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10/30: Bloomberg Leads Thompson by 15 Points Among Likely Voters


10/30: Bloomberg Leads Thompson by 15 Points Among Likely Voters

The race for New York City mayor is in the homestretch, and if today were Election Day, Mayor Michael Bloomberg would handily win a third term.  Bloomberg currently leads Democratic challenger Bill Thompson — 53% to 38% — among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  Bloomberg’s lead among likely voters is consistent with the results of a Marist survey last week when Bloomberg received 52% to Thompson’s 36%.

Michael Bloomberg and Bill Thompson

Michael Bloomberg and Bill Thompson

Looking at political party, 45% of likely Democratic voters report they will back Bloomberg on Tuesday while 47% say they will support Thompson.  On the Republican side, 74% of likely GOP voters are behind Bloomberg compared with 17% for Thompson.  60% of non-enrolled voters back Bloomberg, and 27% say they will cast their ballot for Thompson.

Among registered voters citywide, Bloomberg leads Thompson, 48% to 37%, a difference of 11 percentage points.  Last week, Bloomberg garnered 47% of registered voters’ support while Thompson received 38%, a gap of 9 percentage points.

Table: 2009 Race for Mayor in New York City — Likely Voters Including Leaners
Table: 2009 Race for Mayor in New York City — Registered Voters
Click Here for Complete October 30, 2009 NYC Poll Release and Tables

Three-Quarters of Likely Voters Strongly Committed to Candidate

75% of likely voters citywide say they will not waver when it comes to their choice of candidate.  An additional 20% report, regardless of whom they are planning to support, they are somewhat committed to their pick, and just 4% say they might change their minds before Tuesday.

The proportion of likely voters who strongly back their choice of candidate has grown since Marist last asked voters about their intensity of support.  Last week, 65% said they will definitely not change their vote come Election Day.  At that time, 26% were somewhat behind their candidate, and 8% reported they might change their vote.

Both Bloomberg and Thompson currently enjoy firm backing from their respective supporters.  77% of Bloomberg’s supporters and 73% of Thompson’s backers say they are firmly committed to their candidate.  Last week, those proportions were 71% for Bloomberg and 57% for Thompson.

Table: Intensity of Support

A Tale of Two Candidates’ Favorability Ratings

Mayor Bloomberg’s favorability rating is on solid ground.  61% of registered voters say they have a positive view of the mayor while 32% of voters report they have an unflattering opinion of the mayor.  These proportions are little changed from Marist’s previous poll when 63% rated the mayor favorably and 33% had a negative perception of him.

Bill Thompson’s favorability ratings have also not changed significantly since last week.  44% of voters maintain a positive impression of the comptroller, and 31% hold him in a negative light.  25% say they are either unsure how to rate him or have never heard of him.  Last time, 47% viewed Thompson favorably, 33% held a negative impression of him, and 20% were unsure how to rate him.

Table: Bloomberg Favorability
Table: Thompson Favorability

Voters Care About Term Limits, But Does It Make a Difference?

Mayor Bloomberg’s action to extend term limits from two to three terms is not a deciding factor for 45% of voters.  Although a large proportion of voters — 43% — says it makes them less likely to vote for the mayor, this number has not grown through the course of the campaign.  9% report his action will make them more likely to vote for him.

Table: Term Limits and Bloomberg

Marist Poll Methodology

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10/30: Bloomberg’s Approval Rating at 54%

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  1. electric oil

    March 8, 2010 at 1:10 PM

    you have great blog my man, nice share, iam very interested about this page.

    good luck!

  2. Marvin

    November 15, 2009 at 2:10 PM

    It’s interesting how far off this poll was. No disrespect to your polling, I know it’s usually quite on target. But it certainly must give hope to politicians in the future who are down in a poll.. they can point to this and say… we can maybe make up 10 points. you never know until the votes are actually counted.

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  5. Mike from Queens

    November 1, 2009 at 2:09 AM

    Bloomberg’s changing of term limits is a knock on Democracy, anyone that thinks this rich man is for the little working guy is crazy. He said ” I LOVE THE RICH PEOPLE” when asked to put a tax on millionaire’s. He is from Boston not New York. He say he rides the subway, The post followed him from his home to City Hall. He took an SUV to skip the local stops and all he had to ride was 1 express stop. IF you heard the last debate , Bloomberg said he wants to develop the entire city. That should scare anyone the way this city abuses EMINENT DOMAIN law. Aks the people who Bruce Ratner is trying to evict in the Atlantic Yards project of a Nets arena and Luxury Buildings. Bloomberg and his developer buddies have their hands all over that project with sweetheart deals.

  6. Mike from queens

    October 31, 2009 at 2:52 AM

    I see my fellow New Yorkers have short memories on how BAD Bloomberg is for NYC. Term limits meant no VOTE for NYers because Bloomberg waited purposely until it was too late to get it on last years ballot. Bloomberg was AFRAID to let NYers vote becaise it would mean a DEFEAT. A DEFEAT meant he would not be able to run again. He promised the City Council pork for their districts for their votes. His lapdog Christine Quinn made that happen. A vote for Bloomberg is a DEFEAT for DEMOCRACY. Don’t believe Bloomberg on the schools, kids are only taught to the test. Ask any teacher, I have. They do not do their own lesson plans. The teachers use one provided for them. The standards were lowered so more kids could pass. The kids in Ny do not rate well nationally on the REGENTS. Most High School grads in NYC need remedial courses just to get into COmmunity Colleges. Where is the progress Bloomberg is talking about. Affrodable Housing and the middle class–WHAT A JOKE , ask people in Long Island City Queens(where I live)Williamsburg Brooklyn, Atlantic Yards in Carroll Gardens BrooklynWillets Point Queens even Chinatown. People are being displaced from their homes by OVER DEVELOPMENT, being replaced by LUXURY CONDOS, which are half empty due to the prices. Yuppies who only care about themselves are moving in (mostly from out of town) and transforming these neighborhoods the way they want them. No drug stores, movie theaters, candy stores, pool halls, bowling alleys, Supermarkets. We get boutiques for hair and dogs and cat, wine stores, art places, health food stores with exhorbitant prices. These polls tell me New Yorkers haven’t taken the time to educate themselves about Bloomberg or Thompson. To me however, to allow Bloomberg to flout Democracy on Term Limits is the defining point. He should be voted out on Nov. 3, along with everyone else who voted to overturn them. 4 council members already felt voter backlash in the primaries and were voted out. As for Bloomberg on Transit , he had 8 years to make it better and why should we believe him now. Homelessness has gone up 45% under his watch, he even skipped a forum on Homelessness but did attend a pep rally for the Yankees this week. Please to save this city Don’t re-elect Bloomberg. NYC can’t afford 4 more years of Bloomberg.

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