October 26, 2014
10/26: Kansas: Orman and Roberts Neck and Neck in U.S. Senate Race… Davis and Brownback Closely Matched in Governor’s Contest
Independent Greg Orman, 45%, and Republican incumbent Pat Roberts, 44%, are in a fierce battle for U.S. Senate in Kansas among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early.
Voters’ impressions of the candidates are crucial in this contest. While Roberts is still unpopular, his favorable rating has improved. In contrast, Orman’s negatives have gone up.
Breaking the partisan gridlock in Washington is the top concern of likely voters in Kansas followed by jobs. Orman outpaces Roberts among likely voters who see ending gridlock as the most important issue in this election. Roberts has a narrow advantage among those who are most concerned about jobs.
In the Kansas governor’s race, Democratic challenger Paul Davis has 45% to 44% for Republican incumbent Sam Brownback among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early.
Complete October 26, 2014 NBC News/Marist Poll of Kansas
“There’s nothing like the possibility of a U.S. Senator from Kansas caucusing with the Democrats to make some voters rethink their choice for Senate,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Orman’s initial double-digit lead over Roberts has evaporated, and the contest is now a tossup.”
Poll Points U.S. Senate:
- Orman, 45%, and Roberts, 44%, are in a virtual dead heat in the race for U.S. Senate in Kansas among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early. Libertarian candidate Randall Batson receives 4%. Orman, 48%, had a 10 point advantage over Roberts, 38%, among likely voters earlier this month.
- Independent Orman, 60%, has a 34 percentage point lead over Roberts, 26%, among independents likely to vote, similar to his 30 point advantage in NBC News/Marist’s previous survey.
- Roberts’ support among non-whites likely to vote has gone up to 35% from 24%, and his backing among white voters has also increased to 45% from 40%.
- Although Roberts still trails Orman among women, his support among these likely voters is 41%, up from 34% previously. Roberts also leads Orman by 6 points among men. He previously trailed Orman by 2 points.
- 53% of likely voters with a candidate preference including early voters strongly support their choice for U.S. Senate. This is an increase from 43% in early October. Looking at each of the candidate’s supporters, 57% of Orman’s backers are strongly committed to him while 52% of voters for Roberts are firmly in his corner. But, 9% of Orman’s supporters say they may vote differently compared with only 4% of Roberts’ backers.
- Among registered voters in Kansas including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early, Orman has 45% to 42% for Roberts. Batson garners 4%.
- Roberts’ favorable rating among likely voters, 43%, has improved from 37% a few weeks ago.
- Orman’s negatives, 37%, have gone up from 26% among Kansas’ likely voters.
- When it comes to the most important issue in deciding their vote for Congress, breaking the partisan gridlock in Washington, 26%, tops the list. Job creation and economic growth, 17%, health care, 12%, Social Security and Medicare, 11%, military action against ISIS, 9%, and the deficit and government spending, 8%, follow. Immigration, 5%, and looking out for the interests of women, 2%, round out the list.
Poll Points Governor:
- Looking at the Kansas governor’s race, Davis has 45% to 44% for Brownback, among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early. Libertarian Keen Umbehr has 5%. Davis and Brownback were closely matched, 44% to 43%, respectively, earlier this month.
- 60% of likely voters with a candidate preference including early voters, compared with 55% previously, are firmly committed to their choice of candidate for governor. Seven percent might vote differently. 62% of Brownback’s supporters and 60% of Davis’ backers are strongly committed to their candidate.
- Among registered voters in Kansas including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early, Davis, 43%, and Brownback, 43%, tie. Umbehr receives 6%.
- A plurality of likely voters in the state continues to view Davis favorably, 43%, but he is still not well-defined. He is not well-known to almost one in four likely voters, 23%. Brownback’s favorable rating remains upside down, 42% to 50%.
- A majority of Kansas residents, 55%, disapproves of the job President Barack Obama is doing in office while 33% approve. Obama’s approval rating stood at 35% earlier this month.