9/24: NY Voters to Obama, “Mind Your Business”

The White House is urging Governor David Paterson not to run for office next year, but what do New York State voters think?  62% say the Obama Administration is wrong to suggest the governor should not run while 27% think Washington is well within its rights to get involved.  11% are unsure.   Even a majority — 51% — of Democrats believes the Administration is meddling.  77% of Republicans and 64% of non-enrolled voters agree.

Click Here for the Complete September 24, 2009 NYS Poll Release and Tables

Do voters change their minds if presented with the possibility that Paterson’s candidacy could have a negative impact on other Democrats running for office in New York State?  The electorate does not waiver.  60% of registered voters say the White House should not have suggested that Paterson give up his gubernatorial aspirations even if this is the case.  30% of voters, on the other hand, believe this would be a reason for the Obama Administration to speak out.

Not surprisingly, Democrats are more worried about Paterson’s impact on the 2010 Democratic ticket than are Republicans.  Still, only 42% of Democrats agree with the White House based on this rationale, and 48% report the White House was incorrect in urging Paterson not to run.  Looking across the aisle, 75% of Republicans overwhelmingly believe the Obama Administration overstepped its bounds while 18% think the move was a right one.  Non-enrolled voters are more in line with Republicans on this issue.  Regardless of the potential impact Paterson’s run may have on other Democratic candidates, 68% report the White House’s action was wrong while 21% think it was right.

Few New York State voters are surprised by the White House’s interest in next year’s New York State elections.  Just 25% are surprised while 73% are not.

Table: White House Involvement Right or Wrong?
Table: Involvement Justified when Other Democratic Candidates Considered?
Table: Surprised by White House’s Interest?

Paterson: Democratic Liability?…63% Don’t Want Him to Run

Voters divide over whether having Governor Paterson on the ticket in 2010 will hurt other Democratic candidates.  43% agree he will while 41% disagree.  16% are unsure.  48% of Democrats believe Paterson will be detrimental to other candidates while 36% disagree.  Republicans move toward the other end of the spectrum with 47% reporting Paterson will not harm other Democratic politicians’ electoral aspirations and 39% saying he will.  Non-enrolled voters divide.  43% do not think that Paterson is a drain on the ticket.  39%, however, think he will damage the Democrats’ hopefuls in other races.

There is greater consensus, however, on the question of whether voters want Paterson to run.  More than six in ten voters — 63% — do not want Paterson to continue his gubernatorial quest.  Just 25% would like to see Paterson make a bid.  When Marist asked this question last week, 70% of registered voters thought Paterson should get out of the race while 27% thought he should run.

Democrats and Republicans agree on this question.  Nearly two-thirds within each party, including 65% of Democrats, do not think Paterson should run for governor next year.

Table: Paterson a Liability to Other Democrats?
Table: Should Paterson Run for Governor in 2010?

Paterson’s Approval Rating at New Low

It is obvious this has been a bad political week for Governor Paterson: the White House came out against his gubernatorial campaign and the president, himself, praised the biggest threat to Paterson receiving the Democratic nomination for governor – New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo. And, the news for Paterson is about to get even worse.  His approval rating is at an all time low.  Currently, 17% of voters in New York State report he is doing either an excellent or good job in office while a whopping 44% say he is performing poorly.  When Marist last asked this question earlier this month, Paterson’s rating was at 20%.  The governor’s approval rating isn’t the only one that has dropped.  President Obama has slipped in the eyes of New York State voters but holds onto a slim majority of the electorate in this otherwise blue state.

Table: Paterson Approval Rating

Marist Poll Methodology

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9/24: Obama Holds Onto Slim Majority in NYS…Approval Rating Slips

9/24: Giuliani with Majority Against Gillibrand…Pataki with Edge in Gillibrand Matchup

The Marist Poll’s Lee Miringoff discusses Obama and Paterson’s poll numbers following their flare-up over the New York gubernatorial race:

Miringoff appears on CBS Evening News to discuss the pressure on Paterson to quit:

Watch CBS News Videos Online

9/24: Obama Holds Onto Slim Majority in NYS…Approval Rating Slips

The flare-up between the White House and Albany is not doing President Barack Obama any good either.  52% of New York State registered voters say President Obama is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  46% report he is doing a subpar job.

The president’s approval rating has dipped 5 percentage points since Marist last asked this question earlier this month.  At that time, 57% thought the president was doing an above average job, and 43% said Mr. Obama was doing either a fair or poor job in office.  The president’s approval rating has been declining among New York State’s voters since March when he received a positive rating of 68%.

Click Here for the Complete September 24, 2009 NYS Poll Release and Tables

There has been little change in the proportion of Democrats and Republicans who approve of the president’s job performance since Marist last asked this question.  However, there has been a drop among non-enrolled voters in the state.  Currently, 42% of these voters report Obama is performing well in office.  53% held this view last week.

Table: Obama Approval Rating

Marist Poll Methodology

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9/24: NY Voters to Obama, “Mind Your Business”

9/24: Giuliani with Majority Against Gillibrand…Pataki with Edge in Gillibrand Matchup

9/24: Giuliani with Majority Against Gillibrand…Pataki with Edge in Gillibrand Matchup

If the Obama Administration is concerned about the 2010 elections in New York State, perhaps, there is good reason.  In a Marist Poll earlier this month, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand’s approval rating was 26% with more than a quarter of registered voters unsure how to rate her.  When she is currently pitted against former Republican New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani in a hypothetical matchup for U.S. Senate, Gillibrand has some ground to gain.  If the election were held today, Giuliani would win a slim majority of the electorate — 51% — to Gillibrand’s 40%.

Click Here for the Complete September 24, 2009 NYS Poll Release and Tables

While support does divide along party lines, nearly three in ten Democrats say they would support Republican challenger Giuliani.  Currently, 62% of Democrats would back Gillibrand while 29% would support Giuliani.  On the Republican side, 80% are behind Giuliani compared with 13% for Gillibrand.  By a two-to-one margin, non-enrolled voters support Giuliani, 60% to Gillibrand’s 30%.

The picture for Gillibrand is somewhat, although not much, better when she faces off against former New York State Governor George Pataki.  Pataki edges Gillibrand 45% to 41% among registered voters in New York State.  In a Marist Poll earlier in September, Pataki received 48% of the electorate to Gillibrand’s 44%.

The parties break in support of their respective candidates.  Among non-enrolled voters, Pataki is leading Gillibrand, but a notable proportion is undecided.  48% of these voters say they would support Pataki if the race were held today while 32% would back Gillibrand.  20% are unsure.

Table: 2010 Gillibrand/Giuliani Matchup
Table: 2010 Gillibrand/Pataki Matchup

Marist Poll Methodology

Related Stories:

9/24:  NY Voters to Obama, “Mind Your Business”

9/24: Obama Holds Onto Slim Majority in NYS…Approval Rating Slips

9/21: Mr. Obama Goes to New York…Squelches Mr. Paterson’s Chances?

With an approval rating still scraping bottom at 20% and with only 27% of New York State voters even wanting Governor David Paterson to seek election in 2010, it’s little wonder the White House is getting itchy.  Why is Washington so worried about the bluest of the blue states?

It’s not just the governorship that’s at stake.  It’s also about what could happen down ballot if Paterson is heading the ticket.  Paterson’s pick to replace Hilary Clinton in the U.S. Senate, Kirsten Gillibrand, also has very shaky numbers.  In fact, her 26% approval rating statewide is nothing to write home about.  She trails former Governor  George Pataki by 48% to 44% in an hypothetical pairing, and there’s always the possibility of Rudy Giuliani re-trying his 2000 Senate campaign.  More on that shortly.  Losing a Democratic U.S. Senate seat from New York would be nothing short of a disaster for the Obama Administration in next fall’s mid-term election.

The only thing not surprising in all this White House political pressure is that team Obama has already cleared the path for Gillibrand so that she can win her party’s nomination sans a primary fight.  Is this step two in their efforts to keep New York’s U.S. Senate seats in Democratic hands?

Of course, the immediate impact of the White House pulling the rug out from under Paterson is, I’m sure, not lost on any future occupants of the capital’s second floor in Albany.  That’s where the Crown Prince of New York politics Andrew Cuomo no doubt has set his sights.  Attorney General Cuomo is waiting in the gubernatorial wings holding the highest approval rating of any state official.  He cleans Paterson’s clock in a Democratic primary matchup and the White House has just provided Cuomo with all the political cover he could ever need to challenge fellow Democrat Paterson should Paterson decide to run.  Cuomo also bests Rudy Giuliani by 10% points should that be the eventual pairing.

What will Rudy do?  There are three schools of thought.  He can run for governor, but the odds just increased that heavyweight Andrew Cuomo will be his opponent.  He could challenge Gillibrand who seems more vulnerable.  Or, he could drop out of school altogether when it comes to campaign politics.  After all, his recent foray into the electoral college wasn’t particularly rewarding.  Rudy remains the marquee name in New York GOP circles but he hasn’t won anything in a very long time (1997).  He needs to make his intentions known soon if he really wants to get back into the political swing of things.

9/21: Bloomberg Leads Thompson 50% to 39%

The candidates are now in place for November’s race for mayor in New York City, and early numbers show the incumbent, Mayor Michael Bloomberg, with 50% of registered voters compared with 39% for his Democratic challenger, New York City Comptroller Bill Thompson.  10% say they are unsure.  In Marist’s July survey, 48% reported they backed Bloomberg, 35% supported Thompson, and 17% were unsure.

When looking at those all-important likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, Bloomberg has 52% to Thompson’s 43%.

How does the race shape up along party lines?  Registered Republicans are overwhelmingly on Bloomberg’s side.  80% are backing Bloomberg compared with 17% for Thompson.  Democrats, on the other hand, divide with 43% supporting Bloomberg and 46% behind Thompson.  A majority of non-enrolled voters say Bloomberg is their man compared with one-third who want Thompson to take over the reins as mayor.

Looking at race, Thompson receives the support of 52% of African American voters compared with 37% for Bloomberg.  Bloomberg garners the support of six in ten white voters, and Thompson receives the backing of 29%.  Latino members of the electorate divide with 48% supporting Bloomberg and 43% in favor of Thompson.

Table: 2009 Race for Mayor in NYC — Registered Voters
Table: 2009 Race for Mayor in NYC — Likely Voters Including Leaners

Click Here for Complete September 21, 2009 NYC Poll Release and Tables

Majority of Voters Strongly Support a Candidate…Most Predict Bloomberg Winner

A majority of registered voters in New York City say they strongly back their choice of candidate.  52% report this to be the case while 30% are just somewhat behind their pick.  17% might cast their ballot differently come Election Day.

Slightly more registered voters who say they support Bloomberg are firmly entrenched in his camp compared with those who report backing Thompson.  54% of those who favor Bloomberg are firmly committed to their candidate while 49% of Thompson’s supporters vow not to waver.

So, why are voters backing a specific candidate?  63% of registered voters report they like their candidate while 32% say they’re backing a candidate, because they dislike his competitor.  The latter is the case for a majority of Thompson supporters — 58% — while only 12% of Bloomberg’s backers report they are voting for Bloomberg, because they are against Thompson.

And, Thompson certainly needs to prove to the electorate that he has a fighting chance to beat Mayor Bloomberg.  Right now, 78% of registered voters in the city, regardless of whom they are planning to support, say they think Bloomberg will win a third term.  This is an increase in the proportion of registered voters who thought this way in Marist’s July survey. Currently, even 62% of voters who support Bill Thompson share this view.

Table: Intensity of Support
Table: Voting For Candidate or Against Opponent?
Table: Will Bloomberg Be Re-elected?

Campaign Sparks Voters’ Interest?

Although a majority within the electorate is tossing hefty support behind a candidate, just how engaged are voters in the race for mayor?  51% of registered voters describe the contest as boring, and 44% believe it to be interesting.  Not surprisingly, interest increases among likely voters.

However, 53% of the overall electorate is keeping a close eye on the election.  This includes 12% who report they are following the campaign very closely and 41% who are closely following it.  36% are not tracking the race much, and 11% admit to not being engaged in it at all.

Table: Mayoral Race Boring or Interesting?
Table: Closely Following Campaign

Thompson Who? Unknown to 29%…About Six in Ten View Bloomberg Favorably

62% of New York City voters have a favorable impression of Mayor Bloomberg compared with 49% who view Thompson this way.

But, Thompson does not have as unfavorable an image as the mayor.  Just 22% have a negative impression of Thompson compared with 32% for Bloomberg.  And, fewer voters have yet to pass judgment on the comptroller.  29% of the electorate doesn’t know what to make of him while just 6% say the same about Bloomberg.

Table: Bloomberg Favorability
Table: Thompson Favorability

Unconcerned About Bloomberg’s Spending

How do voters react to Mayor Bloomberg’s personal campaign spending?  73% of registered voters say the amount of money Mayor Bloomberg is shelling out will not impact their vote.  21% think it will make them less likely to vote for him compared with just 6% who report they are more likely to do so.  In Marist’s July survey, 65% said Bloomberg’s money would make no difference.

Table: Bloomberg Campaign Finance

Setting Priorities: Jobs and Education Top List

Voters may not know who will be the city’s next mayor, but they do know the issues that should be at the top of his agenda.  25% think jobs should be the next mayor’s priority, and 20% believe it should be education.  With 17%, economic development comes in third.  Housing follows with 9%, and security from terrorism and taxes round out the top five with 6%

Table: Mayor’s Priority

Marist Poll Methodology

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9/21: Bloomberg Approval Rating Steady

9/21: An Interview: The 2009 Mayor’s Race

Click Here for Exclusive NY Daily News/Marist Poll Numbers

The Marist Poll’s Lee Miringoff says Bloomberg could face a competitive race, if his opponent plays his cards right:

9/21: Bloomberg Approval Rating Steady

As Mayor Michael Bloomberg digs in to square off against New York City Comptroller Bill Thompson in the race for New York City mayor, how do voters think Michael Bloomberg is doing in office?  59% of registered voters citywide report Bloomberg is doing either an excellent or good job as mayor.  Just 11% report he is doing poorly.  This is similar to the job approval rating — 58% — Mr. Bloomberg received in July.

Bloomberg’s positive rating crosses party lines.  However, there has been some movement since Marist last asked this question.  69% of Republicans currently give the mayor high marks compared with 62% two months ago.  While his rating has improved among this group, it has dipped among non-enrolled voters with 56% approving of Bloomberg’s performance now and 65% saying the same in July.  As for Democrats, 59% currently look well on the mayor’s job.  56% thought so when last asked.

Overall, does the electorate think the city is headed in the right direction?  54% of registered voters say, “Yes,” while 38% disagree.  These proportions are little changed since Marist last asked this question in July.

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating
Table: NYC Direction

Click Here for Complete September 21, 2009 Poll Release and Tables

At Issue: Bloomberg’s Strengths and Weaknesses

Where do voters think Mayor Bloomberg excels, and where do they believe he needs improvement?  The electorate in the Big Apple says he’s done the best on education and economic development.  26% and 23%, respectively, believe this to be true.  With 14%, crime comes in a distant third, and security against terrorism follows closely behind with 11%.  17% believe the mayor has done the best on other issues.

As for where Bloomberg needs some work, there is little consensus among the electorate.  15% believe the mayor has done the worst on housing.  14% say transportation is his Achilles’ heel, and similar proportions sound off about taxes — 13%, poverty — 12%, and education — 12%.  26% cite other issues as his weakest.

Table: Bloomberg’s Best Issue
Table: Bloomberg’s Worst Issue

Marist Poll Methodology

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9/21: Bloomberg Leads Thompson 50% to 39%

9/21: An Interview: The 2009 Mayor’s Race

Click Here for Exclusive NY Daily News/Marist Poll Numbers

9/21: An Interview: The 2009 Mayor’s Race

Jay DeDapper is a veteran television political reporter who has covered New York politics for more than a decade.  In an interview with the Marist Poll’s John Sparks, DeDapper considers the matchup between New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg and Democratic challenger Bill Thompson, and he discusses the impact of the $36 million the mayor has spent on his re-election campaign.

Listen to the Interview, Part 1:

John Sparks
Jay, back in July, 51% of registered voters in New York City told The Marist Poll it was time to oust Mayor Michael Bloomberg from office and elect someone else.  Now in that same poll, Bloomberg led Bill Thompson 48% to 35%.  Do you sense that, as we get closer to the general election, that the Mayor’s pulling away and widening his lead?

Jay DeDapper
I think there’s a limit to how much of a lead that he can get, even though he’s not a Republican, a registered Republican anymore.  He’s not registered in any party.  He’s created his own party to run, and he’s running on the independent line.  I think that in a city that this is overwhelmingly Democratic, there is a limit to how many votes anybody can get that’s not on the Democratic line.  That being said, he is widely seen, and the Marist Poll has shown this, previous Marist Polls have shown this, he’s widely seen to be politically independent and not really a Democrat or a Republican, and I think that appeals to a lot of people.  So, I think his wide lead that he has now, and it is sizeable, I don’t think it’s going to grow much more. I think that there is a limit to how wide a lead that he can get in this race.

John Sparks
Now you mentioned he’s an independent.  He’s also independently wealthy. He spent a reported $36 million on getting re-elected.  Is it the money that makes this an insurmountable race for Bill Thompson?

Jay DeDapper
Well, money is always important and he spent — Mike Bloomberg spent $70 some odd million for the first time around.  He spent $80 some odd million last time. There’s been talk that he’d spend $100 million by the time all the final checks are cut in this election, and that’s a huge disadvantage for Bill Thompson.  Bill Thompson is participating in the public finance system in New York City, which is pretty progressive.  It’s one of the most advanced in the country, but it doesn’t account for people who spend all of their own money, and there’s kind of no way to account for that under the law right now.  So, it’s a huge disadvantage for Bill Thompson. But, to say that it’s only money, I think misses a point, and that is that there have been lots of candidates with a lot of money that have lost races. In fact, until Mike Bloomberg came along, the rule was you could spend — that super rich people could spend all the money they wanted and didn’t have a very good chance of winning election, all other things being equal.  All other things are not equal in this case.  Bill Thompson has not been an aggressive, an assertive candidate.  He has had fewer public events, campaign events, than Mike Bloomberg, and if you’re the guy who is the underdog in the money race, then you’ve got to out-hustle the guy who’s got all the money. Bill Thompson isn’t out-hustling anybody right now.

John Sparks
So, what would it take for Thompson to win in November?

Listen to Part 2:

Jay DeDapper
He would have to become a different candidate.  New York … I think New Yorkers, and you look back at the mayor’s races and the mayors that have been elected in the past, New York has a long history of electing characters.  There’s, of course, Fiorello La Guardia. There was Ed Koch.  There was Rudy Giuliani. Lindsay was in his own way a character.  And, in between these characters, there have often been kind of quiet technocratic kind of people.  Abe Beame was one.  You could argue that Dave Dinkins was.  He certainly wasn’t much of a character.  He was historic, but he wasn’t much of a character.  Mike Bloomberg has turned into a character.   As much as he was kind of a colorless billionaire when he first ran, he’s turned into a bit of a character, a little bit a hottie [sic].  The Marist Poll has shown over the years that people don’t really like his attitude.  They don’t think he relates to them or that he understands their concerns, but at the end of the day, he’s got a character, and they think he does a pretty good job.  Bill Thompson is not a character. He is as colorless as you can get, and he hasn’t demonstrated any knack for becoming a character in people’s minds.  In the very short period between now and election day, Bill Thompson would have to become a different person. That maybe is something he can do.  Candidates have done that in the past, but he’d have to become a different person.

John Sparks
I was going to follow-up and ask–does he really have enough time to accomplish that?

Jay DeDapper
I think maybe the way I’d like to answer that is: Could a candidate in this amount of time accomplish what has to be accomplished?  And, I think in the hypothetical, yes.  Bill Thompson is going to have to go from zero to 60 tomorrow to be able to pull this off.

John Sparks
I’m curious about something else.  Is Governor Paterson hurting Bill Thompson’s chances to be elected?

Listen to Part 3:

Jay DeDapper
I don’t think there’s any evidence of that.  Paterson has plenty of his own problems, and that’s a whole other story.  He’s gotten tremendously high negatives and a real, real problem with trying to get re-elected next year.  But, I don’t think there’s any link in voters’ minds between Bill Thompson and David Paterson. They haven’t appeared together.  They aren’t particularly close.  Certainly, David Paterson’s not going to come and campaign for Bill Thompson, because Bill Thompson probably doesn’t want David Paterson to come and campaign for him.  So, I don’t think that’s his problem.  I mean Bill Thompson is not tainted by the leading Democrat in the state having low poll numbers.  Bill Thompson is tainted by the fact that he simply is not running a campaign so far that has energy, ideas, attitude, assertiveness, aggressiveness, fire in the belly.  There’s no fire in the belly.

John Sparks
Hindsight’s 20/20.  Did Anthony Weiner make a mistake by dropping out?

Jay DeDapper
That’s a hard question.  I mean, I think most people, most political analysts, myself included, believe that Anthony Weiner had a much better shot at winning — at beating Mike Bloomberg than Bill Thompson did.  But, could he have beaten him?  I don’t know, and Anthony Weiner in a purely political calculation, I think, looked at the map and said, “Look, I can run again in four years, and I will have been out there in two different cycles.  I will have a lot of name recognition.  I will be able to continue to raise issues and get free media and talk, and Mike Bloomberg won’t be running again in four years, and I won’t have to face his $80 million or whatever it’s going to be.”  I think that Weiner, I’m sure, thinks in his own mind that he made the right choice because he’s a young guy, and he’s looking at the long run.  He wasn’t looking at the short-term advantage.  It would’ve been a tough race. It would’ve been … I think it would be a much competitive race if it was Anthony Weiner versus Mike Bloomberg than it is shaping up to be with Bill Thompson versus Mike Bloomberg.

John Sparks
You addressed what Bill Thompson would have to do in order to prevail in November, but I want to ask you: What must Mike Bloomberg do to hold onto his lead and to win in November?

Listen to Part 4:

Jay DeDapper
Bloomberg has real vulnerabilities, and The Marist Poll, this one and previous ones have pointed it out, and I’ve alluded to at least one of them, people, New Yorkers, the average New Yorker doesn’t think that he understands them nor is particularly concerned about what affects them.  He is seen as a fairly aloof kind of sarcastic, not necessarily very nice rich guy, but he’s also seen as someone who is effective.  And, in this case and in this economy, effectiveness seems to trump likability, at least so far, at least according to the polls.  He has to work on the likability thing though because the danger is that he is seen as even more arrogant than he’s already seen if he simply goes forward assuming that he is going to win because he’s the right guy for the right time, and he’s got the track record to do it.  So, I think you are going to see that.  I think you are going to see the campaign working on trying to make Mike Bloomberg a little less of the out-of-touch billionaire and a little more of the I may not feel your pain, but at least I understand it billionaire.

John Sparks
Jay, do you think there’s any lingering resentment toward Bloomberg over the third term?

Jay DeDapper
I think that if you polled people, and you asked them that question specifically, and the further away we get it from it, it probably diminishes, but there has always been a lot of lingering resentment, at least in the polls that I’ve seen since this — since the term limits went through.  But even at the time that the term limit debate was at its hottest, and the vast majority of New Yorkers said, “We don’t think the term limits should be overturned,” when those same voters were asked:  “Well do you think Mike Bloomberg deserves a third term?” almost the same majority who were opposed to overturning term limits said: “Well, yeah, we think Mike Bloomberg should get a chance at a third term.”  So, there’s a contradiction in voters’ minds, and I don’t think this has hurt him.  I don’t think that whatever lingering resentment there is, I don’t think it’s enough to drive his supporters into the arms of Bill Thompson right now, and Bill hasn’t done a particularly effective job of stoking that resentment.  It’s not an issue we’ve heard very much about in the last three months, and if you can’t make that an issue during the slow summer months, the dog days of August, you’re not going to make it an issue in October I don’t think.

John Sparks
I would think in the short time between the primary and the general that he’s going to really have to mount up an attack on the mayor.  Having said that, do you think that there’s any chance in that short period of time that the mayor will stumble?

Listen to Part 5:

Jay DeDapper
There is. The mayor has shown over his eight years in office a tin ear to the perceptions of him. One of the most egregious cases was when a reporter in a wheelchair in the front row of a news conference inadvertently, or it was thought, had inadvertently played back a little piece of his tape recorder and it sounded like — it was a noise that interrupted the on-going press conference.  And, the mayor castigated him in terms that were just nasty.  It turned out it wasn’t even this guy’s tape recorder, and it took the mayor awhile to apologize.  That kind of thing, and it got some attention in the press, that kind of thing in the heat and the glare of an election battle in the really hot campaigning over the last three or four weeks of campaigning, a talented opponent could take that and really hurt the mayor with it, with that kind of thing.  The mayor is capable of that kind of gaffe.  He’s demonstrated it repeatedly, and he is certain enough of his own success that his closest advisors are not going to keep him — be able to keep him from making a gaffe like that if it’s going to happen.  The question would be: If a gaffe like that happens, would Bill Thompson be able to take advantage of it?  That’s the bigger question to me than will the mayor make a gaffe.

John Sparks
Do you think that the Democrats could’ve fielded a more formidable opponent?

Jay DeDapper
Yes.  Anthony Weiner, the polls showed repeatedly, would’ve been a more formidable opponent, and clearly, here’s a guy who knows how to get free media.  He learned at the feet of Chuck Schumer, the king of free media.  He knows how to get attention. He knows how to throw a punch.  He knows how to appeal to the resentment about the term limits.  He knows how to appeal to the anger there is, especially among ethnic blue-collar workers about the state of the economy and playing outer borough against Manhattan.  He knows how do that, and that’s how you’re going to win.  That’s how you’re going to beat Mike Bloomberg. Not that it would be an easy thing to do, but he would’ve been a formidable candidate.  He was the only name that was out there mentioned that was serious. People talked about Bill Clinton running or something like that.  I mean, yeah, Bill Clinton probably would’ve been a formidable candidate, but in terms of the realistic possible candidates, they could’ve fielded someone better, and his name is Anthony Weiner.

John Sparks
Jay, it’s always interesting to talk about your observations. You’ve covered New York politics for well beyond a decade.  Anything else that you’d like to comment on the mayor’s race?

Listen to Part 6:

Jay DeDapper
I think what’s probably most interesting is this notion, and I’ve alluded to it, but this notion of effectiveness versus likability, and Rudy Giuliani, to some degree, succeeded in the same way.  I remember in 1997, we went out to an African American middle class neighborhood in Queens, St. Albans, after Rudy Giuliani was re-elected overwhelmingly.  Rudy Giuliani had had a terrible relationship with the African American community from … really from 1989 on … but from 1993 his election on … terrible relationship.  He … I don’t recall if he came very close to winning, or he did win in St. Albans.  And, when we talked to people on the street: why?  They all said they didn’t like him, but crime was down.  The streets were safer.  Things were better.  And, I think, at the end of the day, that voters, as much as we talk about how much voters vote just about who they like, who would they most like in their living room, when you’re talking about incumbency, effectiveness trumps likability, and I think there’s case-after-case of that, at least in New York City, where that is true.  And, Mike Bloomberg is not very well liked, but he is well respected, and that, in this year with this economy, with the troubles facing the city, is an advantage that will be very difficult for Bill Thompson to overcome.

Click here to check out Jay DeDapper’s Web site

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9/21: Bloomberg Leads Thompson 50% to 39%

9/21: Bloomberg Approval Rating Steady

Click Here for Exclusive NY Daily News/Marist Poll Numbers

9/17: Gillibrand Gains Name Recognition, But for the Better?

The good news for Senator Kirsten Gillibrand is more voters in New York are familiar with what she is doing in the U.S. Senate.  The bad news, however, is that it all doesn’t translate into a higher job approval rating.

26% of the statewide electorate view Gillibrand as doing an excellent or good job in office, and 9% believe she is performing poorly.  27% are not sure how to rate her.  In Marist’s July survey, a similar proportion — 24% — gave Gillibrand a thumbs-up, 13% thought she was doing poorly in office, and 33% weren’t quite sure how to answer the question.  This adds up to a bump in Gillibrand’s fair rating since July.

Table: Gillibrand Approval Rating
Click here for Complete September 17, 2009 NYS Poll Release and Tables

Gillibrand Loses Edge Against Pataki in Hypothetical Matchup

Time is ticking away to next year’s election for U.S. Senate in New York.  And, there could be some cause for concern for Senator Gillibrand’s camp.  When pitted against former New York Governor George Pataki, Pataki edges Gillibrand 48% to 44%.  The tides have turned against Gillibrand over the last couple of months.  In July, Gillibrand had 46% to Pataki’s 42%.

While Gillibrand maintains a similar degree of support among Democrats, more Republicans and non-enrolled voters have thrown their support behind Pataki.  Currently, 71% of the GOP say they would vote for Pataki while 21% would back Gillibrand.  In July, 63% reported they would support Pataki.  27% would do the same for Gillibrand.  Looking at non-enrolled voters, half are behind Pataki while 42% support Gillibrand.  Two months ago, they were divided, 45% for Gillibrand and 42% for Pataki.

Table: 2010 Gillibrand/Pataki Matchup

Marist Poll Methodology

Related Stories:

9/17: Schumer Approval Rating Nearly 6 in 10

9/17: Resurrect Spitzer?  “No Way,” Say Nearly Seven in Ten

The Marist Poll’s Lee Miringoff discusses Gillibrand’s approval rating:

9/17: Schumer Approval Rating Nearly 6 in 10

Is Senator Chuck Schumer’s approval rating unshakeable?  His latest poll numbers indicate it is.

58% of registered voters in New York State think Senator Schumer is doing either an excellent or good job in office, and just 13% believe he is performing poorly.  When Marist last asked this question in July, 54% gave him above average marks.  He received similar approval ratings in May and March.

Table: Schumer Approval Rating

Marist Poll Methodology

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9/17: Gillibrand Gains Name Recognition, But for the Better?

9/17: Resurrect Spitzer?  “No Way,” Say Nearly Seven in Ten

Click here for Complete September 17, 2009 NYS Poll Release and Tables

9/17: Resurrect Spitzer? “No Way,” Say Nearly Seven in Ten

Controversy-ridden former New York State Governor Eliot Spitzer has refuted rumors that he is looking to seek political office again.  And, perhaps, that’s a good thing.

69% of registered voters in New York State say they do not want Democrat Spitzer to run for statewide office next year.  This includes 62% of Spitzer’s own party, 77% of Republicans, and 72% of non-enrolled voters.

Click here for Complete September 17, 2009 NYS Poll Release and Tables

Does the office make a difference?  Among Democrats in New York State, when Mr. Spitzer is paired in a hypothetical contest against his successor, Governor David Paterson, 60% report they would support the highly unpopular Paterson in next year’s Democratic Primary while 31% would vote for Spitzer.

When it comes to the race for New York State Comptroller, his prospects aren’t much better.  Here, 49% of Democrats in New York State report they would vote for the incumbent, Tom DiNapoli, while 37% say they would cast their ballot for Spitzer. 14% are unsure.

How does Spitzer fare against Senator Kirsten Gillibrand in the Democratic Primary for U.S. Senate?  Gillibrand garners a majority — 57% — while the former governor takes home 29%.  14% are unsure.

Even if Spitzer were to achieve his party’s nomination for U.S. Senate, he would not win the ultimate prize when paired up against former New York Governor George Pataki.  Here, 58% of the statewide electorate would back Pataki compared with one-third who would vote for Spitzer.  Among Democrats, Spitzer squeaks out a slim majority of his own party — 52%.  However, Republicans would be more firmly behind their candidate, Pataki.  86% of New York’s GOP would support him.  61% of non-enrolled voters align with the GOP.

Table: Spitzer to Run for Statewide Office?
Table: 2010 Democratic Primary for NYS Governor — Paterson/Spitzer
Table: 2010 Democratic Primary for NYS Comptroller — DiNapoli/Spiter
Table: 2010 Democratic Primary for U.S. Senate — Gillibrand/Spitzer
Table: 2010 U.S. Senate — Spitzer/Pataki

Marist Poll Methodology

Related Stories:

9/17: Gillibrand Gains Name Recognition, But for the Better?

9/17: Schumer Approval Rating Nearly 6 in 10

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