10/24: Obama Leads Romney by 26 Percentage Points in New York

October 24, 2012 by  
Filed under Featured, NY State, NY State Poll Archive, Politics

In one of the bluest of the blue states, President Barack Obama has the support of 61% of New York likely voters, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted absentee.  This compares with 35% for Mitt Romney.  Only 1% supports another candidate, and 3% are undecided.  President Obama won the state in 2008, 63% to 36% for McCain.

No surprises in New York,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “It has been and continues to be a very blue state.  Senator Kirsten Gilibrand is running ahead of her score two years ago and ahead of Obama.”

Click Here for Complete October 24, 2012 NYS NY1/YNN-Marist Poll Release and Tables

Key points:

  • Party.  87% of Democrats who are likely to vote support the president while 77% of Republicans who are likely to cast a ballot are for Romney.  Nearly one in five likely Republican voters — 18% — is behind Obama.  Among non-enrolled voters who are likely to go to the polls, a majority — 54% — backs Obama while 37% are for Romney.
  • Enthusiasm.  57% of likely voters in New York are very enthusiastic about casting their ballot next month.  Looking at each candidate’s supporters, 60% of likely voters behind Obama express a high degree of enthusiasm.  This compares with 55% of those who back Romney.
  • Intensity of Support.  More than eight in ten likely voters in New York — 82% — are firmly committed to their choice of candidate.  16% somewhat support their pick while just 3% might vote differently on Election Day.  Less than 1% is unsure.  83% of Obama’s supporters are firmly in his camp while a similar proportion of Romney’s backers — 80% — say they will not waver in their support.
  • Gender.  62% of women who are likely to vote support the president while 33% are for Romney.  It’s a similar story among men who are likely to cast a ballot.  59% are behind Obama compared with 37% for Romney.
  • Age.  Regardless of age, Obama leads Romney.  67% of likely voters under 45 years old support the president.  This compares with 29% for Romney.  Among those who are 45 and older, Obama — 57% — outpaces Romney — 38%.

Among registered voters in New York, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted absentee, Obama receives the support of 62% to 32% for Romney.  Two percent are behind another candidate, and 4% are undecided.

Table: 2012 Presidential Tossup (NY Likely Voters with Leaners and Absentee)

Table: Enthusiasm to Vote (NY Likely Voters)

Table: Intensity of Support (NY Likely Voters)

Table: 2012 Presidential Tossup (NY Registered Voters with Leaners and Absentee)

A Tale of Two Favorability Ratings

More than six in ten likely voters in New York — 63% — have a favorable impression of Obama.  35%, though, have an unfavorable perception of the president.  Two percent are unsure.

The opposite is true for Romney.  A majority — 54% — has an unfavorable view of him while 41% have a positive opinion of him.  Four percent are unsure.

Table: President Barack Obama Favorability (NY Likely Voters)

Table: Mitt Romney Favorability (NY Likely Voters)

Obama Bests Romney on Economy, Foreign Policy

Which candidate do registered voters think will do a better job handling the economy?  57% believe Obama is more capable while 36% say Romney is the candidate for the job.  Seven percent are unsure.

Likely voters agree.  56% of New York likely voters think Obama will turn around the U.S. economy compared with 38% who say Romney will.  Five percent are unsure.

When it comes to foreign policy, the president — 62% — outdistances Romney — 32% — among New York registered voters.  Five percent are unsure.  Voters were interviewed prior to Monday night’s debate on the topic.

Among likely voters, 62% think Obama is the stronger candidate in the foreign policy realm while 34% believe Romney is.  Four percent are unsure.

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling the Economy (NY Registered Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling the Economy (NY Likely Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling Foreign Policy (NY Registered Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling Foreign Policy (NY Likely Voters)

Gillibrand Leads Long by Nearly Three to One in U.S. Senate Race in New York

In the U.S. Senate race in New York, Democratic incumbent Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has the support of 68% of likely voters, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted absentee.  Her Republican challenger, Wendy Long, receives the backing of 24% of these voters.  Less than 1% is for another candidate, and 8% are undecided.

Key points:

  • Party.  89% of Democrats who are likely to vote support Gillibrand while 54% of Republicans who are likely to cast a ballot are for Long.  However, even 34% of likely Republican voters are behind Gillibrand.  Looking at non-enrolled voters statewide, 64% back Gillibrand compared with 27% for Long.
  • Region.  Regardless of region, Gillibrand is ahead of Long.  In New York City, Gillibrand has 77% to 16% for Long, among likely voters.  Gillibrand — 65% — also outpaces Long — 26% — in the suburbs of New York City.  Upstate, Gillibrand has 62% to Long’s 29%.

Among registered voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted absentee, 68% support Gillibrand while 22% back Long.  One percent is behind another candidate, and 8% are undecided.

Table: 2012 U.S. Senate Tossup in New York: Gillibrand/Long (NY Likely Voters with Leaners and Absentee)

Table: 2012 U.S. Senate Tossup in New York: Gillibrand/Long (NY Registered Voters with Leaners and Absentee)

A First for Gillibrand…Majority Approves of Job Performance

Senator Kirsten Gillibrand’s approval rating has climbed above 50% among registered voters for the first time since she took office in March of 2009.  55% think Gillibrand is doing either an excellent or good job.  This includes 13% who believe Gillibrand’s performance is excellent and 42% who say she is doing a good job.  28% rate her performance as fair while 8% report Gillibrand is performing poorly.  10% are unsure.

In NY1/YNN-Marist’s April survey, 42% of registered voters statewide gave Gillibrand high marks.  28% believed she was doing a fair job while 14% thought she fell short.  16%, at the time, were unsure.

Gillibrand has made in-roads with her Democratic base.  63% of Democrats in New York praise her job performance.  This compares with 50% six months ago.  Gillibrand’s approval rating has also experienced a boost among non-enrolled voters statewide.  48% now give Gillibrand high marks compared with 32% in April.  There has been a slight increase among Republicans.  47% currently believe Gillibrand is doing well in her post compared with 40% in NY1/YNN-Marist’s previous survey.

Regionally, the largest change has occurred in New York City where 61% of registered voters applaud Gillibrand’s job performance.  In April, just 36% said the same.  In the suburbs of the city, 54% think well of the job the senator is doing in office, up from 38% six months ago.  Upstate, 50% of registered voters give Gillibrand kudos compared with 48% previously.

Table: Gillibrand Approval Rating (NY Registered Voters)

Table: Gillibrand Approval Rating (NY Registered Voters Over Time)

Schumer’s Approval Rating Steady

Senator Chuck Schumer’s job approval rating is consistent.  55% of New York registered voters give Schumer a thumbs-up.  Included here are 18% who think he is doing an excellent job and 37% who believe he is doing a good one.  27% rate his job performance as fair while 13% say it is subpar.  Five percent are unsure.

In April, 54% of registered voters thought highly of Schumer’s performance in office while one in four — 25% — said he was doing a fair job.  16% thought he fell short, and 5% were unsure.

Table: Schumer Approval Rating (NY Registered Voters)

Table: Schumer Approval Rating (NY Registered Voters Over Time)

Nearly Six in Ten Applaud Cuomo’s Job Performance

Looking at the approval rating of Governor Andrew Cuomo, 59% of registered voters in New York, including 15% who think he is doing an excellent job and 44% who say he is doing a good one, approve of the governor’s job performance.  30% rate it as fair, and 7% believe he misses the mark.  Only 3% are unsure.

Since Cuomo took office, he has enjoyed positive approval ratings.  In NY1/YNN-Marist’s April survey, 58% of registered voters praised Cuomo’s job performance.  29% thought it was average, and 9% believed it was subpar.  Five percent, then, were unsure.

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Approval Rating (NY Registered Voters)

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Approval Rating Over Time (NY Registered Voters)

Optimism about NY State Grows to Highest Level in a Decade

When thinking about the direction of New York State, a majority — 56% — believes the Empire State is moving in the right direction.  This is the largest proportion of registered voters statewide to have this view since September of 2002 when the same proportion — 56% — believed New York was on the right track.  Currently, 39% think the state is traveling in the wrong direction, and 6% are unsure.

When NY1/YNN-Marist last reported this question six months ago, 51% of registered voters said the state was on target.  43%, however, thought it had fallen off-course, and 6% were unsure.

Table: Direction of NYS (NY Registered Voters)

Table: Direction of NYS (NY Registered Voters Over Time)

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

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