10/3: Obama Up by 8 Percentage Points in Ohio

October 3, 2012 by  
Filed under Election 2012, Featured, NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll

President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden lead Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, 51% to 43%, among likely voters in Ohio, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  One percent supports another candidate, and 4% are undecided.

“Obama is over 50% in the battle for Ohio’s 18 electoral votes,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “His advantage over Romney continues to be fueled by a wide lead among women and a close contest for the support of men.”

Click Here for Complete October 3, 2012 Ohio NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Release

Click Here for Complete October 3, 2012 Ohio NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Tables

When NBC News/WSJ/Marist last reported this question in September, Obama and Biden — 50% — had a 7 point advantage over Romney and Ryan — 43% — among likely voters in Ohio, including those who were undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  One percent backed another candidate, and 6% were undecided.

Key points:

  • Party ID.  Most Democrats who are likely to vote — 95% — are behind Obama while most Republicans who are likely to vote — 91% — back Romney.  Among independent voters, 47% support Obama compared with 43% for Romney.  Last month, 44% of independent voters backed Romney while 41% supported Obama.
    • Enthusiasm.  56% of likely voters are very enthusiastic about voting in November.  Looking at each candidate’s supporters, Romney’s backers who are likely to go to the polls — 64% — are slightly more enthusiastic than Obama’s supporters who are likely to cast a ballot — 57%.  In NBC News/WSJ/Marist’s September survey, Romney — 62% — and Obama — 61% — were on fairly equal footing when it came to enthusiasm.
    • Intensity of support.  86% of Ohio likely voters are firmly committed to their choice of candidate while 12% somewhat support their pick.  Two percent might change their minds, and less than one percent is unsure.  Among likely voters who support the president, 88% strongly support him compared with 83% of Romney’s backers who report the same.
    • Gender.  Obama — 56% — has the advantage over Romney — 39% — among women who are likely to vote.  Among men who are likely to cast a ballot, 48% are for Romney while 46% support Obama.
    • Age.  Younger voters favor the president.  60% of Ohio likely voters under the age of 30 support Obama compared with 33% for Romney.  Obama — 54% — also leads Romney — 41% — among those who are 30 to 44.  Looking at those 45 to 59, 47% support the president while 46% are behind Romney.  Among those who are 60 and older, Obama receives 49% to 46% for Romney.

Looking at registered voters in Ohio including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, 51% support Obama while 42% are for Romney.  Two percent are behind another candidate, and 5% are undecided.

Table: 2012 Presidential Tossup (OH Likely Voters with Leaners)

Table: Enthusiasm to Vote (OH Likely Voters)

Table: Intensity of Support (OH Likely Voters)

Table: 2012 Presidential Tossup (OH Registered Voters with Leaners)

Majority Perceives Obama Favorably…51% Have Unfavorable Impression of Romney

52% of Ohio likely voters have a favorable view of Obama while 44% have an unfavorable opinion of him.  Three percent are unsure.

In NBC News/WSJ/Marist’s September survey, similar proportions had these views.  51% of likely voters thought well of the president.  44% had a less than stellar view of him, and 5% were unsure.

Romney continues to have an image problem in Ohio.  51% of likely voters statewide have an unfavorable impression of Romney compared with 42% who have a positive opinion of him.  Eight percent are unsure.

Last month, 50% of likely voters had an unfavorable view of Romney while 40% thought well of him.  Nine percent, at the time, were unsure.

Table: President Barack Obama Favorability (OH Likely Voters)

Table: Mitt Romney Favorability (OH Likely Voters)

Veeps Don’t Stand Out to Ohio Voters

46% of likely voters in Ohio have an unfavorable opinion of Vice President Joe Biden.  44% have a positive view of him.   10% are unsure.

When NBC News/WSJ/Marist last reported this question in September, 46% had an unfavorable perception of Biden while 45% had a positive view of him.  Nine percent, then, were unsure.

Looking at voters’ impressions of Paul Ryan, a plurality of likely voters — 44% — views him unfavorably while 40% have a favorable opinion of him.  16% are unsure.

In September, likely voters divided.  42% had an unfavorable opinion of Ryan while 41% had a favorable one.  17% were unsure.

Table: Vice President Joe Biden Favorability (OH Likely Voters)

Table: Paul Ryan Favorability (OH Likely Voters)

Obama Edges on Economy, Perceived Better on Foreign Policy

Which candidate will do a better job handling the nation’s economy?  48% of registered voters in the state think Obama is the candidate for the job while 44% believe Romney is better prepared to tackle the issue.  Eight percent are unsure.  Similar proportions of likely voters share these views.  48% have more confidence in the president to turn around the U.S. economy while 45% have this opinion of Romney.  Seven percent are unsure.

When NBC News/WSJ/Marist last reported this question in September, 48% of registered voters thought Obama was the better candidate for the economy.  43% said Romney would do a better job on the issue.  Nine percent were unsure.

On the issue of foreign policy, Obama — 51% — leads Romney — 39%.  Nine percent are unsure.  Likely voters agree.  51% of these voters believe the president is more capable to deal with foreign policy issues while 40% say Romney is better skilled in this area.  Eight percent are unsure.

Last month, Obama — 52% — was also perceived as the stronger candidate on foreign policy issues by registered voters.  38%, however, thought Romney surpassed Obama in this area.  10% were unsure.

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling the Economy (OH Registered Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling the Economy (OH Likely Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling Foreign Policy (OH Registered Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling Foreign Policy (OH Likely Voters)

Voters Divide about President Obama’s Job Performance

When it comes to President Obama’s job performance, 48% of registered voters approve while 46% disapprove.  Six percent are unsure.

In NBC News/WSJ/Marist’s previous survey, 49% gave the president high marks while 44% thought he fell short.  Seven percent, at the time, were unsure.

Table: President Obama Approval Rating in Ohio (OH Registered Voters)

A Nation Off Course?

52% of registered voters in Ohio believe the nation is moving in the wrong direction.  42% disagree and believe it is traveling in the right one.  Five percent are unsure.

In September, 51% said the nation needed a new course.  44% said the nation was on track, and 5% were unsure.

Table: Right or Wrong Direction of the Country (OH Registered Voters)

Brown Maintains Advantage Over Mandel in U.S. Senate Race

50% of likely voters in Ohio, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, support Democrat Sherrod Brown in the race for U.S. Senate.  41%, however, are for Republican Josh Mandel.  One percent supports another candidate, and 7% are undecided.

Brown — 49% — was also ahead of Mandel — 42% — among likely voters statewide in NBC News/WSJ/Marist’s previous survey.  Nine percent, at that time, were undecided.

Among registered voters, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, Brown has 50% to 41% for Mandel.  One percent supports another candidate, and 8% are undecided.

Table: 2012 U.S. Senate Tossup in Ohio: Brown/Mandel (OH Likely Voters with Leaners)

Table: 2012 U.S. Senate Tossup in Ohio: Brown/Mandel (OH Registered Voters with Leaners)

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

Comments

6 Responses to “10/3: Obama Up by 8 Percentage Points in Ohio”

  1. pete kent on October 3rd, 2012 7:14 am

    Poll still seems to find a lot more Democrats in a state where GOPers have a registration advantage of +1. If the turnout model is like 2004 then the poll has a Dem oversample of +10.

    @petekent01 on Twitter

  2. Polls Show Voters Divided Ahead of Debate - NYTimes.com on October 3rd, 2012 1:41 pm

    [...] Ohio, Mr. Obama has an 8-point lead among likely voters, according to a new NBC/Marist/Wall Street Journal poll, driven in part by strong support among women and young voters, and a small edge among [...]

  3. Marist poll: Obama up 8 in Ohio | Politics Extra on October 3rd, 2012 7:45 pm

    [...] NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll also found 86 % are firmly committed to their candidate [...]

  4. Why Republicans are spending so much money to defeat Sherrod Brown on October 10th, 2012 10:10 am

    [...] tier of close contests. The last two live-caller surveys showed Brown leading Mandel by 10 and nine points, respectively. Automated Republican-leaning pollster Rasmussen Reports more recently showed [...]

  5. Why Republicans are spending so much money to defeat Sherrod Brown | on October 10th, 2012 10:47 am

    [...] tier of tighten contests. The final dual live-caller surveys showed Brown heading Mandel by 10 and nine points, respectively. Automated Republican-leaning pollster Rasmussen Reports more recently showed [...]

  6. Democrats ahead or tied in four of five battleground Senate races, polls show on October 11th, 2012 12:16 pm

    [...] percent to 41 percent, a margin largely unmoved from Brown’s 50 percent to 41 percent lead in the previous poll. GOP groups have spent more than $20 million trying to dislodge Brown, but given the current state [...]

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