8/18: 2012 Prospects: Palin a Force in GOP But Not General Electorate

Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin may still be making news headlines, but the U.S. electorate has news for her.  If the 2012 presidential election were held today and she were the Republican candidate, Palin would not defeat President Barack Obama.  In fact, the president would win the election by a considerable margin.

56% of U.S. registered voters report they would cast their ballot for the president while 33% would vote for Palin.  It’s probably not a shock that public opinion divides along party lines.  92% of Democrats would support Obama in this hypothetical contest while 73% of Republicans would back Palin.  Although President Obama does not receive a majority of Independents in this matchup, Obama does win nearly half — 49% — of this key voting group.  Palin receives 34% of their support.

Table: Obama/Palin 2012 Toss-up

(Image courtesy: http://www.flickr.com/photos/lifeisaprayer/ / CC BY-SA 2.0)

No Clear Republican Frontrunner for 2012…Decision to Resign Hurt Palin, Say Voters

While Sarah Palin’s resignation from office has fueled further speculation about a 2012 presidential run, Republicans aren’t giving her a free pass.  In fact, when Republicans including Independents who lean toward the GOP were asked whom they would support if the 2012 Republican presidential primary were held today, 21% report they would back former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.  20% would support Palin, and 19% would vote for former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee.  Further down in the pack are former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich with 10%, Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal with 5% and Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty with 1%.  24% of Republicans including leaners are unsure.

Palin’s decision to step down from office did not help her cause.  In fact, voters say her action hurt her prospects for a presidential bid.  61% of the national electorate thought Palin’s resignation was a bad political move while just 15% report it helps her political aspirations.  The self-proclaimed “soccer mom” doesn’t even gain the affirmation of her own party.  A slim majority of Republicans — 51% — think Palin’s stepping down hurt her political future.  69% of Democrats and 61% of Independents agree.

When it comes to Sarah Palin’s overall favorability, newly-minted private citizen Palin has some damage control to do.  43% of the U.S. electorate views her unfavorably compared with 37% who think positively of her.  20% are unsure.

However, Palin does have some considerable clout within her own party.  Nearly three-quarters of Republicans — 73% — think well of Palin compared with 16% who have the opposite opinion.  Palin currently does not fare well with voters across the aisle.  Just 11% of Democrats hold her in high esteem.

Table: 2012 Presidential Republican Primary
Table: Impact of Palin’s Resignation on 2012 Bid
Table: Palin’s Favorability

Marist Poll Methodology

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Complete August 18, 2009 USA Release & Tables

8/18: For Better or Worse…Palin Packs a Punch in the GOP

If some GOP leaders want Sarah Palin to fade quickly and quietly from the media scene, she is certainly not being particularly cooperative.

With as yet undisclosed electoral plans, Palin packs political clout with rank-and-file Republicans.  According to the latest national Marist Poll numbers, 73% of GOPers have a favorable view of the former Alaska Governor, and she ranks right up there with Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee as their morning line pick for the 2012 presidential sweepstakes.  This is the case despite a slim majority of Republicans who think her early resignation as governor was a mistake.

Is the GOP nomination within her sights?  You betcha!  Palin could carry her intense following into key caucus and primary states.  But, herein lies the rub.  Palin trails President Obama by 23 percentage points nationwide in this same Marist Poll.

Cause for GOP worry?  Absolutely.  Palin attracts only 4% of Democrats in this hypothetical matchup to Obama’s 20% of Republican voters.  President Obama may be slipping lately among all-important Independent voters (his marquee bi-partisan appeal may have lost some of its luster).  But, he still leads Palin by 15 percentage points with these persuadable voters.  And, there is no reverse gender gap in the numbers.

OK … there are still more political scenarios between now and 2012 than there are icicles in Alaska.  But, this one spells potential trouble big-time for the GOP.  John McCain’s 2008 parting gift to the Republican Party may carry over into the 2012 presidential election cycle with GOP hopes of recapturing the White House evaporating along the way.

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8/18: 2012 Prospects: Palin a Force in GOP But Not Within General Electorate

8/14: Is the Economy Recovering?

Has the U.S. economy turned a corner, and how is the Obama Administration handling the nation’s economic conditions?  Dr. Ray Perryman, economist and founder and President of The Perryman Group, offered his take when he spoke with The Marist Poll’s John Sparks.  Read the interview transcript below.

John Sparks
Ray, in our most recent survey, 52% of the American public told The Marist Poll that they approve how President Obama is handling the economy. This is right on the border of being a majority, given the margin of error, so it’s sort of teetering at the midway point. How do you perceive that the Obama administration is handling the economy right now?

Listen to Part 1 of the Interview:

Ray Perryman
Well, it certainly hasn’t been perfect, but I think they’ve done a good job, and I would have been among your 52% if I would have been in the survey. They inherited some significant problems and took some bold actions.  Like a lot of actions that happened with the economy, they get bogged down in bureaucracy. They don’t always move as fast as you would like them to through no fault of anyone. It’s just the nature of the system as it exists today, but on balance, I think the administration’s done a good job.

John Sparks
Now, it’s interesting you mentioned…your belief that he inherited the current economic conditions. In fact, we did poll the public as well, and 74% of the American public told us that they, too, believe that he inherited the current economic conditions, and they are not a result of his own policies. So, I take it that you agree that the problems have been inherited, but when do you think that it will become his problem? In other words, just how patient do you think the American public will be with the president in solving our current economic woes?

Ray Perryman
Well, there’s certainly a lot of people on the other side and a lot of people in various media outlets trying to make it his issue. In fact, even before he was sworn in, some of them were calling it the “Obama Recession,” but I think people do recognize that the seeds of this go way back. A lot of it did happen in President Bush’s administration, but some of it, even the seeds of this were planted in President Clinton’s administration, so it’s not something that happened overnight. It took a series of events and eventualities to make it happen, and a lot of people besides presidents were involved in it. I hope the American people continue to recognize this, but I feel fairly sure over time that number will diminish as people’s memories are just really short on these things.

John Sparks
The mid-term elections will probably be a definitive report card on how the people feel the administration has been handling the economy. Do you have any predictions, if things continue as they are, what we may see next November?

Ray Perryman
Well, I’m not a political forecaster. I’m an economist. But, just making the observations just of what you typically see, you typically see the party out of power make some gains in the mid-term elections. It’ll be interesting to see exactly where the economy is as those elections approach, because if the recovery is in pretty good form, it may work well for the incumbents and the parties in power, but if there’s rising concern about deficits and maybe the economic recovery is not as fast, it’ll favor the ones out of power. I think the stars will add up pretty well for the incumbent, given where I think the economy will be at that time, but nonetheless, I’d be surprised if you didn’t see some attrition just because that’s the typical situation.

John Sparks
50% of the public told us that they believe things are going in the right direction. Now, that certainly is not a vote of confidence. What will it take for folks to believe that we are really, truly headed in the right direction?

Listen to Part 2:

Ray Perryman
Oh, I think as much as anything, it’ll take getting some jobs out there, because if people really focus on that, their job security, that’s very important to people. Their stock market is going back up some and the retirement funds and their savings and their pensions gaining some ground back would also help, although a gross domestic product is one thing, and that’s how we measure the economy. For most individuals, they measure the economy based on their own personal situation, and they’re going to have to fill pretty good about job prospects, their own job, jobs of their friends and neighbors and their retirement plans and the things that affect their daily lives, before I think you see that number go up a great deal.

John Sparks
It’s interesting you mention the gross domestic product. I saw another survey that was taken among private economists that was released this week. It indicated that about 90% of them believe that the recession will probably end in the third quarter, and they cited data showing that the gross domestic product was contracting at about a 1% rate compared to around 6.4% in the first quarter. Housing and labor market indicators also suggest we may be turning the corner. Do you think that’s truly the case that we are indeed turning that corner?

Ray Perryman
I think we are. I was one of the first to say I thought we’d see growth in the third quarter this year. I was saying that in the fourth quarter of last year, and I think that it’s still likely we are likely to see that. And, some of the other indicators are telling us the kinds of things that tells us in a recovery — productivity is going up which typically happens as production goes up and people keep the work force pretty steady. And, the inventory numbers are dropping a little bit which means that shelves are getting cleaned out. So, there’s a lot of things telling us we’re in the early stages of an economic recovery right now. Again, the difficulty with that is while those are the official numbers, those are what folks like myself focus on.  The average individual doesn’t see the gross domestic product. What they see is their own retirement account, their own job prospects and things of that nature.

John Sparks
I think most of us want to believe that we’ve bottomed out and that we’re slowly starting to turn things around, but I said slowly, and there are marked differences in the speed and strength of a recovery, and in this poll that I cited among the private economists, 17% believe it’ll be a V-shaped rebound. And, yet two-thirds believe there’s more likely to be a W-shaped bounce-back with ups and downs along the way. What do you see, and what are folks telling you?

Ray Perryman
Well, what we’re showing is: I don’t think you’ll see a lot of the W in the sense of the gross domestic product fluctuating from positive to negative territory which is how we usually define the so-called “W” recoveries. I think you’re likely to see the momentum be fairly slow at first, what we call a U-shaped recovery, that is a fairly flat bottom for awhile, but then, once it starts coming back, I’ll think you’ll see a lot of momentum getting into it… I would say this one is going to be sort of a modified U-V. It’s going to be a U-shaped at first, but then we’re going to see a pretty steep comeback a few months down the road.

John Sparks
Now, you mentioned a moment ago, joblessness, and of course, the largest concerns are still concerning jobs, and the joblessness is predicted to peak about 10% this year. What do you see on the horizon for the strength of the American workforce? … What do you think we’re likely to see in the next 12 months?

Listen to Part 3:

Ray Perryman
The things you’re likely to see in the next 12 months will be an improvement in the job market, but it’s not likely to happen for a few months. We’re still going to see job losses for the next few months. Hopefully, they will be at a slower pace. We’ve been seeing that. We’re losing 500,000- 600,000 jobs a month earlier in the year. We’re now losing 250,000 jobs in the most recent month. That’s a marked improvement, but it’s a marked improvement in how fast things are going down, and I think it’ll be a few months before you see that turn around. But, in the next year, I think you will start seeing the job market gain momentum. What normally happens is people try to use their existing workforce a lot before they start rehiring as a new recovery starts, simply because they’ve been through a rough time. They don’t want to rehire prematurely.  So, they’ll push their workforce as hard as they can. That’s why you’re seeing the productivity numbers starting to tick-up quite a bit in the recent statistics. Right now, the average work week in this country is somewhere around 33 – 34 hours. During the last recession, it got up ahead of 40 hours before you saw a lot of rehiring.  So, we have a ways to go before you really see the labor market picture pick up, but it will be looking a lot better this time next year.

John Sparks
Energy prices always have a tremendous impact on all aspects of our economy. Oil is on the upswing again.  What kind of impact is that going to have on our economy in the next 12 months?

Ray Perryman
Well, oil prices are up right now, because world demand is beginning to bottom out and come up a little bit, but also simply because of the phenomenon with the dollar.  Because oil is priced in dollars, that can cause movement in oil prices. I think the oil prices will probably be somewhat high coming out of the recession, moving into the recovery phase. But, natural gas prices, a lot of other fuel prices will still be lower, because they’re traded on national rather than global markets. They’re not subject to as much speculation, and there’s some excess supply there. So, I think some aspects of the energy market, you’ll be seeing higher prices, but I think a big chunk of the energy market will probably have sluggish pricing for quite some time.

John Sparks
How do you see the stock market responding to all these factors in the next 12 months?

Ray Perryman
Well, the stock market will be something of a leading indicator, and it’s beginning to sort of see some signs of light and react to those. So, it will be volatile because we’re going to continue to see for a long time, a mixture of numbers. One day, the numbers will point in one direction and the next day, the numbers will point in another direction. It’s going to react to the health care debate. It’s going to react to all kinds of things as the next year unfolds. So, I think you’ll see a lot of volatility, but we should see an upward trend, simply because earnings prospects are going to improve, long-range prospects, I think, people perceive them to be better, and that’s really what the ultimate underlying price of stocks is all about.

John Sparks
Thanks so much, Ray, I appreciate your time.

To learn more about Dr. Ray Perryman, visit The Perryman Group’s website by clicking here!

** The views and opinions expressed in this and other interviews found on this site are expressly those of the speakers or authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Marist Poll.

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8/12: Obama Approval Rating 55% … Loses Majority of Independents

8/14: Let Vick Play, But Not In My Back Yard, Say Football Fans

The Philadelphia Eagles have made the controversial decision to sign Quarterback Michael Vick to a two-year deal.  But, was it a good idea in the eyes of public opinion?

Although Vick was convicted and served prison time for his role in operating a dogfighting ring, a majority of football fans nationwide — 57% — agree with the NFL commissioner’s decision to allow Vick to return to the league.  36% disagree with that decision.  Younger fans and men are more likely to be in favor of the ruling compared with older ones and women.

However, the tides turn when it gets personal.  When asked if fans would want Vick to join their favorite professional football team, 53% report they would not while just 37% say they would.  In Vick’s new backyard, he will have a hard time winning over pigskin fans.  62% of fans living in the Northeast say they would not want Vick quarterbacking for their beloved team.  In fact, more gridiron diehards in that region maintain this view compared with any other area nationwide.

Table: Vick’s NFL Return
Table: Vick’s Signing With Favorite Team

Time Served…Majority Supports Convicted Athletes to Return to Sports

A majority of Americans — 53% — believe sports players who have been convicted of a crime should be allowed to return to the sport after serving their time in prison.  Approximately three in ten — 31% — think they should be banned from the sport for life.  Even more football fans — 60% — report they should be permitted to play.

There is a large gender difference on this question.  64% of men compared with 42% of women say they should be allowed to show their athletic prowess, again.

Table: Sports Players’ Return After Conviction

Marist Poll Methodology

8/14: Voters Divide on Obama’s Handling of Health Care

As the debate over health care reform rages on in Congress and in the public realm, President Barack Obama needs to do more to convince the American electorate that health care reform is the right course of action.  45% of registered U.S. voters say they disapprove of how the president is handling health care while 43% approve.

Not surprisingly, opinion is fractured along party lines with 74% of Democrats approving of how the president is dealing with the issue and 76% of Republicans disapproving of President Obama’s methods.  Independents align with the GOP on this matter.  A majority of Independents — 52% — are unhappy with how Mr. Obama is addressing the health care situation in the United States.  There is also a large racial split.  Overwhelmingly, African American voters approve of how the president is dealing with health care.  87% report President Obama is handling the situation appropriately while just 6% think he is not.  White voters, on the other hand, tip the scales in the opposite direction.  52% of whites disapprove while 38% approve.  Latino members of the electorate fall in the middle with 44% saying they agree with the president’s actions, and 32% reporting they do not.

Table: Handling of Health Care

Majority of Americans: Major Changes Needed, But Health Care Situation Will Not Improve

Although 65% of U.S. residents, including 67% of registered voters nationwide, think the country’s health care system needs major change, many are not optimistic about the impact of health care reform.

If Congress passes health care legislation, just 39% of Americans say health care in this country will get better.  55%, on the other hand, report that it will get worse or stay the same.  Registered voters closely reflect the views of the overall population.

Once again, party affiliation comes into play. 65% of Democrats believe reform will improve the status of the nation’s health care while almost the identical proportion of Republicans — 63% — say it will worsen it.   Looking at Independents, a plurality — 44% — believe reform will be a detriment to the system while 30% say it will be an improvement.

Older Americans are much more pessimistic about the future of the nation’s health care situation than are younger U.S. residents.  Although similar proportions within both age groups believe health care will improve, more residents age 45 and older — 43% — believe it will get worse compared with 32% of their younger counterparts.

How will health care reform affect Americans personally?  Just 28% of U.S. residents think health care for themselves and their families will get better while 67% think it will get worse or remain the same.  This includes nearly one-third of Americans — 32% — who believe it will get worse.  Voters here, too, are in line with the overall population.

Democrats are more optimistic than are Republicans on this question.  42% believe their personal health care situation will improve while 40% think it will stay the same.  Just 13% of Democrats say it will get worse.  Republicans are Democrats’ polar opposites here.  54% of Republicans say their health care will get worse, 31% report it will stay the same, and only 10% think it will get better.

Once again, older Americans are less optimistic than are younger residents.  36% of those 45 and older believe their personal health care circumstances will get worse while 27% of younger residents agree.

Table: Amount of Health Care Reform Needed
Table: Impact of Reform on National Health Care
Table: Impact of Reform on Personal Health Care

Nearly a Quarter to Blame Democrats in Congress if Health Care Doesn’t Meet Expectations

Who do Americans say is most responsible if health care legislation doesn’t live up to their expectations? 24% of residents say it’s the Democrats’ fault, 20% report the pharmaceutical companies are to blame, 15% point the finger at President Obama, 14% would fault the Republicans, and 12% blame doctors and hospitals.

Republicans are playing party politics on this question more than are the Democrats. 40% of Republicans say they would hold the Democrats responsible if health care legislation does not meet their expectations. On the other side of the aisle, Democrats are less likely to point the finger at Republicans.  25% of Democrats say they would hold members of the GOP accountable. More than a quarter of Independents — 26% — believe Democrats would be responsible.  This proportion is followed closely by pharmaceutical companies.

Table: Responsibility for Failing to Meet Expectations

Marist Poll Methodology

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Complete August 14, 2009 USA Release & Tables

8/12: Obama Approval Rating 55% … Loses Majority of Independents

While the Obama Administration is embroiled in a bitter battle to get a health care plan pushed through Congress, President Barack Obama is faring well, overall, in the eyes of a majority of voters.  However, the president’s job performance may have lost a bit of its luster for members of one key voting group for the first time since taking office.

55% of U.S. registered voters approve of the job President Barack Obama is doing in office while 35% say they disapprove.  The president has held his own in the court of public opinion during the last few months.  In The Marist Poll’s June survey, the president received a similar job approval rating — 56%.  These proportions are consistent with those Mr. Obama received in April.  In Marist’s April 27th and April 8th surveys, the president received kudos from 55% and 56% of voters, respectively.

But, is President Obama on a slippery slope with Independent voters?  Currently, 47% of Independents nationwide say they approve of the job the president is doing while 37% disapprove.  This is the first time Obama has lost a majority of Independents since taking office.  In June, 51% believed Obama was meeting their standards, and in Marist’s April 27th and April 8th surveys, 54% and 53%, respectively, thought this way.

There is also movement in the GOP camp.  Although a similar proportion of Republicans — 20% — currently approve of the president’s job performance compared with those in June — 23% — more members of the GOP disapprove of Mr. Obama now.  71% today say they are not pleased with the way the president is running the country.  61% shared this view in June.

Looking at the president’s own party, it’s not surprising that most Democrats — 90% — report that President Obama’s job performance is meeting their standards.  This proportion is little changed from Marist’s previous survey.

Although a majority of the U.S. electorate approves of President Obama’s job performance, the president fails to receive a majority of voters who believe he is changing the country for the better.  Half believe this to be the case while 31% say Mr. Obama is changing the nation for the worse.  15% of voters say he is not altering the country at all.  There has been little change on this question since Marist last asked it in June.

Table: Obama Approval Rating
Table: Direction President is Moving the Country

52% Approve of Economic Handling…Obama Does Not Own Economic Conditions

A slim majority of voters — 52% — say they approve of the way President Obama is handling the economy while 41% disapprove. Little has changed since The Marist Poll last asked this question in June.  At that time, 53% reported they agreed with the way the president is dealing with the nation’s turbulent economy while 41% did not.

There is a clear partisan divide on this issue.  83% of Democrats say they approve of Mr. Obama’s methods while just 18% of Republicans agree.  Similar proportions of Democrats and Republicans held these views in June.

As was the case with the president’s job approval rating, there has been a dip in support among Independent voters.  Currently, this group divides with 47% approving of the president’s handling of the economy and 45% disapproving.  In June, half of Independents supported President Obama’s economic tactics, and in early April, even more Independents thought well of Obama’s economic management.  At that time, 54% of Independents approved of Obama’s handling of the economy.

And, while many Republicans in Congress would like to place ownership of the economy and a host of other issues on President Obama’s plate, they may have a difficult time doing so when it comes to the nation’s financial situation.  Nearly three quarters of voters nationwide — 74% — think the president inherited today’s economic conditions while 18% say they are a result of the president’s own policies.  Even a majority of Republicans — 55% — currently report the president is not to blame for today’s economic conditions.

Table: Handling of the Economy
Table: Current Economic Conditions Inherited

Country Moving In Right Direction, According to Half of U.S Residents

50% of Americans believe the nation is moving in the right direction while 42% think the country is on the wrong course.  These survey results are comparable to those found in Marist’s June survey.

Table: Right Direction or Wrong Direction of the Country?

Marist Poll Methodology

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Complete August 12, 2009 USA Release and Tables

Complete June 2009 USA Poll Tables

Obama Approval Rating Trend Table

8/14: Is the Economy Recovering?

The Marist Poll’s Lee Miringoff discusses the latest Obama numbers:

Miringoff discusses Obama’s approval rating when it comes to the economy on the Fox Business Network: