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11/24: Looking to 2012: 48% Plan to Vote Against Obama


11/24: Looking to 2012: 48% Plan to Vote Against Obama

If the 2012 presidential election were held today, President Barack Obama would have his work cut out for him.  48% of registered voters nationwide report they plan to definitely vote against Mr. Obama while 36% say they will definitely vote for him.  16% are undecided.



Click Here for Complete USA McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables

The president needs to make inroads with independent voters.  Half — 50% — report they definitely will not support him in his re-election bid.  Three in ten say they definitely plan to vote for him, and 20% are undecided.

“As the electoral page turns from the mids to 2012, President Obama starts off, not surprisingly, in a somewhat tenuous position,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

Table: Definitely Vote For or Against President Obama in 2012

Dems Divide Over 2012 Primary Challenge for Obama

There have been rumblings in the political sphere about another Democrat challenging President Obama for the party’s nomination in 2012.  And, in fact, Democrats and Democratic leaning independent voters divide about the idea.  46% do not want such a challenge to occur, but 45% do.  Nine percent are unsure.

  • 40% of Democrats and Democratic leaning independents prefer a more conservative challenger while 39% want one who is more liberal.  22% are unsure.
  • Interestingly, a plurality of Democrats — 42% — would like to see a more liberal challenger while half of Democratic leaning independents — 50% — would like to see a more conservative one.

Table: Challenge to Obama in 2012 Primaries
Table: Ideology of Potential 2012 Democratic Challenger

Plurality Support Obama in Hypothetical Three-Way 2012 Matchup

If President Obama were to face off against Republican Sarah Palin and independent New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg in 2012, 45% of registered voters nationally say they would vote for Obama, 31% would support Palin, and 15% would cast their ballot for Bloomberg.  Nine percent are undecided.

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Matchup: Obama/Palin/Bloomberg

But, What Are Palin’s Odds of Receiving the GOP Nomination?

Looking at the contest for the 2012 Republican nominee for president, there is no clear front-runner.  If the Republican presidential primary were held today, 20% of Republicans and Republican leaning independents say they would support former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney while former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee receives 16% of the vote.  Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin garners 13%, and former Georgia Congressman Newt Gingrich is buoyed by the support of 10% of Republicans and Republican leaning independents.  New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and Texas Governor Rick Perry get 9% and 5%, respectively.  Four percent report they would vote for Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels while Indiana Congressman Mike Pence is favored by 3%.  Former New York State Governor George Pataki, Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, and Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour round out the possible field with 3%, 2%, and 1%, respectively.  14% are undecided.

Even among Republicans and Republican leaning independent voters who support the Tea Party, the GOP field is open.

Table: 2012 Republican Presidential Primary

61% of Voters Say, “No,” to a President Bloomberg

About six in ten registered voters nationally — 61% — do not want New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg to run for president.  12% would like Bloomberg to take to the national stage while 27% are unsure.

Table: Bloomberg for President

McClatchy-Marist Poll Methodology

Related Story:
Voters Divide Over Obama’s Approval Rating

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  16. mike walden

    October 22, 2011 at 6:14 PM

    For those that watch FOX news or read the Wall Street Journal, it might be hard to not hear about the damages that the Obama Care health care bill unleashes. Not only does it worsen the budget deficit, but it hits the pocketbooks of the poverty-level Americans that will be forced to purchase health insurance or face fines and penalties. It places additional burdens on the medical field and limits fees that surgeons, medical specialists, anesthesiologists and others in the medical field can charge, discouraging some that want to go into this field.

  17. Jason Pyktel

    October 18, 2011 at 5:39 PM

    I voted for Obama’s competitor last year my father said if did not would not talk to me know more & wanted to vote for Obama. I am glad I did not vote for Obama.

    I am against Obama & hope for a better different president. Where’s the so called Peace he was talking about. Hum.

  18. Kumarakom Houseboat

    September 20, 2011 at 7:34 AM

    “48% Plan to Vote Against Obama”..
    Are you sure this will stay until the elections in 2012. Anyway dollar rates are going high. Let us hope for better America….

  19. freddy E

    April 24, 2011 at 10:15 PM

    obama is a fraud. He has betrayed his followers. He is a warmonger, expanding the war in Afg. – still fighting in Iraq, drone bombing both Pakistan and Libya.

    He loses every position before he starts! When a proposal gets too much flak, which it inevitably does, he runs and hides. He does not fight for anything and has not the faintest idea how to muster support for anything. Consequently, he winds up being one step to the left of the right wing.

    He is a disaster and deserves to lose in 2012.

    if the republicans can simply pick someone who is not repulsive, they should kick obama’s ***.

    I will not vote for the man and I have voted democratic in every presidential race since McGovern in ’72.

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  21. Joseph

    January 21, 2011 at 2:42 PM

    Who knows what can happen in the next two years. With so many undecided voters, it seems to be anyone’s game at this stage.

  22. Ronbo

    November 27, 2010 at 11:19 AM

    I would like to see the questions. These polls are almost always “gamed” towards a preferred answer. Let’s face it, rich old white media owners are not exactly of the “liberal” variety.

    Without seening the actual question, this is worthless. It might as well be in the USA Today.

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  24. MikeNad

    November 24, 2010 at 7:54 PM

    A truly useless poll from the truly useless McClatchy. Republican-Leaning Independents are you kidding. There is only two states that Independents can vote in the Republican Primary- New Hampshire and Michigan. Bloomberg are you kidding. Republicans are not going to vote for Bloomberg over Palin in a 3 Way Matchup 25% of Republican-Independent Voters would never vote for Bloomberg over Palin. Bloomberg is practically as liberal as Obama. 5.5 % Margin of Error. More like a 100% margin of error.

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