1/30: Ultimate Fighting “KO’d” by Nearly Seven in Ten NYS Voters

New York Governor David Paterson has proposed legalizing mixed martial arts, also known as ultimate fighting, as a way to generate more than 2 million dollars in state revenue, but do registered voters in New York State agree with the move?

Many members of the electorate — 68% — disagree with this aspect of Paterson’s 2010-2011 Executive Budget.  29%, on the other hand, agree with the legalization of ultimate fighting.  3% are unsure.

Not surprisingly, more women than men oppose making this controversial sport legal.  82% of women compared with 55% of men believe mixed martial arts should remain banned in the Empire State.

More younger voters than older ones favor the legalization of ultimate fighting.  However, even the youngest members of the electorate divide.  50% of those 18 to 29 years old say, “yes,” ultimate fighting should become part of the New York sports scene while 50% report it should not.  Opposition to Mr. Paterson’s proposal increases with voter age.  54% of those 30 to 44, 73% of voters 45 to 59, and 82% of those 60 and older all say mixed martial arts should not be legalized.

Disapproval with the governor’s push to legalize mixed martial arts spans the state, but more voters in New York City compared with those in its suburbs and upstate oppose mixed martial arts.  74% of voters in the Big Apple oppose the idea while 66% in the suburbs and 66% upstate share this view.

Table: Legalization of Mixed Martial Arts

Marist Poll Methodology

1/21: “Traveling In a World of Heightened Security”

I live in Florida, and it’s awesome! However, being a film/TV production guy, I often travel for work.  When that travel involves flying, I always get a little antsy, especially now since airport security screenings have gotten even tougher in light of the attempted Christmas Day bombing of Northwest Flight 253.

Let me say upfront that I don’t really fear terrorists like the “underwear bomber,” but rather, it’s the Transportation Security Administration that scares me senseless. Being caught unprepared for security screenings keeps me awake at night, and I avoid it like the plague.

The Air Transport Association reports that roughly 10% fewer people fly in January than in December (and, that’s without an attempted terror attack).  A USA Today/Gallup Poll, conducted earlier this month, also finds that 27% of frequent fliers are more likely than in the past to find some other means of travel rather than flying to avoid the inconveniences.  But even with fewer passengers, new security measures will undoubtedly slow the screening process. If passengers are unprepared, it will grind to a halt.

In fact, according to the TSA, the administration screened about 708 million travelers in 2006 (the most current numbers on the website…hmmm). From those travelers, they confiscated about 14 million prohibited items. That’s one item for every 50 people. Even in an example, I don’t want to be that guy.

So, anytime I fly, my goal is to navigate TSA security as efficiently as possible.  And, it all begins when you book your ticket. Not only are most airports empty at mid-morning on Tuesdays, flights are generally less expensive. If you can schedule travel during the week instead of on weekends, your travels will be easier.  I usually can get through the TSA screening line without breaking stride.

Knowing what to expect at the airport is also very important. Be sure to double-check that you’ve followed TSA guidelines when preparing for your trip (the really important stuff can be found here: http://www.tsa.gov/travelers/index.shtm).

But, a little practical knowledge never hurt anyone.  Here’s my usual plan once I check in and head to security:

1. After getting my ID and boarding pass checked, my laptop computer goes in the first plastic bin, I do not remove it from its protective neoprene case (the TSA no longer requires you to do so). My backpack (aka personal item which will fit under the seat in front of you,) goes on the conveyer belt next.

2. Shoes, belt, and jacket/sweater go in the second tub. The key to expediting this process is taking off your jacket/sweater while simultaneously stepping out of your shoes. Practice at home if you feel you may lose your balance and embarrass yourself.

3. If you carry a second bag (this one is your actual “carry on”, and goes in the overhead compartment), it waits patiently on the floor next to you until, barefoot and beltless, you place it on the conveyer belt just moments before the TSA screener motions you through the metal detector.

There are various things that will impede this streamlined process. (To the blonde lady of medium height at Jacksonville International Airport who didn’t realize that her Sam’s-Club-sized bottle of Suave conditioner didn’t meet the 3.4oz requirement and felt the need to argue about it, I am talking to YOU.)

The only way to avoid getting tripped up by these amateur travelers is to carefully pre-screen your fellow passengers during check-in and while in the security line. People who do not have their IDs in hand, or who fail to extract a crisp boarding pass on the first dive into their overflowing shoulder bag are prime suspects and should be avoided! If at all possible, try to skip ahead of them in line without drawing attention to yourself.

These tactics will help you navigate TSA security in a timelier manner.  If nothing else, they will keep you from being like the blonde in Jacksonville – or the rest of us who were stuck behind her.

This article is written by Chad Carter who assists The Marist Poll with video production.

1/20: GOP Upset: Could New York Be Next?

In the aftermath of Scott Brown’s stunning upset win in Massachusetts, Democrats around the nation are at best re-evaluating the political landscape.  At worse, panic has set in.  New York, one of the bluest of the blue states, is no exception.  Democrats currently hold all statewide elected positions in the state… governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, comptroller, the two U.S. Senate seats, as well as both chambers of the state legislature in Albany.  All of these seats are being contested in 2010.  Ironically, only U.S. Senator Chuck Schumer and NYS Attorney General Andrew Cuomo were actually elected statewide to the positions they currently hold.

There are probably more questions than answers raised by Massachusetts.  Topping the list of Democratic concerns in New York is Senator Kirsten Gillibrand.  She was appointed by an unelected, unpopular governor to fill the term of Hillary Clinton.  Gillibrand’s approval rating lags in the mid-twenties.  The upside:  she enjoys the strong backing of Senator Schumer and the White House.   But, is she vulnerable to an anti-establishment appeal of former Tennessee Congressman Harold Ford?  And, what about the GOP candidate in November?  Rudy Giuliani , the strongest potential challenger, has opted not to run.  Former Governor George Pataki remains on the bench without telegraphing his intentions.  The only announced GOPer is Bruce Blakeman.  Not exactly a household name. But, then again, Scott Brown certainly wasn’t either.

Senator Schumer also faces the electorate this fall.  His approval rating has ebbed in recent months from 58% in Mid-September to 54% in November to its current level of 51%.  No challengers have come forward as yet.  Might someone be encouraged by the Massachusetts result?  (The only sad Republicans in Massachusetts are those who thought the race was not winnable and stayed on the sideline.)

The view from Albany is just as murky.  Democrat Andrew Cuomo is likely to challenge David Paterson for governor.  Cuomo is the most popular of the statewide crowd.  But, he would have to walk the fine line between demonstrating he has the experience to be effective while not appearing too close to the dysfunction that has poisoned voters’ views of state government.  The best known on the GOP potential line-up for governor is former Congressman Rick Lazio who last was on the political scene in his failed run against Hillary Clinton in 2000 for the U.S. Senate.  The other positions and candidates are still too far below the radar screen to garner much interest.

So, what conclusions can be drawn at this point?  Not unlike Massachusetts, Democrats far outnumber Republicans in New York State.  But, the proportion of independent voters which has fueled recent GOP victories in Obama-won states… New Jersey, Virginia, and now Massachusetts… is not as big a factor in New York as elsewhere.  Score one for the Democrats.

Obama’s approval rating in New York is 56%.  In and of itself, he is not likely to be a drag for the Democratic slate here in 2010.  Score two for the Democrats.  But, then again, he was popular in Massachusetts and certainly couldn’t deliver in the closing innings.  And, by definition, as the Democratic incumbent, he makes this the off-year election for his party nationwide.  Score one for the GOP.

The energy and enthusiasm Democrats enjoyed over Republicans with voters just one year ago has now dissipated.  Score two for the GOP.

The Democrats have bigger marquee candidates with bigger bank accounts than their potential challengers.  Advantage Democrats.  But, the Democrats are also now the incumbents with an unhappy, change oriented electorate.  Advantage GOP.

Who will win out?  That’s now the biggest question coming out of Massachusetts.

1/18: Bump for Paterson’s Approval Rating

Could Governor Paterson’s approval rating be on an upswing?  According to the latest Marist Poll in New York State, 31% of registered voters statewide think Paterson is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  That’s a jump of 11 percentage points from when Marist last asked this question in November.  At that time, just one-fifth of the electorate approved of Paterson’s job performance.  And, fewer voters currently rate Paterson as doing poorly in office.  23% report this to be the case compared with 35% in November.

“Governor Paterson is off the canvas, and his numbers have finally shown improvement.  But, he still has a long way to go,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist Institute for Public Opinion.

The increase in the governor’s approval rating crosses party lines.  34% of Democrats, 25% of Republicans, and 33% of non-enrolled voters statewide think Paterson is doing an above average job.  These proportions have improved from November’s poll when 23% of Democrats, 15% of Republicans, and 19% of non-enrolled voters thought the same.

Although Paterson’s job performance is consistent in heavily Democratic New York City compared with November’s poll, his rating has improved upstate and in the New York suburbs.

Table: Paterson Approval Rating

Marist Poll Methodology

Related Stories:

1/18: Cuomo Approval Rating at 64%

1/18: Cuomo Approval Rating at 64%

New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo continues to be the toast of New York for registered voters in the state.

64% of the electorate think Cuomo is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  And, just 7% believe Cuomo is performing poorly.  When The Marist Poll last asked voters about Cuomo’s job approval rating in November, he received similar marks.  At that time, 66% approved of Cuomo’s job performance while 6% disapproved.

Table: Cuomo Approval Rating

Marist Poll Methodology

Related Stories:

1/18: Bump for Paterson’s Approval Rating

1/15: Dems Duke It Out for U.S. Senate Race In NY State…Gillibrand Leads Ford

Since news surfaced that former Tennessee Congressman Harold Ford Jr. is thinking about challenging fellow Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand for U.S. Senate in New York, politicos statewide and nationally have been in a frenzy.  But, does the relative newcomer to New York politics, Ford, pose a serious threat to the unelected Gillibrand?  The answer is, “Maybe.”

43% of registered Democratic voters in New York State say they would back Gillibrand in this fall’s Democratic primary while 24% would cast their ballot for Ford.  Although Gillibrand has a double-digit lead over Ford, a notable proportion — 33% — are unsure about whom they’d support.

“Gillibrand has an early lead, but she still has a lot of ground to cover,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of Marist Institute for Public Opinion. “She’s below 50% against Ford, and a third of Democrats is undecided.  Her approval rating among Democrats statewide is only 31%.”

How does the hypothetical race shape up by region?  In Gillibrand’s backyard — upstate New York — she garners 50% compared with 23% for Ford.  In heavily Democratic New York City, Gillibrand has the edge with the support of 41% of Democratic voters while Ford receives 25%.  And, in the suburbs, Gillibrand receives 38% to Ford’s 19%.  But, 34% of city Democrats are undecided, and 43% of suburban Democrats haven’t picked sides.

Table: 2010 Gillibrand/Ford Matchup

Click Here for Complete January 15, 2010 NYS Poll Release and Tables

What Matters to New York Democrats?

When it comes to the race for U.S. Senate in New York, what resonates with Democrats?  For one, electability is a factor when determining the candidate for whom to vote.  A majority — 54% — say they are more likely to vote for a candidate who has a better chance of beating the Republican candidate in November’s general election.  42% say electability makes no difference when selecting a candidate, and just 4% report it makes them less likely to vote for a candidate.

President Barack Obama’s backing also impacts New York Democrats’ vote.  Although 45% of Democratic voters in New York State report Obama’s backing makes no difference when selecting a candidate, the same proportion — 45% — says a nod from the president will make them more likely to vote for that candidate.  This includes 51% of Gillibrand supporters but only 33% of Ford backers who believe the president’s opinion matters to them.  10% of Democrats overall are less likely to vote for a candidate who has Obama’s support.

Harold Ford Jr.’s place of residence has been under the media’s microscope during the past week.  So, does a candidate’s hometown matter to Democratic voters in New York?  When it comes to whether a candidate should be from New York State, 48% report it makes no difference to them while 43% say it will make them less likely to vote for a candidate who is not from New York.  9%, however, are more likely to vote for a so-called, “carpetbagger.”

Even though about 55% of the Democratic primary vote is likely to come from New York City, the region within New York State from which a candidate hails makes little difference to Democratic voters.  67% of Democrats statewide say it doesn’t matter to them if the Democratic nominee comes from upstate including about three-quarters of Democrats who live in New York City and its suburbs.  18% are more likely to vote for such a candidate while 15% are less likely to vote for a candidate who lives north of New York City and its suburbs.

Nearly two-thirds of Democrats in New York State say a candidate who is more conservative than most Democrats in the state can still get their vote.  This includes 42% who report it makes no difference to them if a candidate is more conservative and 23% who say they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who is more conservative than most Democrats in the state.  35%, though, would be less likely to vote for such a candidate.

Both Gillibrand and Ford are “evolving” their issue positions to run statewide in New York.  But, that’s not a concern for a majority of the state’s Democrats.  52% say it makes no difference to them if a candidate changed his or her position on issues to run for statewide office.  Still, 34% would be less inclined to support such a candidate while 14% would be more likely to do so.

Table: Candidate’s Electability
Table: Obama’s Support of Candidate
Table: Candidate from Outside of NYS
Table: Candidate from Upstate NY
Table: Conservative Democrat
Table: Candidate’s Consistency on Issues

Independent Voice vs. Team Player

A majority of New York State Democrats – 56% — think it is more important for their senator to work closely with the Democratic Congressional leadership than to be an independent voice in Congress.  44%, on the other hand, believe it is more important for their U.S. Senator to be independent.

64% of Democrats who support Gillibrand are looking for a candidate who will work closely with the Democratic leadership in Congress.  In contrast, nearly six in ten – 58% — of Democrats who back Ford want a candidate who will be an independent voice.

Table: Independent Voice vs. Works with Democratic Leadership

Gillibrand Favorable to Nearly Five in Ten … Ford Unknown To Majority

48% of Democratic voters statewide view Kirsten Gillibrand favorably while 20% have an unfavorable impression of her.  32% have either never heard of the senator or are unsure how to rate her.

Her potential opponent for the Democratic nomination has a lot of work to do if he wants to become a household name in the state.  When it comes to Democrats’ impressions of Ford, a whopping 52% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  34%, though, have a positive view of Ford while 14% have an unfavorable impression of him.

Table: Gillibrand Favorability
Table: Ford Favorability

Marist Poll Methodology

Related Stories:

1/15: Gillibrand Approval Rating Still Low

The Marist Poll’s Lee Miringoff discusses how Ford and Gillibrand will try to win over New Yorkers:

1/15: Gillibrand Approval Rating Still Low

24% of registered voters in New York State think Senator Kirsten Gillibrand is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  Gillibrand’s approval rating is little changed from the last time The Marist Poll asked voters in New York State about her job performance.  Last November, 25% gave her high marks.

“Gillibrand still hasn’t gained much traction even after one year in office,” states Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion.  ”At the start of an election year, that may be a tough one for incumbents, her low approval rating shows she still has a lot of convincing to do.”

More voters say Gillibrand is performing poorly in office.  18% currently report Gillibrand is doing a subpar job while 12% thought that way in Marist’s previous poll.  And, Gillibrand has also failed to sway voters who were previously unsure about how to rate her.  25% do not have an opinion about her job performance today while 24% held that view in November.

Table: Gillibrand’s Approval Rating

Click Here for Complete January 15, 2010 NYS Poll Release and Tables

Schumer Approval Rating on a Slide

Senator Chuck Schumer still has a majority of New York voters — 51% — who think he is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  When Marist last asked about Schumer’s approval rating in November, the proportion stood at 54%.  Schumer’s approval rating has been on a decline since mid-September.  In that Marist survey, 58% of voters gave the senator high marks.

Table: Schumer Approval Rating

Gillibrand and Pataki in Close Contest … Pataki Bests Ford in Senate Race

In a hypothetical race against former New York Governor George Pataki, Democratic incumbent Senator Gillibrand is in a close contest.  45% of New York State registered voters would cast their ballot for Gillibrand if the election for U.S. Senate in New York were held today while 42% would vote for Pataki.  13% are unsure.

If former Tennessee Congressman Harold Ford Jr. were to beat out Gillibrand for the Democratic nomination, Republican Pataki would be an early favorite against Ford.  42% of registered voters statewide report they would support Pataki compared with 36% who say they would back Ford.  22% are unsure.

Table: 2010 Gillibrand/Pataki Matchup
Table: 2010 Ford/Pataki Matchup

Obama Approval Rating Steady

A majority of registered voters in New York State approve of President Barack Obama’s job performance.  56% say he is doing either an excellent or good job in office while 21% say he is performing poorly.  Similar proportions shared these views when Marist last asked about the president’s job performance in late November.

Table: Obama Approval Rating

Marist Poll Methodology

Related Stories:

1/15: Dems Duke It Out for U.S. Senate Race In NY State…Gillibrand Leads Ford

The Marist Poll’s Lee Miringoff discusses how Ford and Gillibrand will try to win over New Yorkers:

1/15: The Best Laid Plans…

Kirsten Gillibrand and Harold Ford Jr. are improbable rivals for the U.S. Senate seat held only recently by Hillary Clinton.  But, then again, Hillary Clinton was inevitably White House bound and Governor Spitzer was thought to be considering then Lieutenant Governor David Paterson to fill her unexpired senate term.  Okay.  So, things don’t always work out as planned.

Now, the Obama White House seems bent on chasing away any would-be Gillibrand challengers.  So far, the strategy has been successful.  At least until former Tennessee Congressman Harold Ford Jr. entered the picture.   But, what do New York Democratic voters think about all of this?  In the latest Marist Poll, Gillibrand has the early lead with 43% to 24% for Ford.  A full 33% are undecided.

Gillibrand is not particularly strong.  Her approval rating statewide lags at 24%.  She remains an unelected incumbent, picked by an unelected, unpopular governor.  Ford is largely unknown to New Yorkers and apparently doesn’t know New York too well either.  His comment that he has only seen the five New York City boroughs from a helicopter is the local equivalent of Sarah Palin’s claim to be able to see Russia from Alaska.

Both Gillibrand and Ford have a big strategic obstacle to overcome in order to run successfully statewide in New York.  Gillibrand no longer represents a conservative upstate New York congressional district.  Ford, a newcomer to New York, brings with him a voting record and campaign positions from Tennessee.  Both have a lot of work to do in convincing New York Democrats that their views are compatible with this more liberal electorate.  They both have a lot of ground to cover.  Yet to be defined as flip-floppers, each can legitimately be accused of tailoring their positions to the electorate they now face.   Had Darwin advanced a political theory of evolution, it would serve as a convenient reference for this 2010 senate race.

Miringoff discusses how the two relatively unknown candidates will try to win over New Yorkers: