorating, and 16% think it is getting better.  In May, 43% of New York City voters thought the state’s economy was remaining about the same, 36% believed it was getting worse, and 21% believed it was getting better.

Little has changed in the suburbs of New York City, 43% report the economy is staying about the same, 40% think it is getting worse, and 17% believe it is getting better.  In May, 39%, 44%, and 17%, respectively, shared these views.

Table: New York State Economy

Getting Personal: Nearly Six in Ten Believe Family Finances Steady in the Next Year

58% of voters in the state expect their personal family finances to stay the same in the next year.  This compares with 26% who report their family financial situation will get better and 16% who say it will get worse.

When Marist last asked this question in May, 54% said their family finances will get neither better nor worse, 27% thought their financial picture would improve, and 16% thought their personal finances would diminish.

Fewer voters in New York City believe their family finances will get better.  That proportion currently stands at 31% while 41% held that view in Marist’s previous survey.    However, the proportion of voters who anticipate their money matters will get worse has changed little.  Currently, 13% have this outlook while 16% did so in May.  Instead, more voters in New York City think their personal finances will stay the same.  56% believe this to be the case now while 43% thought that way in May.  In the suburbs of New York City and upstate, there has been little shift since the last time Marist asked this question.

Voters’ views in New York are consistent with those of voters nationally.  Among registered voters in the United States, 53% report their personal financial situation will remain the same, 26% think it will get better, and 21% say it will get worse.

Table: Family Finances in the Coming Year

Majority of NYS Voters Say U.S. Economy’s Worst is Behind Us

A majority of registered voters in New York State — 53% — are optimistic about the future of the country’s economy.  This is the proportion of voters who say that, when thinking about the economy of the United States, the worst is behind us.  43%, however, think the worst is yet to come.  4% are unsure.

These results are in contrast with those Marist found in its most recent national survey.  When registered voters nationwide were asked the same question, 53% reported the worst is yet to come while 43% said the worst is behind us.

Among registered Democratic voters in New York, 64% think the worst of the nation’s economic conditions are behind us while 31% say the worst is still to come.  Looking at Republican voters, 61% report they think there is more bad economic news in the future while 37% think the worst is over.  54% of non-enrolled voters statewide think the worst is behind us while 42% of these voters believe the worst is still to come.

There are regional differences.  Voters in the suburbs of New York City are more optimistic than those in New York City and upstate.  60% of voters in the suburbs report the worst is over while 53% of those in New York City and half of upstate voters share this view.

Table: U.S. Economy – Will It Get Worse?

Marist Poll Methodology

Coming Soon!

The Marist Poll is hard at work with its midterm election polling.  So, check back with this page often!  We’ll have the results of those surveys soon!

9/24: Cuomo Leads Paladino by 19 Percentage Points Among Likely Voters

In the race for New York governor, Democrat Andrew Cuomo receives the support of 52% of likely voters statewide compared with 33% for Republican Carl Paladino.  Rick Lazio, on the Conservative line, garners the support of 9% of likely voters.  6% are unsure.

Click Here for Complete September 24, 2010 NYS Poll Results and Tables

Not surprisingly, Cuomo receives the backing of 81% of Democratic voters who are likely to cast their ballot on Election Day.  However, he is also buoyed by a notable proportion of likely Republican voters — 19%.  Paladino garners the support of more than six in ten Republicans who are likely to vote — 63%, but only 11% of likely Democratic voters.  Looking at likely voters who are not enrolled in any party, Cuomo receives 44% to 33% who plan to cast their ballot for Paladino.  Lazio receives the support of 14% of likely non-enrolled voters, 11% of the likely Republican vote, and 4% of Democrats who are likely to vote.

Many likely voters who consider themselves supporters of the Tea Party back Paladino.  69% report this to be the case while 14% back Lazio, and 13% support Cuomo.  4% are unsure.

“Andrew Cuomo is ahead, and right now, this is not a close race,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “He is being bolstered by the Lazio factor, but he is just above 50% among likely voters, and you can’t overlook the enthusiasm Republicans are bringing to this election cycle.”

Regionally, Cuomo runs best in New York City followed by the New York City suburbs.  In the Big Apple, 65% of likely voters say they plan to vote for Cuomo while 23% report they will cast their ballot for Paladino.  Lazio receives the support of just 6%.  Moving to the suburbs, Cuomo garners a majority of likely voters in this region — 52% — while Paladino and Lazio net 30% and 16%, respectively.  Upstate, Cuomo and Paladino receive the same support.  Both Cuomo and Paladino take 43% of likely upstate voters.  Just 7% of likely upstate voters say they will cast their ballot for Lazio.  7% are also unsure.

When likely voters who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate are thrown into the mix, Cuomo receives 53% of the vote compared with Paladino’s 34%.  Lazio takes 10%, and 3% remain unsure.

Looking at the overall electorate, 55% of registered voters statewide support Cuomo while 29% say they back Paladino.  Lazio receives the nod from just 10% of New York registered voters.  6% are unsure.

Table: NY Gubernatorial Tossup (Likely Voters)
Table: NY Gubernatorial Tossup (Likely Voters Including Leaners)
Table: NY Gubernatorial Tossup (Registered Voters)

Cuomo and Paladino with Strong Support

Nearly six in ten likely voters — 59% — report they strongly support their choice for governor while more than one-fourth — 28% — somewhat support their candidate.  12% say they might vote differently.

Among likely voters who report they will back Andrew Cuomo for governor, 64% state they strongly support him, and 25% say they somewhat support him.  10%, on the other hand, might vote differently come Election Day.

Paladino’s supporters share a similar level of support.  Looking at likely voters who support Paladino, 61% firmly back him, and 32% somewhat support him.  7% might change their minds and vote differently.

Rick Lazio’s supporters aren’t as intense in their level of support.  Only 30% of likely voters who support Lazio report they are unwavering in their support while 28% are somewhat behind him.  40% may alter their decision before Election Day and choose another candidate.

Table: Candidates’ Strength of Support (Likely Voters)
Table: Candidates’ Strength of Support (Registered Voters)

About Two-thirds For Candidate

When asked whether they selected their respective candidate because they are for him or against his opponents, 66% of likely voters say they are for their respective candidate while 32% report they are against the others.   2% are unsure.

While more than seven in ten Cuomo supporters — 72% — choose him because they are for him, more than a quarter of his  backers — 26% — say they support Cuomo because they are against Paladino and Lazio.  When compared with Cuomo supporters, fewer Paladino backers report they are voting for their candidate rather than against the other candidates for governor.  58% say they are for Paladino while 39% support him because they don’t want Cuomo or Lazio to win.  Although a majority of likely voters who plan to support Lazio — 53% — are backing him because they think he is the best candidate, 45% are doing so because they are against his opponents.

Table: Voting for Candidate or Against Opponents? (Likely Voters)
Table: Voting for Candidate or Against Opponents? (Registered Voters)

The Enthusiasm Factor: Majority of Republicans Express Highest Enthusiasm

Are registered voters in New York State enthusiastic about voting this November?  38% report they are very enthusiastic.

Republicans are expressing more enthusiasm about casting their ballot this fall than are Democrats.  51% of registered Republican voters say they are very enthusiastic.  This compares with 34% of Democratic voters and 31% of non-enrolled voters who report the same.

Among registered voters who back Paladino — 58% — are very enthusiastic .  This compares with 30% of Cuomo’s supporters and 32% of Lazio’s backers who share this degree of excitement.

Table: Enthusiasm to Vote

Voters Dissatisfied with Albany … Want a New Direction for the State

Voters are displeased with the way state government in Albany is run.  More than seven in ten registered voters statewide — 72% — believe the way things are run need major changes while 13% think state government is broken and beyond repair.  15% are more forgiving and report that state government’s modus operandi needs minor changes.  Less than 1% of the electorate say no changes are needed.

Little has changed on this question since Marist last asked it in May.  At that time, seven in ten voters — 70% — believed major changes were needed in Albany, and 16% said Albany was beyond repair.  13% thought minor changes needed to be applied, and 1% stated all was well with how Albany was being run.

With voters expressing such a high level of dissatisfaction with state government, it’s probably little surprise that 73% of registered voters think the state needs to be re-directed.  24%, however, believe New York is moving in the right direction.  3% are unsure.

When Marist last asked voters in New York about the direction of the state, a similar proportion — 72% — thought the state needed a new course while 22% said it was on the right path.  6%, at the time, were unsure.

Table: Status of State Government in Albany
Table: Status of State Government in Albany Over Time

Table: NYS Direction
Table: NYS Direction Over Time

Out with the Old… Approval Rating for Paterson Stands at 19%

Voters’ disapproval of Governor David Paterson remains evident.  Currently, about one-fifth of registered voters in New York State — 19% — think Paterson is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  This includes 3% who report he is doing an excellent job and 16% who say he is doing a good one.  40% rate the job Paterson is doing as governor as fair while the same proportion — 40% — think he is performing poorly.  1% are unsure.

In Marist’s May survey, 19% gave Paterson high marks, and 38% rated his job performance as fair.  About four in ten — 41% — rated Paterson poorly.  2% were unsure.

Table: Paterson Approval Rating
Table: Paterson Approval Rating Over Time

Dip In Cuomo Approval Rating

There has been a decline in New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo’s job approval rating due to a drop in the proportions of registered Republican voters and non-enrolled voters who now approve of his performance in office.

Among registered voters, 56% say Cuomo is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  Included here are 18% who think he is doing an excellent job and 38% who believe he is doing a good one.  29% rate Cuomo as fair while just 13% call his performance poor.  2% are unsure.

In Marist’s May survey, 64% gave Cuomo a thumbs-up, 27% said he was doing a fair job, and only 6% thought he performed poorly.  3% were unsure.

While Cuomo’s Democratic base is firm, fewer Republicans and non-enrolled voters give him a thumbs-up.  36% of Republican voters and 55% of non-enrolled voters currently think Cuomo is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  This compares with 58% and 63%, respectively, who thought so in May.  70% of Democrats now give Cuomo high marks while the same proportion — 70% — did so four months ago.

Table: Cuomo Approval Rating
Table: Cuomo Approval Rating Over Time

Status Quo for Comptroller DiNapoli

About one-third of registered voters statewide — 33% — think New York State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  Included here are 4% who say DiNapoli is doing an excellent job and 29% who believe he is doing a good job.  33% report he is doing a fair job while 13% think he is performing poorly.  A notable proportion of voters — 21% — have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate DiNapoli.

When Marist last asked New York State voters about Tom DiNapoli’s job performance, 29% gave the comptroller high marks, 34% rated his performance as fair, and 9% thought he was doing a poor job.  More than one-fourth — 28% — were unsure how to rate him.

Table: DiNapoli Approval Rating
Table: DiNapoli Approval Rating Over Time

Obama Approval Rating Falls to 47%

President Barack Obama’s approval rating has dropped in New York State.  Currently, 47% of registered voters in the state say the president is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  This includes 16% who report Mr. Obama is doing an excellent job and 31% who think he is doing a good job.  22% say the president’s job performance is fair while 31% believe he is performing poorly.  Fewer than 1% are unsure.

In Marist’s May survey, a majority — 55% — approved of how the president was doing in office while 22% rated his job performance as fair.  23% reported he was doing a subpar job.  Fewer than 1% were unsure.

The change has occurred among Republicans and non-enrolled voters.  While 17% of Republicans and 41% of voters not enrolled in any party currently believe the president is doing either an excellent or good job in office, 29% of the statewide GOP and a majority of non-enrolled voters — 52% — said the same four months ago.

Table: Obama Approval Rating
Table: Obama Approval Rating Over Time

Marist Poll Methodology

9/22: GOP Over Dems on Enthusiasm for Midterm Elections

According to this McClatchy-Marist Poll, about one-third of registered voters nationwide — 33% — report they are very enthusiastic about casting their ballot this November.

Click Here for Complete September 22, 2010 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll Results and Tables

Republican voters are more excited about their vote than are Democratic voters.  46% of Republican voters compared with 30% of Democrats are very enthusiastic about voting in the upcoming midterm elections.  23% of independent voters also express a high level of enthusiasm.

“This is what the campaign strategists are calculating.  GOPers want to reinforce the gap in enthusiasm.  The White House wants to close it,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “If it remains this large through the November elections, hold onto your hats when it comes to the makeup of the next Congress.”

The oldest members of the national electorate are more enthusiastic than the youngest members.  43% of voters 60 and older, compared with 16% of those younger than 30, are very enthusiastic about casting their ballot in November.

Table: Enthusiasm of Vote

Electorate Divides Over GOP Control of Congress

Do voters want control of Congress to be passed from the Democrats to the Republicans?  48% do, 46% do not, and 6% are unsure.

Not surprisingly, opinions divide along party lines with most Republican voters — 92% — saying they want their party to have control of Congress.  87% of Democrats do not.  Independent voters divide.  43% of this all-important voting block want the GOP to gain control of the legislative branch of government while 44% do not.  12% are unsure.

More than three in ten members of the overall electorate — 31% — feel strongly that control of Congress should pass to the Republicans while 17% just think the GOP should win control.  On the other hand, 23% of registered voters feel strongly that Republicans should not win control of the House and Senate while the same proportion — 23% — just don’t want them to gain a majority.  6% are unsure.

Republicans express more political passion here.  Two-thirds of registered Republican voters — 67% — feel strongly about the GOP winning control while 37% of Democrats feel strongly that Republicans should not win control.  Looking at independent voters, 24% are adamant that the Republicans take the reigns while 28% are strongly against the idea.

Table: GOP Control of Congress
Table: Intensity of Opinion About GOP Control of Congress

Republican or Democrat? Voters Divide Over Congressional Elections

Neither Democratic candidates nor Republican candidates have the edge in voters’ minds.  When asked which party’s candidate they are more likely to support in November’s midterm elections, 47% report they would back the Republican while 45% say they would back the Democrat.  3% say they would vote for neither the Democrat nor the Republican, and 5% are unsure.

However, 61% of voters who are very enthusiastic about voting this November say they are more likely to vote for the Republican candidate while 34% of those who express a high level of excitement are more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate.

There’s little surprise that 92% of Republican voters say they plan to support the Republican candidate, and 90% of Democratic voters report they will vote for the Democratic candidate.  When it comes to independent voters, a plurality — 46% — think they will back the Republican candidate while 38% believe they will support the Democratic candidate.

Table: Support of Party’s Candidate

Anti-Incumbent Sentiment?

There has been a bump in the proportion of registered voters who say they will vote for their incumbent this November.  48% report they will cast their ballot for their current elected official compared with 43% who say they will vote for someone else.  9% are unsure.

When Marist last asked this question in its July survey, voters divided.  43% thought they would vote for someone else while 42% said they would support their incumbent.  15%, at that time, were unsure.

While there is a partisan divide on this question, the proportion of Republican voters who say they will vote for their current elected official has increased.  44% say they will cast their ballot for the incumbent while 49% report they will vote for someone else.  7% are unsure.  When Marist last asked this question, 34% of Republicans wanted their incumbent, and a majority — 52% — wanted to seat a fresh face.  14% were unsure.

The proportion of independent voters who want to maintain the status quo has also increased.  43% support their incumbent while 47% want to elect someone new.  9% are unsure.  In Marist’s July survey, 36% backed their current elected official while 49% wanted a change.  14% were unsure.

Little has changed among Democratic voters.  57% want to keep their incumbent in office while 32% want someone else.  10% are unsure.  In July, 55% backed their current official, 29% wanted to bring someone new into office, and 16% were unsure.

Table: U.S. Congress – Incumbent or Other?
Table: U.S. Congress – Incumbent or Other? (Over Time)

Tea Party Revolution? About a Third of Voters Support the Movement

Talk of the Tea Party dominates news headlines.  But, does the average voter support the movement?  Although a majority of voters nationally — 55% — do not support the Tea Party movement, a notable 34% do.  This includes 11% who strongly support the movement and 23% who just support it.

How much support does the Tea Party have among the GOP?  A majority of Republicans — 56% — share allegiance.  Included here are 22% who strongly support it and 34% who support it.  About one-third — 33% — do not support the Tea Party.  Looking at Democratic voters, 76% do not back the movement.  Independent voters who back the Tea Party are also in the minority.  34% of independent voters support the Tea Party with 10% strongly supporting it and 24% supporting it.  A majority of independent voters — 55% — do not support it.

Table: Tea Party Supporters

Chart a New Course, Say Residents

A majority of Americans — 56% — think the nation is headed in the wrong direction while 41% believe it is on the right track.  3% are unsure.  There has been little change in the proportion of Americans who say the nation’s compass is broken.  When Marist last asked this question in July, 56% reported the country was moving along the wrong course compared with 37% who agreed with the trajectory of the nation.  7% were unsure.

Table: Right or Wrong Direction of the Country

Marist Poll Methodology

Lee Miringoff discusses the midterm elections:

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Interview: Carl Leubsdorf Takes Us Inside the Midterms

Interview: Bonnie Angelo Discusses the Political Climate Leading Up To the Midterm Elections

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