11/20: Governor Cuomo…Take Two?

If New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo is seriously considering a bid for New York governor, there may be one less obstacle in his path.  According to published reports, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has decided he will not run for the office, removing Cuomo’s most formidable opponent on his way to the statehouse.  Cuomo has huge leads over fellow Democrat David Paterson for his party’s nomination and Rick Lazio, the only announced Republican candidate.

“Right now, Andrew Cuomo has a clear path to become governor,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Poll. “If he could fast-forward to next November, I’m sure he would.”

Click Here for Complete November 20, 2009 NYS Poll Release and Tables

For months, there has been speculation that Cuomo will challenge Governor David Paterson for the Democratic nomination.

Among Democrats statewide, 72% report they would support Cuomo if the Democratic primary were held today while just 21% say they would vote for Paterson. Little has changed since Marist last asked about a potential Paterson-Cuomo primary face-off in mid-September.

It’s not just the Democrats who want to oust Paterson.  Voters statewide also want a change.  63% of registered New York State voters do not want Paterson to run for governor.  Three in ten, on the other hand, would like to see him seek election.  When Marist last asked this question in its September 24th survey, 63% wanted Paterson to drop out, and 25% wanted him to remain in the contest.

And, although Governor Paterson has launched a media campaign to change his electoral prospects, the television ads have done little to alter the race.  Overall, a majority of voters statewide — 56% — say they’ve seen at least one television ad for Paterson.  But, viewing the ad does not change how voters feel about Paterson’s political future.  65% of voters who say they have watched a Paterson campaign ad say Paterson should not run for governor.  This proportion closely reflects the overall proportion of registered voters who, regardless of whether they have seen an ad or not, do not want the governor to be in the race.

Table: Democratic Primary — Paterson/Cuomo
Table: Should Paterson Run for Governor in 2010
Table: Seen Paterson Campaign Ad

Lazio Crushed by Cuomo…Competitive Against Paterson

Former U.S. Representative Rick Lazio has made no bones about the fact that he wants to be the Republican nominee for governor.  But, how does he stack up against his possible, Democratic opponents?  If Andrew Cuomo were the Democratic nominee and the election were held today, Cuomo would defeat Lazio by an almost three-to-one margin.  Cuomo receives 69% of voters’ support to Lazio’s 24%.  When Lazio is pitted against Governor David Paterson, the race is more competitive.  In fact, voters divide.  44% of the electorate would back Paterson, and 44% would cast their ballot for Lazio.  12% are undecided.  Little has changed in both of these hypothetical matchups since Marist last asked about about them in mid-September.

Table: Cuomo/Lazio 2010 Matchup
Table: Paterson/Lazio 2010 Matchup

Paterson and Cuomo: A Tale of Two Approval Ratings

When it comes to how voters view Paterson and Cuomo’s job performances, the two men fall on opposite ends of the spectrum.

66% of the state’s electorate thinks Cuomo is doing either an excellent or good job in office while just 6% say he is performing poorly.

Cuomo has consistently enjoyed kudos from New York’s electorate.  69% thought he was doing an above average job when Marist last tracked Cuomo’s approval rating in mid-September.  In Marist’s June survey, he received a similar proportion.

While Cuomo is the most popular statewide officeholder, Paterson is the most unpopular.  Just one-fifth of registered voters think Governor Paterson is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  More than one-third — 35% — report he is performing poorly.  When Marist last asked about Governor Paterson’s approval rating in its September 24th survey, the governor hit an all-time low with 17% giving the governor high marks.  44%, at that time, ranked Paterson’s performance as poor.

Table: Cuomo Approval Rating
Table: Paterson Approval Rating

Marist Poll Methodology

11/19: Giuliani Out of Race for Governor…Would Be Formidable Candidate for U.S. Senate

Published reports out today have squelched the long-standing rumors that former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani will run for governor of New York State.

But, what if Giuliani makes a bid for the U.S. Senate?  Giuliani leads U.S. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, the Democrat appointed by Governor David Paterson to fill the vacant seat left by Hillary Clinton.  54% of registered voters statewide would vote for Giuliani compared with 40% who would support Gillibrand.  Even one-third of Democrats report they would back the Republican challenger, and Giuliani runs competitively against Gillibrand in overwhelmingly Democratic New York City.

Click Here for Complete November 19, 2009 NYS Poll Release and Tables

Gaining the nomination for U.S. Senate does not appear to pose a problem either.  By nearly a three to one margin, Giuliani would be the Republicans’ pick when matched up against former New York State Governor George Pataki.  If the Republican primary were held today, he would receive 71% of the vote to Pataki’s 24%.

“It’s good news for Andrew Cuomo and Rick Lazio but potentially a huge problem for Kirsten Gillibrand,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist College Poll, “If Giuliani were to capture the U.S. Senate seat from heavily Democratic New York State, it would return him to the national spotlight big time.”

Table: 2010 Gillibrand/Giuliani Matchup
Table: 2010 Republican Primary for U.S. Senate

Opting Out of Gubernatorial Race…Good Decision?

Although Giuliani may have easily defeated Governor David Paterson, he would have faced stiff competition from New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo.  According to the latest Marist Poll, among registered voters, Giuliani receives 60% to Paterson’s 35%.  Support for Giuliani has been rock solid in this hypothetical matchup.  When Marist last stacked Giuliani up against Paterson, the candidates received similar proportions of the electorate.

However, when up against New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, a majority of voters – 53% — would back Democrat Cuomo to 43% for Giuliani.  These proportions are also unchanged from Marist’s September 16th survey.

Table: Paterson/Giuliani 2010 Matchup
Table: Cuomo/Giuliani

Rudy’s Exit Opens Door for Lazio

Giuliani’s decision has breathed new life into former U.S. Representative Rick Lazio’s campaign for the GOP nomination for governor.  Had Giuliani entered the contest, 84% of Republicans in New York State say they would have voted for him while only 13% report they would have cast their ballot for Lazio.  In Marist’s September 16th poll, similar proportions of the GOP thought this way.

Table: 2010 Republican Primary for Governor

Marist Poll Methodology

11/19: Carving Out a New Political Path?

The shock waves resulting from Rudy Giuliani’s decision not to run for governor in New York State in 2010 are most immediate in Albany but they are also being felt as far south as Washington, D.C.   Giuliani may have recognized that the road to the Executive Mansion could have been blocked by New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo.  Giuliani trails Cuomo by 10 percentage points in today’s Marist Poll.

But, what if this executive can-do former NYC mayor decides to join the legislative branch and make a run for U.S. Senate instead?  Here, his prospects are far brighter.  In a matchup against New York’s junior Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, Giuliani leads her by 54% to 40%.  A Senate win for Giuliani in this heavily Democratic state would be a huge national story.  It would also be an equally huge embarrassment for the Obama White House.  It could even rekindle any hopes Giuliani has about another presidential run.

Rudy Giuliani is a marquee name in GOP circles in New York.  But, if he harbors any presidential aspirations, he needs to win something.  His last electoral success was his re-election as NYC mayor in 1997… a lifetime ago in politics.  His on-again, off-again campaign in 2000 and his truncated run for the White House in 2008 raise serious doubts about his electoral viability.

Yet, this may turn out to be a stroke of political acumen for team Rudy. A decision by Giuliani to run for the U.S. Senate may ultimately shake things up nationally as much as his decision to pull out of the race for governor has altered the political landscape in Albany.

11/18: Voters Worried NYS Will Run Out of Money

Nearly seven in ten registered voters in New York State fear the Empire State’s coffers will soon be bare.  69% of voters report they are either very worried or worried that the state will run out of money in December.  This compares with 21% who are not very worried and 10% who are not worried at all.

Most voters think the budget shortfall is a major problem.  88% feel this way compared with 11% who believe it is a minor problem.  Just 1% of voters say it’s not an issue at all.

Complete November 18, 2009 NYS Poll Release and Tables

According to Marist Poll Director, Lee M. Miringoff, “Voters are paying attention to the budget problems in Albany and they’re not happy with what they’re seeing.”

Table: Concern About NYS Finances
Table: NYS Shortfall

Pointing the Finger…NYS Legislature to Blame, But Paterson Is Not in the Clear

With the state facing a $3 billion budget deficit, who do registered voters blame for not taking the lead to solve this problem?  70% point the finger at the state legislature while 21% are placing the blame on Governor David Paterson.

Does that mean that voters approve of how the governor is handling the budget?  No.  64% disapprove of how Paterson is dealing with the state’s budget while 28% approve.  The governor has failed to improve the public’s perception of him on this issue.  When Marist last asked about Governor Paterson’s handling of the state budget in September, similar proportions held these views.

And, when it comes to how he is managing the state’s economic crisis, here, too, 63% say they disapprove of the governor’s approach while 30% approve.  Similar proportions of voters reported they thought this way in September.

Table: Blame for Budget Deficit
Table: Paterson Handling of Budget
Table: Paterson Handling of Economic Crisis

Marist Poll Methodology

11/17: New Yorkers Divide Over Terror Trial Location

Eight years after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the Obama Administration has announced that five alleged attackers will be tried in federal court in the shadows of where the World Trade Towers once stood, New York City.

New Yorkers are speaking out about the venue for the trial, but there is a split decision on the matter.  45% of residents think it’s a good idea to have the trial in New York City while 41% believe it’s a bad one.  14% just aren’t sure.

Table: Terror Trial in NYC – Good or Bad Idea?
Click Here for Complete November 17th, 2009 NYC Poll Release and Tables

City Residents Weigh Security Risk of Terror Trial

What about the risk of future terrorist attacks?  Although 47% say the location of the trial will not affect the likelihood of another terrorist attack occurring in New York City, a significant proportion are concerned the trial will put a bull’s eye on the city.  In fact, 40% believe having the trial in New York City will increase the possibility of another terrorist attack in the area.  7% think it will be less of a target, and another 6% are unsure about the implications of the trial for the city’s security.

Most New York City residents — 67% — are confident law enforcement officials will be able to handle the potential security risks associated with such a high profile trial in Manhattan.  22% don’t have as much faith.  This is the proportion of residents who believe New York City is not well equipped to handle the situation.  11% are unsure.

When it comes to their personal safety, a majority — 52% — of New York City residents don’t think it will impact their own security.  34% think the trial will compromise their personal safety and put them in greater danger, and 8% report it will put them in less danger.  6% are unsure.

Table: NYC More of a Target?
Table: Confidence in NYC to Handle Security Risks
Table: Personal Safety

Marist Poll Methodology

11/16: Reality Bites… Majority of Americans Prefer Sitcoms

When it comes to their “tube time,” a majority of Americans prefer to pass on reality television and tune into sitcoms.

52% of residents report they like watching sitcoms rather than reality shows.  29%, on the other hand, like to get their fix of shows like Survivor, The Biggest Loser, and The Bachelor. 19% don’t like either genre.

Table: Reality TV vs. Sitcoms

Marist Poll Methodology

Related Story:

True Confessions of a Quasi-Reality TV Watcher

True Confessions of a Quasi-Reality TV Watcher

I have a confession.  I am a reality TV watcher.  And, believe it or not, that realization shocked me.  Let me explain.  When I sat down to write this blog, I had every intention to rail against the genre.  In fact, I identify with the 52% of Americans who The Marist Poll discovered prefer sitcoms to reality programs.

Let’s face it, how often do you quote a reality show?  (The exception, of course, is Trump’s, “You’re Fired.”)  Think back.  Where would we be without Ralph Kramden’s, “To the Moon, Alice,” Ricky Ricardo’s, “Lucy, you have some ’splainin’ to do,” the Fonz’s, “Ehhh,” and Jerry Seinfeld’s, “Yada, Yada, Yada.” These memorable lines became pop culture catch phrases and contributed to the creation of pop culture icons that still entertain audiences of all ages today.

I remember being devastated as a kid when some of my favorite shows (Growing Pains and Who’s the Boss?) went off the air.  As a teenager, I rarely missed a Friends episode for fear of missing the big moment when Ross and Rachel finally got together.  The truth is these sitcoms invited us into a fantasy world, often provided us with a valuable lesson, and allowed us couch potatoes to escape from reality for half an hour.

Reality television has been around for awhile, but to me, the early rumblings of the reality TV revolution occurred in the 1990’s with MTV’s The Real World.  But, it wasn’t until Survivor burst onto the scene nearly a decade later that the genre really took off, and with American Idol’s ratings leaving its competitors in the dust, it’s hard not to acknowledge the success of these types of shows.  But, where are the lasting, meaningful memories?  Where is the moral takeaway?

I guess these shows fulfill some voyeuristic need in our society, and perhaps, make us feel better about ourselves when we compare our actions to the plotting and debauchery featured in many of these shows.  (I do suppose, though, witnessing the fallout from a “character’s” drunken, embarrassing behavior can provide a few lessons, but how many of those scenes are actual lapses in judgment and not some planned, half-baked attempt at achieving b-level celebrity or launching one’s acting career?)

So, that was my rant.  Then, I began to examine my own viewing habits.  I LOVED the first season of Survivor and tuned into the early world of Big Brother.  I rushed home from work to catch American Idol’s first, second, and third seasons, and Dancing with the Stars remains a must-see for me.  But, as the hype grew around many of these shows, my interest waned.

That brings us to today.  Although I less frequently indulge in the bigger name reality shows (DWTS being the exception), I do watch some of the smaller ones.  Most of my preferences include shows on TLC, HGTV, and the History Channel.  Am I immune from the likes of Bridezillas?  No, but they are my exception rather than my rule.  So, I guess you could say that, when it comes to reality television, I prefer less drama-riddled broadcasts and ones from which I can actually learn something.  And, that’s an important distinction to make.

Reality television is hard to miss.  Production costs are far less than are those for sitcoms and dramas.  So, it’s doubtful these kinds of shows will disappear.  But, if you are as dissatisfied with some of the trash depicted in reality TV shows as I, and you long for the days of good old sitcoms, choose your reality TV consumption wisely.  Producers will get the message, and hopefully will raise the bar when producing reality programs.

11/13: Basketball Dribbles Off the Court

The NBA’s season is underway, but do Americans think the sport is a slam dunk?

Not really. In fact, 67% of residents ride the bench, saying they don’t watch the sport at all. 22% report they follow basketball a little, and just 11% follow the sport a great deal or good amount.

African American and Latino residents are more likely to catch a battle on the hardwood than are whites. 29% of African Americans and 27% of Latinos say they watch the NBA, at least, a good amount.  This compares with 6% of whites.

Table: Watch Basketball?

Marist Poll Methodology

11/13: Hockey Gets Checked into the Boards

Americans seem to be leaving hockey to their neighbors to the North.

Just 5% of U.S. residents watch professional hockey at least a good amount, and 14% say they catch a game occasionally.  81%, on the other hand, report not watching the sport at all.

Table: Watch Hockey?

Marist Poll Methodology

11/4: The Rap on Polls

What happened in the race for New York City mayor?!  Mayor Michael Bloomberg squeaked out a slim victory over Democratic challenger Bill Thompson last night despite the healthy lead given to Bloomberg by all the pre-election polls.  The short of it … the scenario is a textbook case of pre-election poll analysis.

It is not unusual in contests between a well-known incumbent (Bloomberg) and a relatively unknown challenger (Thompson) that the incumbent ends up getting pretty much the same number he was attracting in pre-election polls.  Undecided voters tend to find the challenger or not vote at all, having already rejected the incumbent.

In the closing weeks of the campaign, all public pre-election polls had Bloomberg in the low 50s, regardless of the margin over Thompson.  This is reminiscent of the outcome in 1994 when pre-election polls showed then three-term incumbent Mario Cuomo with a huge lead over relatively unknown challenger George Pataki in the New York State race for governor.  The bad news for Cuomo was that he was below 50% despite his big “lead.”

It is not surprising, therefore, that the 2009 race for mayor got closer in the end.   The Marist polls showed the trend that Democratic voters were “coming home” to Thompson.   These polls revealed growing support for Bill Thompson among Democrats (more than two-thirds of the New York City electorate) and African-American voters (about one-quarter of the electorate).  This trend continued through Marist’s final look at the electorate on Sunday and on election eve in a mixed, data collection mode research project.  Thankfully, the election of President Barack Obama last year put to rest the unsubstantiated but popular view that African-American candidates are undercounted in pre-election polls in black/white contests … the so-called, “Bradley Effect.”

Having said this, it was a rough night for incumbents, and change is still in the air.  Tuesday’s electorate was motivated by economic concerns and laid the blame on the doorstep of government executives.  From a three-term county executive in a local New York county to New Jersey’s Governor Corzine (even with the White House’s best efforts), voters rejected the status quo.  Bloomberg narrowly escaped.