January 19, 2012

1/19: Vote for Colbert? 18% in South Carolina Kinda Somewhat Likely

Marist Poll

If Stephen Colbert were to run for president of the United States of South Carolina, almost one in five of South Carolina’s potential Republican primary electorate — 18% — say they are at least kinda somewhat likely to cast their ballot for Colbert. This includes 4% who are very likely, 7% who are somewhat likely, and 7% who are kinda somewhat likely to support Colbert. However, 13% report they are not too likely, and 56% say they are not likely at all to back Colbert. Eight percent don’t know enough about him, and 4% are unsure.

Stephen Colbert (Photo Credit: Scott Gries)

Click Here for Complete January 19^th, 2012 South Carolina Marist Poll Release and Tables

However, support for Colbert grows among members of South Carolina’s potential Republican primary electorate who are aware of his possible run. Among these voters, 22% say they are at least kinda somewhat likely to rally for Colbert.

“There’s no doubt Stephen Colbert’s potential run for the presidency of the United States of South Carolina is being noticed,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Not only do nearly one in five tell us they are kinda somewhat likely to support him, but he fares even better with those who are aware of his efforts.”

52% of the potential Republican primary electorate in South Carolina are aware that Stephen Colbert is exploring a potential candidacy for president of the United States of South Carolina. 48% are unaware or are unsure.

South Carolina does not allow for write-in candidates on its ballot. However, Colbert may still be able to judge his support. 21% of the potential Republican primary electorate in the Palmetto State report they would be more likely to vote for former candidate Herman Cain if that vote served as encouragement for Colbert. 62% would be less likely to cast their ballot for Cain, and 9% are unsure.

On the specifics of Herman Cain’s image:

More than three in four members of the potential Republican primary electorate in South Carolina — 76% — think Cain is hard working. 14% say he is not, and 11% are unsure.
A majority — 58% — believes Cain embodies the American dream. 31% do not have this view, and 11% are unsure.
The potential Republican primary electorate in South Carolina divides about Herman Cain’s family values. While 43% think Cain stands for family values, 44% disagree, and 14% are unsure.

Table: Likelihood of Support for Stephen Colbert’s Candidacy
Table: Likelihood of Support for Stephen Colbert’s Candidacy (Combined)
Table: Awareness of Stephen Colbert’s Potential Candidacy for the President
of the United States of South Carolina
Table: Influence on Vote for Herman Cain if Support Encourages Colbert
Table: Agree-Disagree: Herman Cain is Hard Working
Table: Agree-Disagree: Herman Cain Embodies the American Dream
Table: Agree-Disagree: Herman Cain Stands for Family Values

Majority Thinks Colbert Would Be No Better or Worse Than Any Other POTUS of SC

If Colbert were elected president of the United States of South Carolina, 55% of the potential primary electorate believe Colbert would be no better or worse than any of his predecessors. Six percent report he would be one of the best, and 19% think he would be one of the worst. One in five — 20% — is unsure.

While 53% of South Carolina’s potential Republican electorate are satisfied with the current candidates in the race, a notable 41% would like to see someone else enter the contest. Six percent are undecided.

Table: Stephen Colbert’s Potential Legacy as President of the United States
of South Carolina
Table: Satisfaction with Candidates Running for President of United States

Colbert Support Influenced by Possibility of Real Change in Washington

Which factors would make members of the potential Republican primary electorate in South Carolina more likely to vote for Colbert? Bringing about real change in Washington is the key factor. Colbert’s truthiness also ranks high with voters followed by his stands on the issues and his family values.

Voters least like the fact that Stephen Colbert once had a Super PAC or has the same initials as South Carolina. Most are also not likely to vote for him if he were a she.

Key points among South Carolina’s potential Republican primary electorate:

49% of the potential Republican primary electorate would be more likely to support Colbert if he brings about real change in Washington while 37% would be less likely.
When it comes to Colbert’s truthiness, four in ten — 40% — would be more likely to throw their support behind Colbert while 41% would be less likely to do so.
Colbert’s stands on the issues would make 38% more likely to support him. 34% would be less likely to back him.
Regarding his family values, 37% would be more likely to rally for him while 36% would be less likely to do so.
Colbert is from South Carolina. Does that positively impact the vote? 34% of South Carolina’s potential GOP electorate would be more likely to back him while 40% would be less likely to support Colbert.
What about Colbert’s experience talking on television? 26% would be more likely to get behind Colbert while 53% would be less likely to back him.
18% would be more likely to support Colbert knowing that he is the most viable TV candidate. 62% are less likely.
If Colbert were a woman named Stephanie Colbert, 14% would be more likely to rally for Colbert while 66% would be less likely to tout him.
Having the same initials as South Carolina hurts Colbert’s level of support. Only 13% would be more likely to back him while 70% would be less likely to throw their support toward Colbert.
The fact that Colbert once had a Super PAC is least liked. Here, 10% of the potential Republican primary electorate would be more likely to back Colbert while 63% would be less likely to do so.

Defining People

Three in four members of the potential Republican primary electorate — 75% — think only people are people while 19% believe corporations are people. Six percent are unsure.

Table: Definition of People

Getting Serious

More than four in ten members of South Carolina’s potential Republican electorate — 41% — report this is the most serious poll they have ever participated in. 58% say it is not, and 2% are unsure.

Table: Are You Serious?

This Marist Poll was sponsored by Americans for a Better Tomorrow, Tomorrow.

How the Survey Was Conducted

Nature of the Sample