10/30: Bloomberg Leads Thompson by 15 Points Among Likely Voters

The race for New York City mayor is in the homestretch, and if today were Election Day, Mayor Michael Bloomberg would handily win a third term.  Bloomberg currently leads Democratic challenger Bill Thompson — 53% to 38% — among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  Bloomberg’s lead among likely voters is consistent with the results of a Marist survey last week when Bloomberg received 52% to Thompson’s 36%.

Looking at political party, 45% of likely Democratic voters report they will back Bloomberg on Tuesday while 47% say they will support Thompson.  On the Republican side, 74% of likely GOP voters are behind Bloomberg compared with 17% for Thompson.  60% of non-enrolled voters back Bloomberg, and 27% say they will cast their ballot for Thompson.

Among registered voters citywide, Bloomberg leads Thompson, 48% to 37%, a difference of 11 percentage points.  Last week, Bloomberg garnered 47% of registered voters’ support while Thompson received 38%, a gap of 9 percentage points.

Table: 2009 Race for Mayor in New York City — Likely Voters Including Leaners
Table: 2009 Race for Mayor in New York City — Registered Voters
Click Here for Complete October 30, 2009 NYC Poll Release and Tables

Three-Quarters of Likely Voters Strongly Committed to Candidate

75% of likely voters citywide say they will not waver when it comes to their choice of candidate.  An additional 20% report, regardless of whom they are planning to support, they are somewhat committed to their pick, and just 4% say they might change their minds before Tuesday.

The proportion of likely voters who strongly back their choice of candidate has grown since Marist last asked voters about their intensity of support.  Last week, 65% said they will definitely not change their vote come Election Day.  At that time, 26% were somewhat behind their candidate, and 8% reported they might change their vote.

Both Bloomberg and Thompson currently enjoy firm backing from their respective supporters.  77% of Bloomberg’s supporters and 73% of Thompson’s backers say they are firmly committed to their candidate.  Last week, those proportions were 71% for Bloomberg and 57% for Thompson.

Table: Intensity of Support

A Tale of Two Candidates’ Favorability Ratings

Mayor Bloomberg’s favorability rating is on solid ground.  61% of registered voters say they have a positive view of the mayor while 32% of voters report they have an unflattering opinion of the mayor.  These proportions are little changed from Marist’s previous poll when 63% rated the mayor favorably and 33% had a negative perception of him.

Bill Thompson’s favorability ratings have also not changed significantly since last week.  44% of voters maintain a positive impression of the comptroller, and 31% hold him in a negative light.  25% say they are either unsure how to rate him or have never heard of him.  Last time, 47% viewed Thompson favorably, 33% held a negative impression of him, and 20% were unsure how to rate him.

Table: Bloomberg Favorability
Table: Thompson Favorability

Voters Care About Term Limits, But Does It Make a Difference?

Mayor Bloomberg’s action to extend term limits from two to three terms is not a deciding factor for 45% of voters.  Although a large proportion of voters — 43% — says it makes them less likely to vote for the mayor, this number has not grown through the course of the campaign.  9% report his action will make them more likely to vote for him.

Table: Term Limits and Bloomberg

Marist Poll Methodology

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10/30: Bloomberg’s Approval Rating at 54%

10/30: Bloomberg’s Approval Rating at 54%

A majority of New York City registered voters — 54% — think Mayor Michael Bloomberg is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  45%, on the other hand, say he is doing either a fair or poor job.  The mayor’s job approval rating has inched down for the first time since February.  When Marist asked about Bloomberg’s job performance last week, 58% gave him high marks.

Democrats are the difference in the mayor’s lower approval rating.  51% of Democrats now say he is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  In Marist’s previous survey, 60% of Democrats held this view.  Among New York City’s GOP, 69% of registered Republicans think Bloomberg is doing an above average job as mayor.  He received the same rating when Marist asked this question last week.  When it comes to non-enrolled voters citywide, 55% approve of Mayor Bloomberg’s job performance.  Last week, half of non-enrolled voters approved of his job performance.

Voters also believe the city is on the right path.  56% say the city is moving in the right direction while 34% report it’s travelling along the wrong course.  Similar proportions of the electorate held these views last week.

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating
Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating Trend
Table: NYC Direction

Click Here for Complete October 30, 2009 NYC Poll Release and Tables

Marist Poll Methodology

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10/30: Bloomberg Has 15 Percentage Point Lead Over Thompson Among Likely Voters

10/29: Texting While Driving: “Do As I Say, Not As I Do,” Say Younger Americans

There’s good news for public safety officials.  82% of Americans report they never text while driving.  9% say it’s seldom they text while they drive, and 5% admit to doing it sometimes. 4%, though, say they often text while behind the wheel.

Younger Americans are the culprits when it comes to this touchy practice.  About one in five residents under 30 admit to at least sometimes texting while driving.  Another 18% do so but not very often.  60% say they never text while they drive.  In contrast, less than 4% of Americans between 45 and 59 years old say they text while they drive at least sometimes, and just 2% of those 60 and older admit to doing the same.

There is little difference between the sexes on this question.  10% of men report they text while behind the wheel at least sometimes compared with 8% of women.

Should there be a law banning texting while driving?  90% of Americans say, “Yes.”  Even 88% of younger residents say the practice should be outlawed.  They are in agreement with their elders on this question.  92% of those residents believe texting while driving should be punishable by law.

Table: Texting While Driving
Table: Ban Texting While Driving?

Marist Poll Methodology

10/28: Pigskin Prognostications…No Clear Super Bowl Pick

Super Bowl Sunday may be months away, but that doesn’t mean football fans don’t have their fair share of early predictions.  But, is one team the runaway favorite?

13% of football fans think Brett Favre will lead the Minnesota Vikings to victory while 10% say Peyton Manning and the Colts will be the last team standing in February.  Younger brother, Eli Manning, and the Giants are the pick of 9% of football fans.  An additional 9% of armchair quarterbacks expect Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers to repeat.  8% think Tom Brady and the New England Patriots will reign supreme.

But, do Americans suffer from football fever?  There’s little question that about one-fifth do.  21% of the population report they follow professional football a great deal.  17% profess to watching professional football a good amount while 28% watch it a little.  34% report they don’t watch the sport at all.

Table: 2010 Super Bowl Picks
Table: Football Fans

Marist Poll Methodology

10/26: Thompson’s Last Best Chance?

Tomorrow night’s debate on WABC-TV between NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg and Democrat Bill Thompson represents the challenger’s best and probably last opportunity to close the gap in the race for mayor. I’m not sure Thompson’s chances are as dire as a Hail Mary pass but they are certainly no better than trying a 50 yard field goal into a strong wind.

The latest Marist Poll numbers put Bloomberg ahead of Thompson by 16% among likely voters.  The gap has widened since last month when Marist had the contest at 9% in Bloomberg’s favor. Although undecided voters typically gravitate to the challenger in these kinds of matchups, that doesn’t appear to be happening this time around.

Why?

Several  reasons. First, the Bloomberg campaign has been on the attack.  Although Bloomberg’s approval rating is nearly 60%, the mayor is garnering only in the neighborhood of the low fifties in the tossup.  The focus of the Bloomberg campaign is to make sure undecided voters don’t find the challenger in the closing days of the campaign.  So far so good for the mayor.  Not only has his lead widened but Thompson’s negatives have grown from 22% to 33% in a month.

The money factor also plays Bloomberg’s way.  No shock here, but this mayoral campaign is different from previous ones. There are fewer journalists providing less free media … something an underfinanced Thompson campaign needs. The premium has been on paid media and that favors Bloomberg and contributes to the problems Thompson has faced in getting any traction.

Third, the Thompson campaign has repeatedly relied on a single sheet in its playbook – namely, Bloomberg’s reversal on term limits.  New Yorkers aren’t happy with this change in the rules, but it alone is not a winning issue for Thompson.  Campaigns are about telling voters something they don’t already know.  Rick Lazio fell victim to a similar failed strategy in 2000 when he harped on Hillary Clinton’s carpetbagger status.  Thompson needs to get beyond this issue if he has any hopes of scoring an upset.

That brings us back to the candidates’ final debate. Mayor Bloomberg no doubt will continue his strategy of disengagement.  He certainly is not the most gifted debater to stand behind a podium and he has no need to mix it up with Thompson.  Instead, Bloomberg is likely to counterpunch when attacked and point to the future every chance he gets. Isn’t that what campaigns are about?

On Thompson’s side of the equation, he was surprisingly feisty during the NY1 debate but now needs to establish his rationale for running.  What will he do as mayor?  This is not Obama vs. McCain.  The currents of change are not strong enough to carry Thompson into office.

There are several other elements that are unique to NYC campaign ‘09.  Baseball has been in the air and has distracted voters from what has generally been a ho-hum contest.  79% of the city’s electorate, including 62% of Thompson backers, think Mayor Bloomberg is a shoo-in.

Issues concerning New Yorkers right now are more national and international in scope … the economy, the war, health care etc.  There hasn’t been a local issue to mobilize voters save the already discussed extension of term limits.

And, there is for campaign 2009 a letdown from this time last year when candidate Obama was moving New Yorkers to follow that campaign in unprecedented ways.  Turnout is likely to be low, and that may also play Bloomberg’s way with his GOTV effort ready to launch.

Finally, this is a somewhat charisma-challenged contest. New York City voters historically have rotated mayors between the bigger than life grandstand type to the image of a competent manager mayor.  From Broadway Bound John Lindsay to Comptroller Abe Beame to “How Am I Doing” Ed Koch to David Dinkins to Rudy Giuliani to Michael Bloomberg.  If history is any guide, the mayor to follow Bloomberg should be a slam dunk candidate.

Thompson has failed to demonstrate that capacity so far and must now do so.  We’ll be taking a final pre-election sample of New Yorkers following the debate to see if they are thinking any differently.

10/22: Bloomberg Leads Thompson By 16 Among Likely Voters

As Election Day nears, Mayor Michael Bloomberg has widened the gap between himself and his Democratic challenger Comptroller Bill Thompson to 16 percentage points in the race for New York City mayor.  Among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, Bloomberg has 52% to Thompson’s 36%.  Last month, Bloomberg led Thompson among this group of voters by 9 percentage points — 52% to 43%, respectively.  Although Bloomberg’s support is unchanged, Thompson has lost ground.

Support among likely Democratic voters has shifted in Bloomberg’s direction.  Nearly half of Democrats — 47% — are planning to cast their ballot for Bloomberg while 39% are backing Thompson.  Last month in a Marist survey conducted during the week of the Democratic primary, 51% supported Thompson, and 43% were behind Bloomberg.  Among Republicans, 82% of likely GOP voters including leaners now support Bloomberg while 14% are behind Thompson.  This is relatively unchanged since last month.

But, likely non-enrolled voters have moved toward Thompson.  48% would prefer to see Thompson in City Hall while 41% of these voters back Bloomberg.  This is a big shift since last month when 65% said they supported Bloomberg, and 31% were behind Thompson.

Looking at race, Bloomberg has the support of nearly seven in ten white likely voters compared with 27% for Thompson.  Among African American voters, 62% say they plan to vote for Thompson while 22% report they are going to cast their ballot for Bloomberg.  When it comes to Latino likely voters, the mayor receives support from 42% while Thompson garners 35%.

Among registered voters citywide, Bloomberg’s lead is 9 percentage points.  He nets 47% of the electorate’s support to Thompson’s 38%.  When Marist last asked voters about the mayor’s race in New York City in September, Bloomberg received 50% of registered voters’ support compared with 39% for Thompson.

Table: 2009 Race for Mayor in NYC — Likely Voters Including Leaners
Table: 2009 Race for Mayor in NYC — Registered Voters

Click Here for Complete October 22, 2009 NYC Poll Release and Tables

Majorities Shower Candidates with Strong Support…Bloomberg Voters More Committed

What are the odds voters will change their minds before Election Day?  For 65% of the city’s electorate that plans to show up on Election Day, the answer is, slim.  This is the proportion of likely voters who, regardless of whom they support, say they strongly back their choice of candidate.  26% are somewhat behind their pick, and just 8% of likely voters report they could change their minds before casting their ballot.

71% of Bloomberg supporters are solidly in his camp while 57% of Thompson backers are strongly committed to their candidate.

When it comes to selecting a candidate, 71% of likely voters in New York City say they are backing their pick, because they are for that candidate while about one in four report they are against his opponent.  But, Bloomberg and Thompson supporters differ about why they are choosing to back their candidate.  88% of Bloomberg’s supporters are for Bloomberg, and 10% are against Thompson.  A slim majority of Thompson’s supporters, though, aren’t necessarily voting for him.  51% plan to cast their ballot for Thompson, because they oppose Bloomberg.  43% say they support Thompson, because they are for him.

Table: Intensity of Support
Table: Voting for Candidate or Against Opponent?

Most Think Bloomberg Will Win…Majority of Thompson Backers Predict Mike

All in all, do voters think their ballots really matter?  79% of registered voters, regardless of whom they plan to support, think Mayor Bloomberg will be re-elected.  Even 62% of Thompson supporters believe Bloomberg is a shoo-in.  Similar proportions of both the overall electorate and voters for Thompson shared this view last month.

Table: Will Bloomberg Be Re-Elected?

Thompson’s Unfavorable Rating Up…Bloomberg Remains Steady

The good news for Thompson is more voters know who he is.  The bad news is more people have a negative impression of him.  Currently, 47% of voters citywide think favorably of Comptroller Thompson.  This is comparable to the favorability rating he received in Marist’s September survey.

However, there has been a change in Thompson’s unfavorable rating.  Currently, 33% of voters citywide have a negative view of the comptroller while 20% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In September, 22% did not think highly of him, and 29% were unsure how to rate him.

On the flip side, Mayor Bloomberg’s favorability ratings are steady.  63% of voters have a positive view of the mayor while 33% have a negative impression of him.  Those proportions are relatively unchanged from last month.

Table: Thompson Favorability
Table: Bloomberg Favorability

Money Makes No Difference, but Term Limits Do

The amount of money Mayor Bloomberg is spending on his re-election campaign doesn’t matter to New York City voters.  72% report the funds will not impact their vote.  20% say the mayor’s spending will make them less likely to vote for Bloomberg, and 8% are more likely to vote for him because of it.  These numbers are consistent with Marist’s September findings.

However, the mayor’s decision to extend term limits from two to three terms does impact voters’ preferences.  42% say they are less likely to vote for the mayor because of his move to extend term limits compared with only 8% who are more likely to cast their ballot for Bloomberg because of it.  49% say the decision makes no difference to them.  There is a silver lining, though, for the mayor.  Dislike of the mayor’s action has not grown during the past eight months.  When Marist last asked this question in February, 44% said his move would make them less likely to vote for the mayor, and 12% reported it would make them more likely to vote for him.  44% revealed his decision made no difference to them.

Table: Bloomberg Campaign Finance
Table: Term Limits and Bloomberg

Marist Poll Methodology

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10/22: Bloomberg Approval Rating at 58%

10/22: Bloomberg Approval Rating at 58%

A majority of registered voters in New York City — 58% — think Mayor Michael Bloomberg is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  41% rate him as below average.  Bloomberg received a similar rating — 59% — when Marist last asked about the mayor’s job performance in September.

Both Republicans and Democrats give the mayor high marks.  69% of New York City’s GOP say the mayor is doing an above average job as mayor.  60% of Democrats agree.  Similar proportions within the two parties thought this way last month.

However, the mayor has continued to slide among non-enrolled voters.  Currently, 50% believe the mayor is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  In September, that proportion was at 56%.  Two months prior to that, 65% of non-enrolled voters thought Bloomberg was doing an above average job in office.

Voters also believe the overall direction of the city is on track.  58% report the Big Apple is headed in the right direction while 33% think it needs to be redirected.  These findings have slightly improved since Marist last gauged this question in September.  At that time, 54% of the electorate described the city as being on the right course, and 38% saw it heading down the wrong road.

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating
Table: NYC Direction

Click Here for Complete October 22, 2009 NYC Poll Release and Tables

Marist Poll Methodology

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10/22: Bloomberg Leads Thompson By 16 Percentage Points Among Likely Voters

10/20: More Americans Concerned About H1N1…Parents Worried

Flu season is upon us, and there is growing concern among Americans about contracting the H1N1 virus also known as “swine flu.”  51% of Americans report they are concerned that someone in their household will get the illness including 14% who are very concerned.  32% of residents are not very concerned about coming down with the virus, and an additional 17% are not concerned at all.

The proportion of Americans who are concerned has increased since Marist’s swine flu poll in early September.  At that time, 36% had some degree of worry about becoming infected with swine flu including 11% who were very concerned.  35% and 29%, respectively, reported that they were either not very concerned or not concerned at all.

Region, race, and parental guardianship all play a role here.  Looking at region, residents living in the South are more concerned about contracting the H1N1 virus than are those in other parts of the country.

And, as in the Marist Poll’s September survey, there is a racial divide on this issue.  African American residents are the most worried about the illness.  63% report they are concerned they or a family member will become sick.  These proportions have grown since September.  Early last month, 49% of this group reported they were concerned.  Worry among whites has also grown.  47% say they are concerned compared with 30% in Marist’s prior survey.  Looking at Latinos, 54% are, at least, fearful about the virus.  In September, 57% of Latinos expressed concern.

56% of parents nationwide are worried about a member of their family coming down with the virus including about one in five who are very concerned.  Households without children are slightly less concerned.  Here, 48% of non-parents are either very worried or worried.  Concern among both groups has grown since Marist last asked this question.

Worry may have increased, because more Americans say they, personally, know someone who has contracted the illness. Although 75% are not acquainted with a person who has had swine flu, 25% say they are.  This proportion has grown since last month when only 10% said they personally knew someone who became sick from the H1N1 virus.  With the exception of those in the Northeast, there has been a spike in the proportions of residents who report knowing a person who has suffered from swine flu with the greatest jump occurring in the South.

Once again, parental guardianship makes a difference.  About one-third of parents — 34% — say they know someone who has had the H1N1 virus.  This compares with 20% of those without children.  In September, 12% of parents and 8% of non-parents reported being an acquaintance of a swine flu sufferer.

Age also impacts this question.  More younger Americans than older ones say they know someone who suffered from the H1N1 virus.

Table: Concern About Contracting H1N1
Table: Know Someone with H1N1

Majority Would Receive Vaccine

If presented with the choice to receive the vaccine against the H1N1 virus, 52% of residents would take it.  42% would not, and 6% are unsure.

Although majorities of Americans living in the Northeast, South, and West would be vaccinated, those in the Midwest divide.  44% would opt for getting the shot while 48% would not.  Looking at race, a considerable proportion of Latinos — 66% — would opt to be vaccinated.  This compares with 49% of whites and 46% of African Americans.

Age, though, is not a factor.  53% of those under age 45 and 51% of those 45 or older wish to be vaccinated.

Table: Choose to be Vaccinated Against H1N1?

Marist Poll Methodology

10/15: It’s Up To You, New York…Yankees Viewed as World Series’ Favorite

They’ve steamrolled the Minnesota Twins and are getting ready to battle the Los Angeles Angels in the ALCS.  Now, more than four in ten baseball fans nationwide think the New York Yankees will go all the way and clinch their 27th World Championship.

41% of baseball fans report the Bronx Bombers have the best chance of winning the World Series this year.  The Philadelphia Phillies come in a distant second with 10% of fans thinking they will repeat.  Joe Torre’s Los Angeles Dodgers are the pick of 8%, and Mike Scioscia’s Los Angeles Angels are regarded the likely winners by 5%.  Nearly a quarter of baseball fans — 24% — chose a team who has already been eliminated from the playoffs.

How big of a deal is baseball, though, to U.S. residents?  Just 18% of Americans indulge in the National Pastime at least a good amount.  32% say they watch the game a little, and half do not watch the game at all.  Not surprisingly, men tend to check out the game more than women.

Table: World Series Champions?
Table: Watch Baseball?

Marist Poll Methodology

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10/9: Baseball’s Bond

10/15: President Loses Support in Handling of War in Afghanistan

Registered voters nationwide divide about President Barack Obama’s management of the war in Afghanistan.  43% approve, and 45% disapprove.  12% are unsure.  The electorate’s confidence in the president’s handling of this issue has been shaken.  When Marist last asked this question in June, nearly six in ten — 57% — backed the president on this question.  Just 24% disapproved.

The change in opinion has occurred across party lines.  Currently, 62% of Democrats agree with how the president is dealing with this issue.  This proportion is down from 75% in June.  24% of Republicans approve of the president’s actions in Afghanistan.  Back in June, the GOP was much more divided with 41% reporting they approved of Mr. Obama’s management.  And, Independents have also had a change of heart.  51% of these voters currently disapprove of the president’s handling of the military situation in Afghanistan.  An almost identical proportion of Independents — 52% — approved of the president’s tactics four months ago.

Table: Handling the War in Afghanistan

About Four in Ten Voters Want Troop Levels in Afghanistan Increased

41% of registered voters think U.S. troop levels in Afghanistan should be increased.  32% want that number to be decreased, and 19% think it should remain the same.  8% are unsure.

How does opinion fall along party lines?  A majority of Republicans — 57% — would like more troops in the region while 22% want those numbers to be reduced.  16% believe the levels should stay where they are.  Democrats are a different story.  41% want the number of troops decreased while 24% would like to see additional recruits deployed.  The same proportion of Democrats — 24% — wants the level of U.S. troop commitment to remain the same.  Where do Independents stand?  47% want the number of troops increased, and 31% would like them decreased.  15% say they should be kept at current levels.

Table: Troop Levels in Afghanistan

Marist Poll Methodology

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